1. Josh Allen (0-0) @ DeShaun Watson (0-1)
This is a real matchup of inexperienced playoff QBs. During the regular season, Allen was 6-2 on the road, and Watson was 5-2 at home, so it appears to be a wash.
Watson certainly had the far better numbers during the year, but Allen played just well enough to win games and keep Buffalo alive all season.
Allen’s 58% completion percentage is going to have to improve in order to keep drives moving deep in this game. Watson’s ability to keep plays alive on the ground is likely to give Houston an edge against a formidable Buffalo defense.
Prediction: Houston wins
2. Ryan Tannehill (0-0) @ Tom Brady (30-10)
This has to be the largest disparity in playoff experience in NFL history. 40 games for #12 against 0 for Tannehill. Tannehill’s 2019 could be described as miraculous. The starter flames out and the wily vet Tannehill comes in and leads a team that was headed nowhere to a playoff spot. Going on the road against a very playoff tested team is going to be a massive problem even though Tannehill is having a career year.
He’ll need that career year to extend for four more quarters. That 70%+ completion percentage and 7.7% TD rate will both have to remain high if they want to slip past New England. New England is coming off one of the worst losses of the Belichick-era so I imagine they won’t let their guard down a second week in a row.
Prediction: New England wins
3. Kirk Cousins (0-1) @ Drew Brees (8-7)
I never know what to make of New Orleans in the playoffs. They’re heavily snake bit and manage to lose games in ways that seem almost impossible. Case in point: Two years ago against Minnesota in the playoffs.
I don’t think Kirk Cousins is particularly good even though he’s two years away from joining Andy Dalton in the 30k club. Minnesota is 4-4 away from home, and New Orleans is 7-1 at home, meaning that Cousins will need a near perfect day to keep the Vikings in this.
Prediction: New Orleans wins
4. Russell Wilson (8-5) @ Carson Wentz (0-0)
Wentz finally gets his chance to show off what he can do in the playoffs. It’s going to be tough because even though it’s a home game, this Philly team has appeared overmatched in almost every game they’ve played. Philly is only 5-3 at home, and will take on a battle tested Seattle team that is 7-1 on the road. Seattle also has extra motivation to win this as a win would likely send them back to the Bay Area to take on the 49ers.
These are two QBs who are especially good at not turning the ball over. Wilson was 3rd in the league with a 1.0% INT rate with Wentz right behind in 5th with a 1.2% INT rate. Whichever QB makes the first mistake is likely to cost their team the game so keep an eye out for that first turnover.
Thank god for this game as I’m not sure I want to pick all four home teams this weekend.
Prediction: Seattle wins
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