1. Jacksonville Jaguars
QBs on Roster:
Gardner Minshew
CJ Beathard
Jake Luton
Is there any scenario where they not only don’t take Trevor Lawrence, but rather don’t take a QB first in general? Of course it’s Trevor Lawrence! The Jaguars are in prime position to get one of the most coveted college QBs of all time. Lawrence has been attracting NFL attention since his breakout freshman season, and now it’s just a matter of hearing his name called by the Jaguars at #1.
The bigger question for Jacksonville is what do they do with the rest of the draft? New coach Urban Meyer should consider putting the lion’s share of his picks into offensive help and specifically at offensive line. The Jags’ OL was horrendous last season as well as the season before that handing out an injury to Nick Foles in game 1 of the 2019 season that saw him lose his starting job, and then another injury to Gardner Minshew which essentially doomed his chance of being a starter in Jacksonville. Yes, the defense needs upgrading but Meyer should consider going all-in on the offense and let Lawrence get his sea legs this season and let the chips fall where they may on defense.
2. New York Jets
QBs on Roster:
James Morgan
Mike White
Of course this is going to be a quarterback! Look at their current QB depth chart and tell me whether you think those are the names you want to go in to battle with next season. It’s going to be Zach Wilson, the quarterback from BYU, and that’s fine. New coach, new quarterback.
The extra draft capital from dealing Sam Darnold to Carolina doesn’t really kick in until 2022 so there’s little to be done with that, but they do have an extra first round picks this year (#23), and a high 2nd (#34) which means the Jets can actually provide Wilson with some help. Much like the Jags, the Jets need to spend their picks getting Wilson help now. The team isn’t good, and it needs every advantage to help this young QB mature in ways that Darnold never did under Adam Gase.
3. San Francisco 49ers
QBs on Roster:
Jimmy Garoppolo
Nate Sudfeld
Josh Rosen
Josh Johnson
This draft is going 3-for-3 on quarterbacks in 2021! This is the first pick where there is a small mystery over who the quarterback will be. The likely answer appears to be Mac Jones which raises a few questions.
1. Does Kyle Shanahan really think that Jones is a better long-term answer than Jimmy G?
2. Does Kyle Shanahan really think that Jones is a better short-term answer than Jimmy G?
The answer to #1 we won’t ever know, but it does seem like the answer to #2 is yes in Shanny’s mind because why else would you trade up to draft a quarterback?
Another question is what will the QB depth chart look like in September when the season starts?
Jimmy G may be gone by then and then one of the remaining three is likely to be gone as well. Will Rosen be cut again?
Regardless of who the 49ers select at QB (it’s going to be Jones), the QB enters into a pretty plum spot. Unlike the previous two teams drafting, the 49ers don’t have a lot of needs and all they really need is a quarterback who can slide in and start winning playoff games. Jimmy G went 22-8 as the 49ers starter but that wasn’t good enough because he lost the most important game he started.
4. Atlanta Falcons
QBs on Roster:
Matt Ryan
Yes, you read that right. Atlanta has one quarterback on its roster, and it’s the one that many fans want gone. So this is where the draft is really going to get interesting.
I don’t believe that Atlanta will actually make this pick because too many teams will want to move up and take whichever QB the 49ers don’t take, and that leaves Atlanta in a great spot. All they have to do is sit there, wait for the 49ers to pick, and then take the best offer that comes in.
If Atlanta does pick here, I doubt it’s a quarterback. Even though they need one (they only have one!), the likely move at #4 would be to draft help for Ryan and get through the next season because the Falcons simply can’t move Ryan to the largesse of his contract. He’s a $48 million cap hit next season and no one will take that on and the Falcons won’t want to eat that cap hit through a cut either.
Atlanta likely trades down, maybe even more than once if they can swing it, and then winds up getting help for Ryan.
Watch out for Atlanta on Days 2 and 3 because a QB will be drafted. They just can’t afford not to have a potential long-term backup in place even if it winds up being a 3rd or 4th rd qb. I imagine someone like David Mills could do well in a dome….
5. Cincinnati Bengals
QBs on Roster:
Joe Burrow
Brandon Allen
Kyle Shurmur
Our first guaranteed non-qb picking team of the Draft. The Bengals have their long-term man, Joe Burrow, and all they want now is to get him back healthy and behind a wall of steel that they’ll be attempting to put together this season, and likely starting with this pick.
The Bengals may take a Day 3 QB just to add some intrigue to training camp as Allen and Shurmur won’t light the world on fire without some competition to move them.
6. Miami Dolphins
QBs on Roster:
Tua Tagovailoa
Jacoby Brissett
Jake Ruddock
Reid Sennett
Well, there isn’t much to talk about here. The Dolphins have their QB of the future (Tua), and a nice backup in Brissett to start the season. QB-wise this team is in good shape and while they’ll likely add weapons to help Tua out, I can’t envision this team drafting a QB at all in 2021. If there had been any concerns about Tua, like there had been rumored, they would have kept Ryan Fitzpatrick.
7. Detroit Lions
QBs on Roster:
Jared Goff
Tim Boyle
David Blough
The Lions finally ended their long run with Matthew Stafford by swapping him to the Los Angeles Rams for their starter Jared Goff. We don’t get starting QB swaps very often in the NFL, so this was a real treat.
They aren’t taking a first-round quarterback though, and likely won’t take one at all unless they like what they find on Day 3.
8. Carolina Panthers
QBs on Roster:
Sam Darnold
Teddy Bridgewater
Will Grier
Tommy Stevens
PJ Walker
A bit of a log jam here at QB. Darnold is the likely starter, and that sounds crazy since Bridgewater was the starter last year, but no team is giving up picks in multiple years for a QB just to sit him on the bench. By proxy, Darnold becomes the starter.
No way they use more draft capital on a QB given what they just spent on Darnold so the Panthers should be quiet in the draft.
Their training camp should be fun though, as four of the five QBs they have started games in the NFL over the last year and none of them were particularly good.
9. Denver Broncos
QBs on Roster:
Drew Lock
Brett Rypien
Jeff Driskel
Will the Broncos continue to stick with Lock? He is progressing slowly, but not at the rate that an NFL franchise is normally comfortable with when it comes to a starter. Lock is nearing the point in his rookie contract where discussion on picking up his 5th year option begins, but as of right now it’s unclear whether the Broncos will actually hand him that large check he’s been dreaming of.
So at pick #9, with a minimum of 3 QBs off the board at this point, do they pull the trigger and take one of the ones who is left? Either Justin Fields or Trey Lance is going to be remaining and is that enough to get Denver excited? Or do they become the team to move up to #4 and swap picks with Atlanta? The possibilities are high that they are taking a QB at either #9, or #4 if they move up.
But should they not take one here, I would expect them to be a potential QB taker on Day 2 or 3.
10. Dallas Cowboys
QBs on Roster:
Dak Prescott
Garrett Gilbert
Ben DiNucci
Cooper Rush
Dak! Dak! Dak! Cowboys’ fans finally got what they wanted: An extension for Dak that was signed by both Dak and owner/GM/president/savior Jerry Jones.
So what happens now? Well in this draft very little for Dallas when it comes to quarterbacks. DiNucci was a 7th rd pick last year and it’s possible that they may take another Day 3 QB if they like someone, but that’s about it.
11. New York Giants
QBs on Roster:
Daniel Jones
Mike Glennon
Clayton Thorson
That is a white trio if I ever saw one.
Jones is an interesting case because he’s coming into his 3rd year as starter for the Giants, and only has this year and next year left on his contract meaning that they can move on from him fairly easily if they want to. It also means that this season is extremely important for Jones because if he plays well then his 5th year option will likely be picked up.
Do the Giants consider adding some potential future help at QB? Glennon is a man who keeps getting signed but isn’t very good so he’s a placeholder at best. I think the Giants will really consider some QB help on Day 2. But a Day 1 QB? Very unlikely.
12. Philadelphia Eagles
QBs on Roster:
Jalen Hurts
Joe Flacco
Well this is interesting. The Eagles drafted a Day 2 QB last year (Hurts), eventually moved their starter Carson Wentz to Indy for picks, and then added veteran help with Flacco to bolster things on the depth chart.
So do the Eagles consider adding another QB? A Day 1 QB is out of the question, but do they draft another QB as insurance on Hurts? Another Day 2 QB could be too explosive a situation for that fanbase to handle as the entire narrative of the Eagles in 2020 was about when Hurts was going to take over as starter after being drafted. The Eagles wouldn’t do that again, would they?
Probably not.
They sign a veteran QB and add some more depth.
But keep an eye out for those Day 3 QBs.
13. Los Angeles Chargers
QBs on Roster:
Justin Herbert
Chase Daniel
Easton Stick
Another team with a successful first-round QB from last year. The QB situation seems very strong here, and there doesn’t appear any chance of a QB being drafted unless they’re not happy with Stick and want some competition for him in training camp.
14. Minnesota Vikings
QBs on Roster:
Kirk Cousins
Nate Stanley
Jake Browning
This doesn’t seem like a team that’s interested in investing a high draft pick in a quarterback. Cousins has his faults, but that’s on Minnesota coaching to overcome, not the GM in the draft. The other QBs behind Cousins are young but are likely better than what the Day 3 QBs would net Minnesota so this appears to be a QB-free draft for them.
15. New England Patriots
QBs on Roster:
Cam Newton
Jarret Stidham
Jake Dolegala
The Patriots are a real wild card team in this draft. They brought Newton back for a second year, but is anyone really sold on Cam being the guy long term in New England? Stidham, a previous high draft pick that was once projected to be New England’s long term guy, hasn’t shown much either. They both played poorly for New England last year, yet they were both retained. Bill Belichick rarely moves up in a draft, but this is a draft with five potential first round quarterbacks, so he may not have a choice. They’re a real contender to move up to #4 or #5 and make a move if there’s someone there they’re interested in.
16. Arizona Cardinals
QBs on Roster:
Kyler Murray
Colt McCoy
Chris Streveler
Cole McDonald
Arizona has its long term starter in Murray, and they’re unlikely to spend top draft capital on another QB. Their backup situation isn’t very good, but they’re likelier to sign a veteran backup rather than spend Day 3 capital on a young backup who wouldn’t be much better than Colt McCoy.
17. Las Vegas Raiders
QBs on Roster:
Derek Carr
Marcus Mariota
Nathan Peterman
Kyle Sloter
This is a team that seems very set on their QB structure heading into 2021 as there were no changes made at all from 2020’s roster. Carr is a lock to start and Mariota is a lock as a backup on the Ninth Island. A Day 3 QB isn’t out of the question if they’re interested in replacing Peterman on the cheap, but definitely not guaranteed.
19. Washington Football Team
QBs on Roster:
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Taylor Heinicke
Kyle Allen
Steven Montez
This is a team in a real pickle as they need to draft a young quarterback and begin the development process, but they somehow won their division last year and find themselves drafting out of the 19th spot.
Their last 1st round pick (Dwayne Haskins in 2019) was a bust who is already off the team and now a possible backup in Pittsburgh (see below).
Their winningest quarterback over the last few years was Alex Smith, who Ron Rivera ran out of town due to health concerns over his leg which is somewhat understandable, but also strange that an NFL coach would push a winning QB away from the franchise.
So now the WFT has an aging one-year rental in Ryan Fitzpatrick, and has no legit future QBs in place on the roster which means that this is a team that will definitely be considering moving up. But moving up from #19 is going to be a problem as it’ll be an expensive leap. Which means the likelier option is their QB is going to be a 2nd round QB on Day 2 and while they’ll have the pick of the litter of the Day 2 QBs, they’ll have to deal with an angry press and fanbase over this decision.
20. Chicago Bears
QBs on Roster:
Andy Dalton
Nick Foles
When you see that QB depth chart you know there’s another QB coming. The Bears are quite similar to the WFT in that they need a young quarterback and need him now, but they made the playoffs and are picking from deep in the draft. A draft where teams seem eager to move up, but moving up from #20 will cost even more than Washington’s potential move up from #19.
This is a team that needs a QB to settle in behind these two to lead the team in 2022 and beyond so a Day 2 QB is going to be very likely if the Bears can’t find a way into the top 10.
21. Indianapolis Colts
QBs on Roster:
Carson Wentz
Jacob Eason
Jalen Morton
The Colts spend their draft capital this year and next on getting Carson Wentz from Philadelphia. This gives Wentz a chance to reunite with his former OC and current Colts HC Frank Reich, the last coach who truly got Wentz to develop. That move made all the sense in the world, but it comes at a cost (a third-round pick this year and a conditional second-round pick next year). If Wentz reverts to being a franchise qb, then the picks won’t matter as that’s a good cost.
They even have a nice backup in Eason, acquired in last year’s draft, so there’s little reason to imagine them drafting another QB unless it’s to flesh out the roster, but they’re likelier a team that will bring in some UDFA QBs to camp rather than add more in the draft.
22. Tennessee Titans
QBs on Roster:
Ryan Tannehill
Logan Woodside
DeShone Kizer
As we get deeper into this, we’re coming across teams that don’t need a lot of help at the QB area, but do need help at other areas in order to advance to the Super Bowl. The Titans are one of these teams. They have a legit starter at the moment, and they’re far likelier to spend draft capital on addressing needs, so will they draft a QB? Looking at their potential depth chart, it’s hard to imagine Tennessee avoiding spending a Day 3 pick on a QB just because the current backups are not ultra-reliable and having some insurance there wouldn’t hurt. But I don’t imagine they’ll spend high draft capital so a Day 3 deal is probably the best-case scenario.
24. Pittsburgh Steelers
QBs on Roster:
Ben Roethlisberger
Mason Rudolph
Dwayne Haskins
Joshua Dobbs
Behold the mighty aging Steelers in all their glory! Cap troubles and aging players leave the Steelers in a strange place where they may be drafting much higher next year.
But in terms of QBs, the Steelers seem relatively solid. Roethlisberger is likely playing his final season for the team, and Rudolph and Haskins are potential backups to weather any storms that arise during the season. The biggest question for Pittsburgh is whether Rudolph is going to be the man going forward? He did start 8 games in 2019 after Roethlisberger got hurt, but didn’t appear to show enough to make Pittsburgh give him the starting job then and there. Would they give him the starting job now? The answers are unclear, so a potential Day 2 or 3 QB to add depth is not out of the question even though a Day 2 QB would likely bring a lot of drama to the team (see Philadelphia) and that’s a move the team often avoids.
26. Cleveland Browns
QBs on Roster:
Baker Mayfield
Case Keenum
Kyle Lauletta
The Browns are finally QB-drama free after decades! Mayfield has shown himself to be worthy of being an NFL starter, even though there are many questions about his potential ceiling. But those are for another time and the Browns will not be drafting a future savior of the franchise in 2021. They may pick up a QB on Day 3 if there’s one that interests them just because the backups aren’t particularly inspiring.
27. Baltimore Ravens
QBs on Roster:
Lamar Jackson
Trace McSorley
Tyler Huntley
The Ravens are drafting deep in the first round, and not in need of a quarterback at all. Lamar Jackson is definitely the guy moving forward, so the only question here is what Baltimore thinks of their backups?
Baltimore lost their more longtime backup in Robert Griffith III, but played both McSorley and Huntley during garbage time games and seemed to be happy with the results. It’s not out of the question to pick up a cheap QB late in the draft as insurance, but Baltimore’s draft will likely be QB-free.
28. New Orleans Saints
QBs on Roster:
Jameis Winston
Taysom Hill
Trevor Siemian
The Saints are now entering the first year of the Post-Brees Era in New Orleans. The power vacuum at quarterback that has resulted is likely to create a several year gap where the team is unable to find a long term answer at that position. Look how long it’s taken Buffalo and Miami to find potential franchise quarterbacks.
But here in 2021, the Saints appear to be settled at the position. Winston is the likely starter with Hill doing whatever the hell it is that he does off the bench. Siemian is a decent option for a third-string quarterback.
The odds of a quarterback being drafted by New Orleans this year seems awful low.
29. Green Bay Packers
QBs on Roster:
Aaron Rodgers
Jordan Love
The Packers are a team at a real crossroads in their history. Aaron Rodgers, the #2 quarterback in all meaningful statistics for the Packers, has been at the helm for over a decade and is coming off another amazing season. Yet the Packers drafted a QB in the first round of last year, taking the unseasoned Jordan Love from Utah State.
Taking a first round quarterback now is dicey because three years into the QB’s run, the team has to make a major decision about whether to pick up the player’s fifth-year option. Love sat on the bench for his first year, and is likely to sit on the bench for most of this year which means that they either have to start Love in 2022 (his third year) or risk completely wasting last year’s first round pick.
This team already has an absurd amount of issues at quarterback so it’s hard to imagine they risk adding another one with a high pick so this team is done at the position unless a player pops up on Day 3.
30. Buffalo Bills
QBs on Roster:
Josh Allen
Mitchell Trubisky
Jake Fromm
Davis Webb
That is a strong depth chart. Allen has shown himself to be a solid starter, and Trubisky is a decent backup option should anything happen health-wise to Allen. Fromm was a late round pick last year and is there as an emergency option.
This team is not taking a QB.
31. Kansas City Chiefs
QBs on Roster:
Patrick Mahomes
Chad Henne
Jordan Ta’amu
Anthony Gordon
Much like Buffalo, Kansas City looks pretty solid at QB. Mahomes is on another level as a starter and Henne has shown that he can bring veteran presence as a backup. Ta’amu is a wild card as he showed some real skill during the shortened XFL season in 2020.
They’re not taking a QB.
32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
QBs on Roster:
Tom Brady
Here’s a fun situation. Tampa Bay has Tom Brady, the winningest QB in the history of the league, but is also 43 years old. Oh they also have no on else at this position.
I’m not sure what Tampa Bay is waiting for as free agency swallowed up most of the decent veteran options, but they’ve made their choice and this is where they’re at.
Given this situation it’s hard to imagine Tampa Bay doesn’t take a flier on someone during Day 2 or 3 because what are their other options? Blaine Gabbert, their backup last year, is available, but the fact they didn’t re-sign him makes me think they don’t want him again. So look for a late round QB pick by Tampa.
56. Seattle Seahawks
QBs on Roster:
Russell Wilson
Alex McGough
Danny Eitling
Russell Wilson is already a Hall of Fame contender and is relatively young 32, so it’s hard to imagine them wanting to swap him out anytime soon. But look at the rest of that depth chart and it becomes likely to see Seattle looking at potential options on Day 3 to help add some depth and give Russell Wilson a decent backup.
It’ll have to be a Day 3 pick because they don’t even pick in the first round, and they’ll be looking to address other areas on Day 2.
57. Los Angeles Rams
QBs on Roster:
Matthew Stafford
John Wolford
Bryce Perkins
Devlin Hodges
The Rams made their QB move early in the offseason by trading starter Jared Goff to Detroit for their starter Matthew Stafford. The trade, which resulted in shipping multiple picks to Detroit, essentially ended the Rams’ search for QB help. It’s hard to imagine them investing more picks into the QB position for 2021, so while they might actually need another QB (look at that depth chart), it’s unlikely that that happens.
67. Houston Texans
QBs on Roster:
DeShaun Watson
Tyrod Taylor
Ryan Finley
Oh boy. Of course this is the last team to have their first pick in the Draft, and for us to review. And it’s a doozy, isn’t it?
Well, where do we start? Watson tried desperately to get traded during the early stages of the offseason, but Houston’s asking price was far too high and they wound up not making a deal with anyone.
Then, Watson’s stock suddenly dropped. I mean, we’re talking a monumental drop. Why? Well, it turns out Watson isn’t a great dude, and allegedly did a lot of bad things a lot of times.
So now Houston, which was already bad, is facing a long season where Watson might play on this bad team, or, Watson will not play and this team will be drafting first next year while Watson goes to play in the new XFL.
Either way, this team has a lot of decisions to make.
Will they draft a QB? Probably the least of their worries. Taylor is a good backup, and Finley even has starting experience so they may be ok with just those two.
They might draft a QB but they also might not want to attract more attention to their ugliest area.
QB Watch 