With the news that Cam Newton is refusing to take a backup deal like Jameis Winston and Andy Dalton have, it makes one wonder what are Newton’s chances of playing in 2020?
Cam Newton was already in a bad spot given that his former team, the Carolina Panthers, switched coaches while Newton was away and that left him the odd man out. New Carolina coach Matt Rhule seemed to have no interest in bringing the former MVP back and instead seems more interested in a fresh start. To that end, the Panthers have brought in former New Orleans Saints backup Teddy Bridgewater in as the presumptive starter.
Newton could try to follow that same path as a backup and play his way back into a starting job, but Newton has outright refused to do that due to his belief that he’s earned enough accolades that he shouldn’t have to.
Should he have to? This is where it gets tricky because Newton has a been an inconsistent starter for most of his career.
2011: 6-10, 60%, 21 TDs, 17 INTs
2012: 7-9, 57.7%, 19 TDs, 12 INTs
2013: 12-4, 61.7%, 24 TDs, 13 INTs
2014: 5-8-1, 58.5%, 18 TDs, 12 INTs
2015: 15-1, 59.8%, 35 TDs, 10 INTs
2016: 6-8, 52.9%, 19 TDs, 14 INTs
2017: 11-5, 59.1%, 22 TDs, 16 INTs
2018: 6-8, 67.9%, 24 TDs, 13 INTs
2019: 0-2, 56.2%, 0 TDs, 1 INT
We can discount 2019 due to him being injured after two games in the season. Much like with Star Trek films, we can see a major difference between the odd and evens. The odd seasons appear to show a rise from the declining even seasons. The lone exception appears to be 2018 which is the only even season where Newton’s stats rise with the team’s overall record dropping. Does a quarterback who has an annual fall followed by a rise the next season, rather than consistence, deserve to get a starter’s job after a lengthy injury absence?
Newton’s career stats: 29041 passing yards, 182 TDs, 108 INTs.
Again, if you ignore the two appearances in 2019, Newton’s average stats come out to be:
3558 YDS per season
23 TDS per season
14 INTS per season
This is very close to 2018 where he threw 3395 YDS, 24 TDs, and 13 INTs.
If you take those average stats (3558 YDS, 23 TDs, 14 INTS) and plug those into 2019 this is where he’d rank:
3558 Yards This would put him at 17th in the league, just behind Kirk Cousins and ahead of Ryan Fitzpatrick.
23 TDs This would put him at 16th, just behind Philip Rivers and ahead of Jared Goff.
14 INTs This would put him in the bottom 6, and tied with Andy Dalton and Matt Ryan, and just ahead of Jimmy Garoppolo.
Newton’s average stats, which is what he put up the last time he played a full season in 2018, are very close to league average at this point. Even worse, Newton’s 2018 was a rise from the previous season, indicating that a potential fall was coming.
So do you pay Cam Newton starter money? The odds would suggest that he’s likelier to at best play close to his average stats while at worst he’s poised for a fall, especially coming off a near season-long injury.
PART TWO
Those stats aside, if Cam Newton is going to be a starter what are his actual options for next season?
The Old Team:
Carolina Panthers
No starting job for Cam here.
Franchises Who are Set at QB:
Atlanta Falcons, Baltimore Ravens, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Rams, Minnesota Vikings, New Orleans Saints, Seattle Seahawks, Tennessee Titans
Of these 11 teams they’re maybe not all as solid as they appear on the surface. The Packers have definitely put Aaron Rodgers on the clock and by drafting his replacement have let him know that publicly. Detroit might not want Matthew Stafford much longer, but they’re paying Stafford starting money for three more years. Everyone else either has a qb under long-term contract or is about to (Kansas City).
None of these teams have room for a new starting qb at this point so Newton is unlikely to get a starting job here.
Franchises with Aging QBs:
Indianapolis Colts, Pittsburgh Steelers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
These three teams all have an aging but certain starter at the helm for next season. Philip Rivers is only in Indianapolis for a year, but he’ll be the starter this year. Ben Roethlisberger and Tom Brady are both headed for the finish line soon but neither is going to voluntarily give up a starting job.
Newton signing here as a potential backup would make sense because he’s likely to see the field due to injuries to the starter. But if he wants a guaranteed starting job these three teams don’t make any sense for him.
Franchises With a Potential Franchise QB:
Arizona Cardinals, Buffalo Bills, Chicago Bears, Cleveland Browns, Denver Broncos, Jacksonville Jaguars, Las Vegas Raiders, New York Giants, New York Jets, Philadelphia Eagles, San Francisco 49ers, Washington Redskins
All of these teams are in a spot where they either have a definite starter but aren’t committed long term (Philadelphia, San Francisco), are struggling to determine if who they have is the guy long term (Buffalo, Jets, Cleveland, Chicago), or have a 2nd year qb at the helm (Giants, Jacksonville, Arizona).
None of these teams have committed long term starting money to their qb. San Francisco and Philadelphia both have starting qbs with large paychecks but Jimmy Garoppolo’s contract allows him to be cut after each season with little to no penalties for the team. Philadelphia has Carson Wentz but just spent a 2nd round pick on his potential replacement so both guys have targets on them.
Buffalo, Cleveland and the Jets have young qbs who may work out in the long run but none of the three teams is convinced just yet. Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield, and Sam Darnold are all coming into their very important third season and struggles for any of them will prevent the massive qb contract from arriving. But all will start because their teams want to find out if they’re the guy or not.
Daniel Jones and Kyler Murray, both second year starters, with the Giants and Arizona respectively, appear to be potential long term guys for their teams but the jury is still out. Dwayne Haskins is also a second year starter, for Washington, but he is several steps even behind Jones and Murray. Unlike them, Haskins did not start early in the season and only took over the job when everyone else was hurt. Washington needs to find out whether they have a starter or not so he’ll be getting the starting job.
Chicago declined Mitchell Trubisky’s 5th year option and they have the unreliable Nick Foles there as well, so either guy could be the starter in 2021.
Drew Lock barely played much for Denver last season but they liked what they saw. They liked his game enough to draft mostly WRs in the 2020 Draft in order to give him weapons to show off what he can do. There doesn’t appear to be an opening here this season.
Derek Carr has been a consistent starter for the Raiders, and that’s about all the nice things anyone can say about him. He shows up every week and the franchise seems to like him. How much longer they like him is the larger question. The Raiders have brought experienced vets in to back him up this season, and appear unlikely to want to bring another qb in to send Carr to the bench.
But for Cam none of these teams have an opening at starter next season.
Franchises With a Very Young QB:
Cincinnati Bengals, Los Angeles Chargers, Miami Dolphins
All three of these teams used a first round pick on a quarterback. Cincinnati even waived long time starter Andy Dalton to make room for Joe Burrow, clearing the spot for him before training camp even starts. Miami will start Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback this season in order to give rookie Tua Tagovailoa time to heal. The Chargers don’t seem super keen on starting rookie Justin Herbert right away but they’re also unlikely to pay a starter to come in since Herbert will be taking over the reins before the season is over.
Franchises Open:
Dallas Cowboys, New England Patriots
So what do we have left? The only two spots where it appears Cam Newton could realistically start are in Dallas and New England. Even Dallas is a stretch because that would be an aggressive move by owner Jerry Jones. The negotiations with current starter Dak Prescott appear to be bordering on Cold War-tension levels, and it’s unlikely to thaw soon. Jones just brought in Andy Dalton to back Prescott up/challenge Prescott for the starting job.
In New England, it’s no longer business as usual. Bill Belichick has his choice of Jarret Stidham or Brian Hoyer, an incredibly weak looking lineup on paper. Bringing a big free agent in is not unheard of for New England, and it’s possible that they could sign Newton to a deal that pays him less than market value but guarantees him the starting job.
Likeliest option: New England
When you go down the list of places where Cam Newton could realistically start right away (which is what he’s holding out for), the options get slim very quickly. New England is the only franchise with enough room at quarterback to give Cam what he wants.
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