1. Ryan Fitzpatrick (5-10) @ Gardner Minshew II (7-7)
This game was originally a T3 classic – A Thursday Tanking for Trevor. The Jaguars, led by Minshew, appeared to be a natural contender for the #1 slot in next year’s draft, but thanks to strong play from Minshew the Jaguars are 1-1 this season and looking like they’re going to show signs of life. On the other side are the Dolphins, led by Fitzpatrick, who were the classic tankers last year in the Tank for Tua episode. This year, they don’t appear to be tanking for Trevor, but have found themselves at 0-2 and looking like one of the worst teams in the AFC.
The 2020 tale of the tape:
Minshew: 49/65, 75.4, 512, 6 tds, 9.2%, 2 INT, 3.1%
Fitzpatrick: 51/77, 66.2%, 519, 2 tds, 2.6%, 3 INT, 3.9%
Minshew has thrown for 7 less yards on 8 less passes but thrown triple the TDs, one less INT and completed almost 10% more. Minshew, a 6th round pick last year, has established himself as a real deal starter in the NFL. One note of concern is that Minshew only threw 6 INTs all of last year in his 12 starts and already has 2 after 2 starts. That perhaps comes with the territory as Jacksonville is more comfortable with him passing and has given him the green light more often. This has paid off as last year he had a 4.5% TD rate, and this year has a 9.2% TD rate so he’s effectively throwing a TD twice as often. Minshew has still technically not even played a full season having only 14 starts so he’s still in a rookie phase, but the leap so far has been astronomical.
Fitzpatrick, who is destined to lose his job to Tua Tagovailoa, is holding on for dear life. His numbers have been decent, but a plummeting TD rate along with a rising INT rate has many concerned that he’s not long for the NFL, especially in Miami. Fitzpatrick will get a reprieve in a sense because it’s unlikely that the Dolphins will bench him for Tua in order to let Tua recover from his injuries sustained at Alabama, so Fitzpatrick will have time to right the ship. But it’s not looking good.
This game should be pass heavy and it’s likely that Minshew will come away with another victory and secure his starting job even more.
2. Dwayne Haskins (3-6) @ Baker Mayfield (13-18)
Rare in this day and age to get a matchup in the NFL with two quarters with a sub 60% completion percentage. Haskins (56.3%) and Mayfield (59.7%) will take the field in what should be a battle of 0-2 teams, but both qbs snuck a victory out already.
The 2020 tale of the tape:
Haskins: 36/64, 56.3, 401, 2 Tds, 3.1%, 0 INT, 0
Mayfield: 37/62, 59.7, 408, 3 Tds, 4.8%, 2 INT, 3.2%
In 11 career starts, Haksins has thrown for under 60% in a game seven times, with one start exactly at 60%. Another sub 60% game here likely means a big loss for Washington as they have little else to rely on going forward. In his 11 career starts, Haskins has thrown for under 200 yards eight times meaning that it’s likelier that he’ll have a sub 60%, sub 200 yard passing game than not. Washington will have to decide fairly soon if Haskins is worth the long developmental process as early signs show that not much is changing from last season.
Cleveland accidentally stumbled onto a winning formula for Mayfield by finding ways to take the ball out of his hands more. By relying more on the running game, Cleveland was able to take lots of time off the clock while moving at a stronger pace downfield. Mayfield only threw for 219 against Cincinnati but completed 69.5% of his passes on only 23 attempts.
Fun stat: Cleveland is 6-2 when they have Mayfield throw for under 30 passes. In those 8 games, 6 times or more he threw for 75% or higher. So what do we make of this? Mayfield, in limited operations, is a really good quarterback. Limiting his numbers takes pressure off him and it also limits plays where he has to scramble, and then make a mistake when trying to pull something off
This game will be an absolute mess unless Cleveland sticks with the winning formula: Keep Mayfield to sub 30 pass attempts. If they do that, Cleveland should dominate with their run game and keep Mayfield in check long enough to snuff Haskins’ weak offense.
3. Joe Burrow (0-2) @ Carson Wentz (32-26)
A true crossroads game. Burrow, the #1 pick in this year’s draft, appears to be on his way up in the NFL. After two starts he’s shown poise, and a comfort in the pocket that rookies don’t tend to have. He doesn’t make a lot of mistakes, and if it wasn’t for his WR getting flagged for offensive pass interference, Burrow would likely be 1-1 right now.
Wentz, a former #1 pick, and a man who has a Super Bowl ring, has been to the top but appears headed for the bottom. This season has been a total disaster so far for him and the Eagles and nothing appears to be going right. A surprise loss to Washington on opening day helped them get off on the wrong foot and now they’re 0-2.
The tale of the tape:
Burrow: 60/97, 61.9, 509, 3 TDs, 3.1%, 1, 1.0%
Wentz: 50/85, 58.8, 512, 2 TDs, 2.4%, 4, 4.7%
Burrow appears to be on the upswing after a 316 yd, 3 TD, 0 INT performance against Cleveland last week. Something that is worrying is Cincinnati’s over reliance on his arm. Cincinnati had Burrow throw 61 pass attempts last week. There are four starters in the NFL who have played both games and not thrown 61 pass attempts (Mayfield just ekes this out at 62). Cincinnati will absolutely have to develop a running game to take pressure off their young quarterback as they move forward or they’ll run the risk of both tipping their hand and getting him killed behind an awful offensive line.
Wentz is on pace for his worst season yet in the pros. This would be his only sub 60% completion percentage season, and his lowest TD rate since he was a rookie in 2016 (2.6%). He’s only thrown 7 INTS each season for the last three years and all with sub 2% INT rates compared to his 4.7% in 2020. It’s very possible that he’ll overcome some of these early stumbling blocks and put up numbers closer to what we’ve seen from him in the past, but the early returns in 2020 are quite disheartening.
This game is likely to go in Cincinnati’s favor as Burrow trends upwards and Wentz continues to trend down. If you’re a believer that someone is “due,’ then Wentz would be the person to bet on this week.
4. Sam Darnold (11-17) @ Philip Rivers (1-1)
The 2020 Tale of the Tape:
Darnold: 42/67, 62.7, 394, 2, 3.0%, 1, 1.5%
Rivers: 55/71, 77.5, 577, 2, 2.8, 3, 4.2%
Darnold is a mystifying quarterback as his numbers continue to rise each year he’s played in the NFL, but not fast enough for most people, and not fast enough to make his team any better
% TDs TD% INT INT%
2018 57.7 17 4.1 15 3.6
2019 61.9 19 4.3 13 2.9
2020 62.7 2 3.0 1 1.5
The 2020 numbers are a work in progress, but his comp pct is going up, and his INT rate is going down. His TD numbers are sluggish to start 2020, and that’s definitely something to keep an eye on. But all signs point to incremental development for him.
Perhaps most importantly is this stat:
2018 4-9 as starter
2019 7-6 as starter
The problem is that Jets didn’t feel like a team that was improving last season. Maybe it’s because they started Luke Falk at QB, maybe because Sam Darnold had mono, or maybe it’s because they’re a team that is irrelevant in the NFL.
2020 appears to be Darnold’s biggest test as he’s spotted himself an 0-2 start and outpacing his performance from last season could be tough. But if he can’t beat those numbers then there’s little chance that he can be a long-term starter in the NFL.
Rivers, on the other hand, is trying to outpace Father Time and starting to show real signs he’s about to lose that race. He’s lost his fastball as a quarterback and his numbers have begun to shrink:
% TDs TD% INT INT%
2018 68.3 32 6.3 12 2.4
2019 66.0 23 3.9 20 3.4
2020 77.5 2 2.8 3 4.2
Some people will point to the increased completion percentage this year as a sign that Rivers still has something left. But his TD rate is nearly down 2/3 compared to just two years ago, ,while his INT rate is close to double what it was two years ago. The Colts managed to sign Rivers to a 1-year deal which means they can bail on him before the 2021 season, which they’ll likely have to. Rivers turns 40 in December and doesn’t appear that he can play the way he used to.
But it can still work for them in 2020. Much like the Browns limiting Mayfield, the Colts limited what Rivers could do last week against Minnesota. He only threw 25 times, completing 19, and throwing for 214 yards. A very below average day for Rivers who is in the top 10 in every important passing statistic. But the Colts were able to lean on rookie RB Jonathan Taylor who helped the Colts escape with a 28-11 win. It didn’t hurt that Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins was absolutely terrible. But keeping Rivers’ numbers down on purpose in order to spread the ball around and keep things moving could be a winning formula for Indianapolis.
This game will likely come down to which QB makes the least mistakes. Rivers already has 3 INTs compared to Darnold’s 1. But Darnold has been sacked twice as much as Rivers, 4-2. A mild lean in favor of the Colts seems likely, but if Rivers’ attempts starts rising a Jets victory seems possible.
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