*The number next to each team is their first drafting slot in the 2020 NFL Draft.
1. Cincinnati
Draft: Joe Burrow, 1.01
Thomas Wolfe fans rejoice! We’re about to find if it’s true that You Can’t Go Home Again. Burrow, an Ohio native, tried to find success in the Buckeye State but was rebuffed at Ohio State before achieving his dreams down in the Bayou. Now the Prodigal Son has returned and made more than a few local heads spin when he refused to say he’d love to play for the Bengals (while also not saying he didn’t want to play there either), and raised ire by saying that local restaurant chain Skyline Chili sucks. But winning cures all and if Burrow can be the first Bengal QB in 30 years to win a playoff game, no southern Ohioans will ever talk ill of him again.
Next Season Starter: Joe Burrow
Yes, Andy Dalton is still there. Yes, Cincinnati is going to pay him a lot to sit on the bench. Dalton’s time has been a mixed bag: No Bengal QB has been to as many playoff games since Boomer Esiason as Andy Dalton (4), but Dalton also didn’t win a single one of those. And he hasn’t been to one since 2014.
Burrow will have his chance to shine as the #1 pick. In the old days the logic would have been to let him sit, but that logic has passed and now Burrow will be thrown to the wolves in Year 1. Experts already believe he’s game one ready and while we won’t know if that’s true or not for months, Burrow did look spectacular at LSU. The bar will be low for him but it’s unlikely that he’ll sit, especially at the start. Dalton will likely have a chance to win the starting job, but head coach Zak Taylor knows that his clock is already running down after a disastrous rookie campaign and he needs to get results moving in a positive direction quickly.
The question that remains is which Joe Burrow is arriving? Burrow has had one great year (maybe the best year a college QB has ever had), but is that a permanent Burrow or was that a one year aberrance under a great new system? Bengals fans and Bengals coaches will hope it’s the former.
EDIT: No, Andy Dalton is not there. He was there when the initial version of this was written. Congrats to the Bengals for making a decision that makes QB Watch look slightly accurate!
5 Seasons From Now Starter: Joe Burrow
Even if Burrow isn’t the great white hope that Cincinnati is looking for, Bengals ownership has shown great loyalty to coaches and players willing to play there. Mostly because they’re cheap and too lazy to bother finding someone else but Burrow should be the long term starter.
2. Washington
No QBs taken by them after spending a first round pick last year on Dwayne Haskins. QB play was horrendous for Washington last year, but pretty much every position was horrendous for Washington last year.
Last year’s Washington team was a mess with head coach Jay Gruden getting fired after an 0-5 start. QBs Case Keenum and Colt McCoy went a combined 1-8 with 12 TDs and 10 INTs. Nothing worked right for Washington who was hoping to let Keenum play out the season and let Haskins sit and learn. That didn’t work out (see below), for a number of reasons, including mid-season coaching changes.
First year coach Ron Rivera will try to turn the team around, a difficult task for anyone, but Rivera seems a likelier bet than Jay Gruden. Rivera is a defensive first coach which may be good for Haskins who will get time to settle in without having a coach peering over his shoulder the whole time.
Next Season Starter: Dwayne Haskins
Haskins was not considered game one ready like Burrow is this year and Haskins lived up to expectations with poor play out the gate. His first outing he went 9/17 for 108 yards and 3 interceptions. His second outing, coming off the bench, he went 3/5 for 33 yards and an interception. But Haskins began to show glimmers of success near the end of the season. In his final three games, all losses, he went 47/70 for 564 yards, 5 TDs and 1 interception.
He’ll also get the job because Washington has little other options. The backups are Kyle Allen, Carolina’s starter from last year who got the job because Cam Newton died; and Alex Smith, a one-legged man who is still getting paid a lot of money from Daniel Snyder. Washington did pick up Steven Montez from Colorado as an UDFA over the weekend, but making the roster will be extremely difficult.
5 Seasons From Now Starter: None of the Above
Since 2000, only four QBs have been the official starter for three straight seasons (Mark Brunell 2004-2006, Jason Campbell 2007-2009, RG3 2012-2014, Kirk Cousins 2015-2017), but not one QB has been the starter for four straight seasons. Mark Rypien, 1989-1993, was the last Washington QB to be the starter for that long. So the odds aren’t good for Haskins.
Even if Haskins works out and develops a contract controversy will break out near the end because that’s how these things go in Washington.
3. Detroit
It was a rough season for Detroit. Matt Stafford’s back exploded and left him unable to play for the second half the season with the team at 3-4-1. The team would not win again. Backups Jeff Driskel went 0-3 and David Blough went 0-5. Amazingly, Blough was brought back for another campaign with Detroit.
Next Season Starter: Matthew Stafford
Stafford will be the guy until the wheels fall off which may be coming sooner rather than later. He’s only 32, but the back injury was nasty and left him unable to come back for the last eight weeks of the season. Stafford was on pace for his best season, but the thing with Stafford is that for as many yards and TDs he’s thrown he just doesn’t win games. 69 wins in a149 starts doesn’t appear to be that impressive. If he played in any other era of the NFL he would have been gone years ago.
5 Seasons From Now Starter: Matthew Stafford
He’ll be 37 which is going to be a high number for a guy who has had as many injuries as he’s had. While he’s had a long streak of good luck, Stafford’s time could be coming due. We at QB Watch will never root against a QB but we also won’t bet on some of them. Aaron Rodgers is 36 and his replacement (see below) is in place so at some point in the next few seasons Detroit will have to make a similar decision. Fortunately for Stafford, Detroit isn’t as good at making long term, or short term, decisions as Green Bay.
4. NY Giants
The Eli Manning era is over, so let the Daniel Jones era begin! There’s no doubt who the team leader is in on the New York Giants. While the rookie campaign was often difficult to watch, the results were not nearly as bad as one would think when they see Jones’ 3-9 record as a starter.
Next Season Starter: Daniel Jones
Not much debate here. It’s Jones’ team now, for better or worse. Colt McCoy was picked up as a backup, which was a bold move given his disastrous run in Washington last year. But hopes are high that Jones will not need any bench time. Beyond McCoy, the Giants only have Alex Tanney and UDFA/likely summer roster cut Case Cookus from Northern Arizona.
The expectations will eventually be high given he’s replacing a two-time Super Bowl winner, but Jones has shown Giants fans that there are reasons to be positive. Jones was 3-9, but led rookie QBs with 24 TD passes, averaging two a game. The 12 interceptions are high, but if he can work on getting those down he appears to be a solid starter for the time being. His 5.2% TD rate was 11th in the league. Of his four 300 yard passing games, three of them were in the final five games indicating a growing confidence both from the coaching perspective (let Jones throw more) but also with Jones himself.
It’s unclear how much of a leap forward Jones will between Year 1 and 2, but he could have his hands tied by management. Giants management is near the bottom when it comes to making good decisions, so Jones could find himself in a bad situation if they can’t find a way to keep giving him the protection and weapons he needs as he develops.
5 Seasons From Now Starter: Daniel Jones
Barring a major injury this is Jones’ team. The Giants are building around him and planning for hopeful Super Bowls down the line.
5. Miami
Draft: Tua Tagovailoa, 1.05; Malcolm Perry, 7.246
The Dolphins were the only top five team, besides Cincinnati, to pick up a quarterback in the 2020 Draft. Whether they were really #TankingForTua or not, they found a way to get the man they wanted. Now he’s here and it’ll be interesting to see what they do with him. Given that there likely won’t be a season, Tua will have a lot of time off to get healthy.
Perry is only listed here because he played QB at Navy. ESPN listed him as a WR when he was drafted, while ESPN.com listed him as a RB. It’s unlikely Perry will ever start a game at QB for anyone in the NFL, or even be an every down player, but it’s worth mentioning because he has the potential to be Miami’s version of Taysom Hill. Perry can run, pass and catch, in that order. His decision making skills are high having run the triple-option at Navy, and he has a great sense of where potential holes are. A smart offensive coach could do a lot with Perry as a Swiss Navy Knife.
Next Season Starter: Ryan Fitzpatrick
FitzMagic is likely to be making one last run in Miami next season. Josh Rosen and trivia answer Jake Rudock are there, but it’s unlikely that all three of these guys will still be here when training camp ends.
Between Tua’s health and the fact that they have to retool the offense for a left handed QB, it will take time before they fully hand the keys over to Tua. Fitz had a decent year in 2019 but he seems to play better when there is less pressure on him.
Fitz started the first two games with Josh Rosen looking over his shoulder and played like this: 25/50, 278, 1 TD, 4 INTs in 2 losses.
Rosen flamed out after going 0-3 as a starter and Fitz regained control with no chance of Rosen returning. Fitz finished the season going 5-6, completing 63% of his passes, threw for 3255 yards, 19 TDs and 9 INTs in the last 11 games.
Post-Rosen Fitz played far, far better. But if he can’t play well with QBs looking over his shoulder he could find himself on the bench before the season is over.
5 Seasons From Now Starter: Tua Tagovailoa
If everything goes well, Tua should be the guy for Miami down the road. Tua’s health will raise questions until he can prove that he can stay healthy for the long term. Stafford had the same problem in Detroit during his first few years, but mostly quieted those critics for the better part of a decade.
6. LA Chargers
Draft: Justin Herbert, 1.06
A new city, new stadium, new look and new quarterback. The 2020 Chargers will look very different. For the first time since 2005, the Chargers will have a different starting QB under center.
Next Season Starter: Justin Herbert
The Chargers can keep saying it’s Tyrod Taylor, but there’s no reason not to start Herbert. He might not be completely game ready, but he’s clearly the QB of the future (Taylor is only under contract for this season) so they might as well kick the tires and see what they have here.
Easton Stick from North Dakota State is their only other QB so this could be a team that takes a look at someone like Cam Newton or Blake Bortles as a potential backup.
5 Seasons From Now Starter: Justin Herbert
I’m torn on this because I’m not totally convinced that Herbert is going to be a major player in the NFL but the Chargers have gone all in on him so they have to ride this as far as they can. Herbert could very well be extremely good but he’ll need a lot of protection and weapons around him. The challenge will be taking the Chargers offense that they built around Rivers and retooling it to fit Herbert’s style which will take some time. Anthony Lynn has staked his head coaching job on Herbert working out so he’ll need to fix that asap.
7. Carolina
Much like the Chargers, Carolina will have a real new look in 2020. New QB (Teddy Bridgewater), new coach (Matt Rhule), new system. Rhule is an interesting cat because he’s a major defensive guy, so maybe not that different from previous head coach Ron Rivera, but Rhule is going all in on defense this year (taking all defensive players in the draft). The lack of attention to the offense could prove problematic down the line as Teddy Bridgewater succeeded in New Orleans as a backup because he had a lot of weapons around him to work with. How will that work in Carolina?
Next Season Starter: Teddy Bridgewater
That run in New Orleans worked out really well as Teddy was able to play his way into an NFL starting job. Take note Jameis, Cam, Blake, and others.
Teddy parlayed that success into a 3 year/$63 million contract. Now he’s got the money and the starting job. Carolina has little options beyond Teddy. Will Grier is the main backup and god knows why. Grier was 0-2, with 53% completions, 0 TDs and 4 INTs in his two starts. Potential XFL MVP PJ Walker is also on the roster. Walker was 5-0 with Houston, completing 65% of his passes, throwing 15 TDs to 4 INTs. Walker should be the main backup for Teddy.
Teddy will benefit from having a coach who isn’t on top of him all the time, but if Rhule is too hands off with the offense – including not drafting help for Teddy – this offense could sink real fast. Christian McCaffrey is still there and got a huge extension but can Teddy win with just a running back?
5 Seasons From Now Starter: Some Senior HS Quarterback
Teddy’s contract is for three years, and he’s never gotten a second long term contract from a team. For now the money would be on Teddy not getting a second contract here. This means that you’ll get three years from Teddy and a first round QB is coming in 2023/24. Rhule has not tied himself to anything offensively so far so he can jettison Teddy and bring in “his” quarterback down the road.
8. Arizona
The only thing worth talking about here is Kliff Kingsbury’s pad. I knew money went far in Arizona, but hot damn that house is wild.
Next Season Starter: Kyler Murray
The duo of Murray and Klingsbury had low expectations coming into the 2019 NFL season and they both surprised a lot of people. Murray had a solid rookie season finishing 3rd in TD passes among rookies (trailing only Daniel Jones and Gardner Minshew), but Murray’s rushing TDs helps push him up to a tie with Jones. Murray made a lot of rookie mistakes including holding the ball too long and attempting rushes when he shouldn’t have. The growing pains are a part of the rookie QB experience and between that and Klingsbury gaining experience as an NFL head coach, there’s some hope that Arizona could move up a little in 2020.
Finding a way to raise Murray’s TD rate from the very low 3.7% (27th among starters) while lowering interceptions should be among Arizona’s top priorities.
5 Seasons From Now Starter: Kyler Murray
It’s possible he won’t advance much from what we saw in 2019, but the odds are likely that Murray will still be here in 5 years. That means Murray will get a massive new contract down the road and be Arizona’s franchise quarterback for a long time to come.
9. Jacksonville
Draft: Jake Luton, 6.189
Hell yeah! Go Beavs!
But seriously, Luton won’t play.
Next Season Starter: Gardner Minshew
How good is Minshew? So good that he ran Nick Foles out of town. Foles signed a four year/$88 million contract and 6th round pick Minshew took the starting job and played well enough that Jacksonville is going all in on him.
Minshew’s magical run at Washington State took on folkloric proportions on the Palouse, but now as an NFL player Minshew is taking it to the next level. The Jags went 5-11 in 2018, and Minshew alone went 6-6 in 12 starts. His 21 TDs to 6 interceptions is a solid ratio for a rookie, and finished 2nd in rookie TD passing.
Jacksonville’s defensive heavy draft seems to indicate that they believe Minshew and company are in good shape and don’t need a lot of add-ons. Minshew will have to stay healthy because his current backup is Joshua Dobbs, who was traded from Pittsburgh last season after he lost the job there to Mason Rudolph.
5 Seasons From Now Starter: A current college freshman
Minshew may develop into a good starter, and QB Watch has the belief he will, but Jacksonville history is not great with QBs. Mark Brunell is the only five season starter in Jags history (1998-2003). Minshew would have to overcome two decades of QB play to rise to that level. It’s certainly possible but feels like a bad bet. The likeliest outcome is Minshew plays well and leaves as a FA in a few seasons.
10. Cleveland
It feels like a minor victory when the Browns don’t draft a QB. They have enough faith with their current situation to give it another season before diving back into that end of the pool.
The Browns are also starting over…again. Freddie Kitchens bit the dust and first year head coach Kevin Stefanski, former Vikings OC, will take over. Stefanski is part of the new wave of sub-40 year old head coaches and the jury is way out on whether he’ll be closer to Sean McVay (reached the Super Bowl) or Zak Taylor in Cincinnati (won 2 games).
Next Season Starter: Baker Mayfield
What do the Browns have in Baker Mayfield? As a rookie, Mayfield went 6-7 and appeared to give the Browns a spark of life. But last season he went 6-10, his completion percentage dropped from 63.7 to 59.4, his TDs dropped from 27 to 22, and his interceptions rose 14 to 21. Is this the real Baker? Or was Freddie Kitchens such a train wreck that everything plummeted? QB Watch is unsure, but leaning towards Kitchens being the problem. We’ll know far more in December (ha-ha there won’t be a season), but for now the hope is that Baker will turn it around with a smarter, more offensive minded coach in place. Browns management appears to think so anyway.
5 Seasons From Now Starter: Not Baker Mayfield
This is where it gets tricky. Baker Mayfield has 29 starts as a Cleveland Brown. This puts him 11th in team history. 46 QBs in Cleveland Browns history have started between 1 and 28 games. So Baker Mayfield has already overcome a lot of bad franchise history to get where he’s at.
For Baker to still be the starter after five years seems like a really bad bet. Maybe Stefanski and Mayfield team into a wonderful Coach-QB duo like we’ve seen elsewhere (Sean Payton/Drew Brees), but it seems likelier that neither of them are here in 2025.
11. NY Jets
It can’t get much worse for the Jets after last year’s total disaster. Starting QB/Part-time Muppet Sam Darnold got mono, Trevor Siemian came in, threw six passes and died, and then Luke Falk came in to salvage what was left and was decimated by having to make his first career start on the road against the New England Patriots. Siemian and Falk were so bad that the Jets cut both of them and no one has picked either man up.
Draft: James Morgan, 4.125
Morgan is likely here to challenge for the backup spot. The Jets cut Siemian and Falk and currently have David Fales and Mike White as backups. Fales, who will turn 30 in October, has been in the league since 2014 and has only played in five games and started zero, so he doesn’t appear to be a great option as the primary backup. Mike White, a second year QB from Western Kentucky, was signed by the Dallas Cowboys last year and ultimately cut before the season started. Even though he’s a rookie, Morgan has as good a chance as any of these guys to be the backup heading into the next season.
Next Season Starter: Sam Darnold
As for Darnold, he did help the team rebound when he came back going 7-6 as a starter and posting better numbers than his rookie season. A jump from 57.7 to 61.9 completion percentage, 17 TDs to 19, and lowered interceptions from 15 to 13. The improvements were small but they show signs of Darnold getting more comfortable.
The Jets seem fairly happy with what they have so far and it’s likely that he’ll be the starter all season unless injuries get him.
This does seem like a team that they may reach out and try to sign one of the veteran free agents like a Blake Bortles as a backup.
5 Seasons From Now Starter: Sam Darnold
Between the Jets’ interest in Darnold, and their lack of interest in investing money in a decent backup, Darnold looks like he’ll be here for a while.
12. Las Vegas
The first season for the Raiders in Las Vegas (whenever this season is played!)! The Raiders went from 4-12 to 7-9 and appear to be trending in the right direction. Not getting Tom Brady to play quarterback might hurt them a bit, but Jon Gruden seems to be grappling with what his team is and how to best utilize them.
Next Season Starter: Derek Carr….probably
Of all the 32 teams, Las Vegas appears to be the most likely team to dump its perennial starter for someone else prior to the season. Carr will be going into his 7th season as starter and with a record of 39-55 has not impressed many people. He was 2nd in completion percentage and top 10 in yards, but 19th in TDs/22nd in TD Rate, so he’s moving the ball but not finishing drives which is going to be a problem obviously. Vegas is likely to stick with Carr for this season because the other options seem worse right now, but don’t be shocked if they decide to bring in an extra veteran.
Who are those bad options? In alphabetical order: DeShone Kizer, Marcus Mariota, and Nathan Peterman.
In reverse order of likely staying with the team/ever playing:
3. Nathan Peterman (career record: 1-3)
Peterman, who hasn’t played since 2018 due to injuries, has not made much of a splash in the NFL. His 3 TDs to 12 Interceptions is a horrendous ratio and the fact that the Raiders not only signed him last year, but re-signed him is incredible
2. DeShone Kizer (career record: 0-15)
Yes, that career record is accurate. And yes he has a better chance of making the team. Kizer’s 0-15 record came from the infamous 2017 Cleveland Browns season where he was thrown to the wolves. Is he good or bad? We don’t really know because he hasn’t started a game since that season. He backed up Aaron Rodgers in 2018 and like Peterman was signed by the Raiders in 2019 but never saw the field. Kizer’s career 11 TDs to 24 Interceptions is a slightly better ratio than Peterman’s, and maybe with Kizer all the changes of scenery have helped him overcome that one year with Cleveland.
1. Marcus Mariota (career record: 29-32)
Mariota is at least better than his fellow backups, and like Kizer will likely benefit from a change of scenery. Things just didn’t work out in Tennessee and that crushing blow of losing your starting job to a quarterback who had been run out of Miami was the final blow. Now, Mariota can start fresh with a new coach, city, offense and have a chance to show what he can do. Gruden is likelier to let Mariota be more of the UO Mariota than Tennessee’s coaches were, so if he does play, Mariota could have a decent showing.
5 Seasons From Now Starter: None of the Above
Carr’s contract carries him through 2022 which means that for him to still be the starter the Raiders will have to give him a massive new contract which based on current performances seems unlikely. As much as Gruden seems to like Carr, Carr has only had one winning season out of six tries. Seems far likelier that the Raiders will look to invest in either a first-round pick in the near future or a solid free agent veteran.
13. Tampa Bay
TB in TB! The Bucs pay Brady big bucks! All the new catchphrases and trademarks are here!
Next Season Starter: Tom Brady
Like there’s any doubt that Brady is going to be the starter.
But…Brady will be 43 when the season starts (or 44 when this season is played next year), and at 43 you’re going to want good backup options in case something should happen. This is where Tampa’s situation gets both dicey and hilarious.
The backups are Blaine Gabbert of backup fame; Ryan Griffin, a seven year veteran who has played in two games and started none; and 2020 UDFA Reid Sinnett. If all goes well, Tampa Bay could be a deep playoff team, or if something happens to Brady this team could be 2-14.
5 Seasons From Now Starter: Well it ain’t gonna be Tom Brady
The risk/reward for Tampa is obvious. Brady gives them a chance to win a Super Bowl now (I said now dammit!), but once he’s gone this team drops off hard. If Brady does stay a few years, Tampa will likely be drafting deep in round 1 where Brady won’t want future QBs taken anyway so this is a team that could have a crash once he’s gone. In that case, Tampa’s QB will whoever they can find at that point whether it’s a rookie QB, free agent, etc.
14. San Francisco
Next Season Starter: Jimmy Garoppolo
He’s still going to be the guy until something drastic changes. Jimmy G is the obvious starter after last year, and honestly doesn’t face much in competition so he should be fine.
The 49ers are sticking with CJ Beathard and Nick Mullens as their backups so good for them for staying consistent. One would think this is the year you trade one of them, but that remains to be seen. GM John Lynch is a wheeler and a dealer so he might decide to move one, but the 49ers do have an irrational love for both of these guys.
5 Seasons From Now Starter: Someone Not Listed Here
Hmm. Jimmy G is the guy for now, but the 49ers built him a contract that gives the team lots of options to get rid of him at almost any point without major cap damage. That’s not the kind of contract you give a quarterback who you think is a guy who will be there for a decade plus. The fact that the 49ers admitted to kicking the tires on Tom Brady makes you wonder what they really think of Jimmy G as the guy who’ll lead this franchise, so I have to say they’ll look somewhere else for their qb come 2025.
15. Denver
From one enchanted franchise of quarterbacks to another. Coming into this season, Denver is actually not far off from where people thought the qb situation would be. Joe Flacco was essentially a one-year stopgap measure to help build up Drew Lock, QB of the future. The only problem is that both Flacco and Lock got hurt during the 2019 season so Lock got less reps than Denver probably hoped for.
But Lock played well in his 5 starts, going 4-1 and boosting the team to 7-9 nearly getting them to a break even season. The sample size was small, but Lock looked better than fellow zero game starter Brandon Allen who despite winning a game for Denver played poorly throughout his three starts and was quietly let go after the season.
Next Season Starter: Drew Lock
Based off Lock’s play you have to think he’s at least the short term answer. GM John Elway didn’t add any major qbs for backup keeping Brett Rypien, who didn’t play last year, and adding Jeff Driskel (see the #3 section on Detroit). Lock should have no trouble beating these guys out during training camp so now the question is how quickly can they develop Lock? He only got to play five games because of a thumb injury and that curtailed a lot of his progress.
5 Seasons From Now Starter: Drew Lock
This spot has been troublesome for John Elway in a post-Peyton Manning world. Elway has drafted, signed, and ultimately cut a lot of quarterbacks in hopes of finding a guy to anchor this spot. Lock might be another Brock Osweiler/Paxton Lynch bust, but for now Denver has gone all in to a point it’s hard to imagine them swapping him out anytime soon.
16. Atlanta
Oh, those heady days not that along ago where the Falcons were up 28-3 and it seemed like the world was at Matt Ryan’s feet. Since then it’s been a big stink down in Atlanta and perhaps it’s time for a change.
Next Season Starter: Matt Ryan
Oh it’s definitely Ryan. The farther we move down the list, the easier this question gets. But in Atlanta’s case, it’s even easier because there’s not much else on this roster. Perennial backup Matt Schaub is still here, at age 38 and soon to be 39, to back up Ryan. Ryan’s health has been fairly good for most of his career although he did miss one game last season. As long as the OL can keep Ryan up, Schaub will be watching the game like most fans. Also on this team is Danny Etling and Kurt Benkert, one of whom won’t be there when the season starts.
5 Seasons From Now Starter: Not Matt Ryan
Ryan is going to be 35 next month (Happy Birthday Matt!), and the idea of him still starting at 40 seems plausible but unlikely. Yes, Tom Brady and Drew Brees are both playing into their 40s but after seeing how the 2004 draft class was dealt a crippling blow last season, it makes one wonder how long quarterbacks will continue to play out. Ryan’s contract also runs out after 2023, and an extension could cost Atlanta a lot of cash. By then don’t be surprised if they’ve drafted a qb and begun succession plans.
The one reason I could see Ryan wanting to stick it out is by this time Brees and Brady will be long gone and Ryan will have a realistic shot at all the passing titles. That might be hard to pass up (get it?) and Ryan might keep going.
17. Dallas
Ho boy where do we start? Dallas is in a continual state of chaos, but now that head coach Jason Garrett was finally taken out behind the barn it could be time for some stability. Mike McCarthy isn’t a sexy hire (in any sense of the word), but he can coach and likely will have more answers than Garrett did.
Draft: Ben DiNucci, 7.231
DiNucci is likely here to contend for the backup spot given the lack of backup talent on the roster. Cooper Rush and Clayton Thorson are not much to write home about so DiNucci probably has a legit shot at making the roster as a 7th round pick.
Next Season Starter: Dak Prescott
Ho boy, where do we start? Prescott should be the likely starter but given how bad the relations have become between him and Dallas management it’ll be interesting to see how things go with him this season. Prescott is by far the most talented qb on the roster, and won’t get much competition from DiNucci and Co.
EDIT: Andy Dalton is here now! He makes for a solid backup for Prescott as he comes with experience and at $7 mil is a relatively cheap backup. The other thing to watch here is if Dak doesn’t play ball in negotiations, does Dalton find a way to slide in and take the starting job in 2021?
5 Seasons From Now Starter: Some FCS guy. Not the current FCS guy.
Ho boy, where do we start? The Prescott/Dallas management situation is reminiscent of what just happened with Washington and Kirk Cousins. That ended well for Cousins who got paid well as a franchise tagged player and eventually with a full contract from Minnesota. Prescott is eager to follow that success by getting his own big contract. Prescott is asking for $40 million a year which sounds crazy now but in two years, provided the American economy doesn’t totally collapse and rely on chickens as currency, all of the top qbs will have that as their salary.
Dallas won’t pay so Prescott is unlikely to stay.
21. Philadelphia
Draft: Jalen Hurts, 2.53
This sure made things more interesting. After Carson Wentz secured the long term starting job from Nick Foles it seemed like everything was good for him. Now, he’ll have to contend with Hurts, a supremely talented but somehow overlooked qb who has a strange tendency to come up short. Hurts’ college career was interesting as he went 25-2 as a starter at Alabama, went to two CFP championships, lost one, then lost the starting job during the second. Hurts went to Oklahoma, went back to the CFP, lost to LSU and then finished second in the Heisman to LSU QB Joe Burrow. So that’s 3 playoff appearances as a starter, two championship appearances as a starter, and then fell to the second round in the draft.
Next Season Starter: Carson Wentz
The great enigma. Who would you rather have?
Player A: 32-24, 63.8% comp pct., 14191 yards, 97 TDs, 35 INTs
Player B: 28-22, 61.9% comp pct., 11901 yards, 71 TDs, 35 INTs
Player A is Carson Wentz
Player B is Nick Foles
Amazingly, there were people clamoring for the Eagles to cut Player A in favor of B. Yes, Foles won the Super Bowl when Wentz was physically unable to play. Wentz also got the team to an 11-2 start and left Foles in a great spot to finish the season. It’s been a struggle for Wentz since then as injuries have crept in far more than you want in your franchise qb. Wentz’ completion percentage has risen while his TD rate and overall TDs have fallen. He still doesn’t make a lot of mistakes. He’s consistently thrown seven interceptions a year the last three, so if he can find a way to get the TD numbers back up he’ll be a top player again.
Whether Wentz can recreate that magic remains to be seen, but the starting job should easily be his. Hurts will be the only real challenger. The only other qbs on the roster are Kyle Lauletta and Nate Sudfield, who are both more interesting for having last names that Word refuses to believe are real words.
5 Seasons From Now Starter: Jalen Hurts
Wentz is 27, but his contract runs out one year before 2025. Hard to imagine a situation where he can stay healthy long enough to get that next contract here. \Wentz looks closer to the Andy Dalton/Cam Newton situation where he’ll be looking for a new team after this big contract runs out.
Hurts is unlikely to stay here that long as a backup without winning the job which could happen after one more big Wentz injury. So let’s put him here and laugh in five years when we’re all dead.
22. Minnesota
Skol! Welcome to Cousins country. Minnesota felt like a team on the verge of breaking through last year, and given the state of the NFC North they should be back as a playoff team. Can this team make any headway though?
Draft: Nate Stanley, 7.244
Training camp fodder.
Next Season Starter: Kirk Cousins
The Vikings have their man. They like Cousins, they love Cousins, they want Cousins to be the guy for a long time, and have treated him well after his debacle in Washington. Cousins appears to have this job locked up for quite a long time.
This will be his 9th season and 6th as a full-time starter, and there’s something a bit off about him. He’s 44-42-1 overall which isn’t great, but he’s been improving in key categories. His interceptions have dropped from 13 to 10 to 6 over the last three seasons a remarkable comedown. His TDs have fluctuated: 27 to 30 to 26, but the TD rate is improving from 5.0%, 5.0% to 5.9%. Last year he had his first 10-win season as a starter which is a nice change. So it’s possible that Cousins can put it all together next season and finally take the Vikings deep in the playoffs.
The starting job should be his. Sean Mannion and Jake Browning, two good Pac-12 qbs who have done nothing in the NFL, are unlikely to beat him out or even see much action. Mannion was the backup last year and only got to play in the final game after Minnesota’s playoff spot was secure. Mannion went 12/21, 126, 0 TDs and 2 INTs. Browning was an UDFA by Minnesota last year and spent the year on the practice squad.
5 Seasons From Now Starter: Kirk Cousins
Cousins will be 32 in August, and that would make him 37 in five seasons. The Vikings seem pretty sure that Cousins is the guy but his contract only runs through 2023 at the moment. It’s likely that he gets another small extension in 2022 which would keep him there for the full five year period.
24. New Orleans
Draft: Tommy Stevens, 7.240
This seems like training camp fodder, but when you have a franchise quarterback on the wrong side of 40 you have to start wondering what each qb move means. Stevens, a decent qb at Mississippi State, is unlikely to wrest control of the offense from those above him on the depth chart, but he might be someone who sticks around, especially since Drew Brees has had injury woes of late.
Next Season Starter: Drew Brees
Brees continues to be the King of New Orleans, although with Zion’s rise over with the Pelicans maybe his time is coming due.
As far as football goes, Brees is the only real option to work with here. Should they sign Jameis Winston (no official deal as of this writing), that at least gives New Orleans a usable backup and one that could benefit Jameis in the long run. Brees’ age is going to be a factor over the long season, and given that he didn’t make it the whole way last year, so having a capable backup is extremely necessary after the departure of Teddy Bridgewater.
Taysom Hill continues to be an interesting experiment but one that the Saints don’t appear all that interested in. Hill is going to be 30 when the season starts, and has a whopping 13 pass attempts in two seasons. New Orleans will probably have to decide soon just what they plan on doing with him.
5 Seasons From Now Starter: No one on this roster
Brees will be gone in five years, Hill will have vanished from the NFL, and Winston will have moved onto another team. The Saints will be drafting near the top of the draft as soon as Brees is gone so that’s likely when their future savior arrives.
26. Green Bay
Draft: Jordan Love, 1.26
The Packers drafted Jordan Love to replace Aaron Rodgers nearly fifteen years to the day when Green Bay drafted Aaron Rodgers to replace Brett Favre. Truly Green Bay is living the Circle of Life.
Next Season Starter: Aaron Rodgers
Rodgers is in charge here as long as he wants to be (which might not be for much longer given how angry he is right now). Rodgers has been the captain at Lambeau Field for over a decade and nothing has really changed over the last twelve months outside of having his replacement shoved in front of him.
Love won’t be ready to play this season and I doubt the Packers have any interest in putting him out there. But that leaves the backup spot in jeopardy. The main backup is Tim Boyle, a man who went 3/4 for 15 yards last season in his lone passing appearance – deep in a blowout loss to the 49ers. There’s also UDFA Jalen Morton who is unlikely to make the team but will hang on through training camp.
The Packers desperately need Rodgers to stay healthy all season because this is a team that has Super Bowl ambitions but a roster that will make the playoffs through duct tape and sheer will.
5 Seasons From Now Starter: Jordan Love
Well it kinda has to be right? They traded up for him, angered their franchise qb, and have set up expectations that Love will be the next Packer QB for 15 years following Favre and Rodgers. If the succession works, Green Bay will be looked upon as a model franchise. If not, this move will be heavily scrutinized and their GM will be looking for a new job.
27. Seattle
A quiet year in Seattle last year as they look to figure out how to get back on top of the NFC West after ceding control to the Rams in 2018 and the 49ers in 2019.
Next Season Starter: Russell Wilson
Not a controversial pick here. Wilson is one of the most reliable and consistent QBs in the league, and despite his Super Bowl success he somehow feels underrated. Wilson has started every game since arriving in the league in 2012 and there’s little doubt now as to whether he’ll be the Day 1 starter now.
Wilson will have to be good since Seattle amazingly only has one qb on the roster right now. This will likely change as they add a vet like Bortles, Dalton or Newton, but Seattle will have to take great care of the Pride of the Northwest.
5 Seasons From Now Starter: Russell Wilson
Wilson will be 36 in five years, the same age that Aaron Rodgers is right now. This likely means that Seattle can still get multiple good seasons out of Wilson before having to look to replace him long term.
28. Baltimore
Next Season Starter: Lamar Jackson
Jackson had a breakout year in 2019 and has placed himself in the upper tier of starting NFL qbs. One more season like that and people will start moving him nearer to the elite tier of qbs, of which there are precious few right now.
Jackson’s stats were eye popping. After a 6-1 start in 2018 where he completed 58.2% of his passes, threw 6 TDs and 3 INTs, he went crazy in 2019. 13-2 record, 66.1% of his passes were completed, 36 TDs with a whopping 9.0% TD rate (meaning almost one out of every ten passes was a touchdown), and only 6 INTs. While the interceptions went up, from 3 to 6, his interception rate actually went down (1.8% in 2018 to 1.5% in 2019). Jackson improved in almost every facet of the game and these numbers only cover his passing stats. He added another seven TDs as a rusher bringing him to 43 for the season!
Robert Griffith III remains as a backup on the last year of a contract, and 6th rd pick from 2019 Trace McSorley is likely to be the long term backup in B’more.
5 Seasons From Now Starter: Lamar Jackson
It’s got to be Jackson! He’s only 23 and should be here for a long time. The only thing that could mess that up is if Ravens management hassles him on a long term deal.
29. Tennessee
Draft: Cole McDonald, 7.224
For a 7th round pick he currently has a good shot of making the team since Tennessee only has two qbs on the roster. Plus he got rid of the dreads.
Next Season Starter: Ryan Tannehill
Tannehill played his way into a starting job after taking over for failed starter Marcus Mariota. Previously considered a washout in Miami, Tannehill’s resurgence under head coach Mike Vrabel in Tennessee paid off BIG. $118 million big. The deal makes Tannehill a franchise qb in Tennessee for the foreseeable future.
Backups include previously mentioned UDFA Cole McDonald and 4th year pro Logan Woodside who has never taken a snap in an NFL game. This is the Tannehill show, for better or worse.
5 Seasons From Now Starter: Ryan Tannehill
He’ll be 32 in July which makes him 37 five years from now. Ordinarily I’d say this means someone else will be there but the Titans have two reasons to go with him:
- They’re paying him a lot for a long time.
- They don’t consider him a primary weapon.
Tannehill was subservient to Derrick Henry in the playoffs, and the Titans will likely rise and fall based off Henry’s play, not Tannehill’s. It’s weird to give $118 million to a qb you don’t even trust to throw passes in the playoffs but Vrabel also said he’d cut his own penis off if it meant he’d win a Super Bowl so who knows?
32. Kansas City
The Super Bowl champs now have the tough task of trying to win back-to-back Super Bowls, a feat not done since the Patriots won Super Bowl 38 and 39.
Next Season Starter: Patrick Mahomes
A no-brainer. Mahomes got the Chiefs the elusive ring 50 years after their last championship. Mahomes has been positively deadly since arriving in the NFL and should continue to lead this franchise for years to come.
Especially since there is little else to challenge him for a starting spot. Chad Henne is here, he of 18-35 fame, who hasn’t started a game since 2014. Also XFL standout Jordan Ta’amu, of the St. Louis Battlehawks, is here off a decent campaign where he completed 72% of his passes. Ta’amu might even wind up being the main backup given his young age and recent good play. Henne’s last good year was 2009 when he had his only winning record, 7-6.
5 Seasons From Now Starter: Patrick Mahomes
I know the Chiefs and Mahomes are currently far apart in contract negotiations, but they appear to be held in good faith as opposed to the Cowboy/Dak negotiations which were a train wreck from the beginning. Mahomes is too valuable to let go and KC knows it. A deal will be done and he’ll be here for quite a while.
THE TEAMS WITHOUT A FIRST ROUND PICK
34. Indianapolis
Draft: Jacob Easton, 4.122
Eason appears to be an odd choice at first, but the Colts will have no qbs on the roster in 2021 other than Eason so he appears to be here to be a long term project/backup at worst, and a starter at best.
Next Season Starter: Phillip Rivers
Colts paid too much money for Rivers to sit. Rivers brings all of his experience to a qb-coached team and what appears to be an aggressive offense in hopes of chasing that elusive ring. The Colts have to think they have a shot this year or else this move would be kinda stupid.
Should Rivers run into trouble, Jacoby Brissett is still here, and EMCC legend Chad Kelly is as well.
5 Seasons From Now Starter: Someone in college
It’s tempting to say Jacob Eason since Rivers, Brissett and Kelly are ALL free agents at the end of the season. Eason would have the team to himself but the Colts are likely to bring a vet in to keep the team together while Eason learns.
Eason, a decent player but not a standout at the University of Washington, didn’t impress much and should have stayed in college an extra season. Instead he’ll be on the bench for awhile learning which could prove beneficial but it’s hard to pass on the idea of some other first round qb coming in and stealing the job from him.
37. New England
Let’s see, nothing to see here, right? Same coach, ownership, offense. Looks good to me.
Next Season Starter: Brian Hoyer?
Our first major question mark. New England will be playing without Tom Brady for the first time since just after Hanging Chads were an important topic in our nation’s discourse. New England drafted no qbs, and appears to be going into the season with just Brian Hoyer and Jarret Stidham as their qbs.
Hoyer would appear to be the likelier opener given his vet status and familiarity with head coach Bill Belichick’s system. Yes, Hoyer hasn’t won a start as a qb since 2016 which was four franchises ago in Chicago. But Stidham only attempted four passes in his rookie season, going 2/4, 14 with one interception. It should be Hoyer.
Yes, UDFA Brian Lewerke and J’Mar Smith were both signed and it’s tempting to think Belichick will throw a curveball but it’s hard to bet against Hoyer at this point unless something major happens like a vet signing or a major injury occurring.
5 Seasons From Now Starter: Could be anyone
For the Patriots, five years into the future means the end of everything we know about them. Tom Brady is already gone, Bill Belichick will be 73, and owner Robert Kraft will be 83. The idea that Belichick is still coaching in five years seems unlikely. A new coach means a whole new approach and the likely end of the Patriot Way. Depending on when that new coach takes over we could be talking about signing veterans or a college qb.
40. Houston
Next Season Starter: Deshaun Watson
Watson has secured his spot on the roster as the starting qb and it appears to be his for some time to come. Watson has had three good seasons in the NFL and appears poised to make a move this season as a hot up and coming qb. He got surpassed a little by Lamar Jackson in Baltimore who was doing everything Watson did, but a little bit better and at a faster growth rate. This could be good for Watson as expectations of Super Bowls drift towards Lamar while Watson can thrive as an underdog.
Other qbs here? AJ McCarron, who once had his wife drooled on by Brent Musberger on live television, and Alex McGough, who constantly has to explained that he didn’t play at Florida Atlantic but “the other one,” Florida International.
5 Seasons From Now Starter: Deshaun Watson
Watson is a franchise qb and will be paid accordingly. His contract expires after 2021 but an extension is likely for him. The only thing that could complicate this is if head coach Bill O’Brien is fired and a new coach doesn’t like Watson.
43. Chicago Bears
Oh boy, the ultimate qb franchise right now. They once traded up one spot for their starting qb and just this week declined to pick up his fifth-year option.
Next Season Starter: Mitchell Trubisky…with peering eyes over his shoulder
This is a real strange one. Trubisky appears to have the inside spot on backup Nick Foles, but the competition will be tough in training camp. A bad performance in preseason could wreck things for either guy.
Trubisky appeared to be the long term answer after his second year when he took a big step forward, but then struggled in season three and it was enough of a decline for Chicago to decline that contract option meaning that this is Trubisky’s last year in Chicago…..unless he has a great year. Chicago’s long term outlook is part of what has kept them in the toilet for so long.
But don’t get things twisted. Foles is a good backup and likely to usurp the starting job before the season is over but he is not without his own flaws. Foles has been incredibly unlucky with injuries. This will be his ninth season and he’s only started 10 games or more twice (2013 and 2015) and even then they were only for 10 and 11 starts, respectively. He’s never started 16, 15, 14, 13, or even 12 games in a single season so reliability is a major problem. Do you want to be on a qb who has never won more than eight games in a year?
The Bears are currently making that bet right now but I think they’re headed for a long season.
Tyler Bray rounds out this crew having been in the league since 2014, with no career starts, and only ONE career passing attempt: incomplete. And that was in 2017.
5 Seasons From Now Starter: Trevor Lawrence?
This is a team that looks headed for disaster. The team has given up on Trubisky, and gambled big on Foles, something that Jacksonville did last year and dumped him for nothing to Chicago. The Bears are better off tanking, letting both guys walk and take Trevor Lawrence.
49. Pittsburgh
The Steelers, an old school franchise, represent the last of the 2004 QB Draft Class still with their original team. Ben Roethlisberger, a career Steeler, is still hanging on in the Steel City even though his time appears to be coming to a close.
Next Season Starter: Ben Roethlisberger
Roethlisberger will get the job because he has the most likely qb on the roster to actually win anything for Pittsburgh. Any chance the Steelers have of returning to the Super Bowl rests on whether or not they can keep Roethlisberger healthy and active the whole season. He only played in two games last season so it’ll be almost a year off for him before he can get back into a game.
The Steelers have some interesting choices ahead of them. They currently have five quarterbacks on the roster and will likely keep three at the most.
The backups:
Paxton Lynch: 1-3 record, 61.7% completion percentage, 4 TDs-4 INTs
Mason Rudolph: 5-3 record, 62.6% completion percentage, 13 TDs-9 INTs
Devlin Hodges: 3-3 record, 62.5% completion percentage, 5 TDs-8 INTs
J.T. Barrett: Never taken a snap
So….Barrett is a likely cut given that he has the least in-game experience. Paxton Lynch, a former first round draft pick for Denver, is the next likeliest cut given that he has not played in a game since 2017.
That leaves Rudolph and Hodges as the likely backups, who both played for Pittsburgh last year when Ben got hurt. Neither was incredibly impressive although Rudolph showed more potential than Hodges. Hodges made a larger name because announcers Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth learned that Hodges’ nickname is Duck and wouldn’t stop calling him that in his one NBC Sunday Night appearance.
5 Seasons From Now Starter: Mason Rudolph…or someone else
Roethlisberger should be long gone by then. He just turned 38 and has had injury troubles as of late so five more full seasons seems a bit unlikely. Rudolph showed the most potential of the quarterbacks on the current roster but there didn’t appear to be a big push to make him the franchise quarterback just yet. Pittsburgh will have to make a choice soon. Both Roethlisberger and Rudolph’s contacts end in 2021 and Pittsburgh will have to pay a pretty penny to keep both on the roster.
52. Los Angeles Rams
Next Season Starter: Jared Goff
Goff, a former NFC Champion, got his reward for that championship by getting a four-year/$134 million contract. The Rams paid Goff and are expecting big things from him. He’ll have to rebound from his Super Bowl Hangover which saw him drop from 32 to 22 TDs and increase his interceptions from 12 to 16. Goff’s numbers across the board dipped, but was that from him, an entire team hangover, or head coach Sean McVay trying to switch things up too much?
We don’t have the answers just yet but we’ll know quickly if the Rams are free falling or about to right the ship. They’ll have to do it carefully as they’re in major cap space trouble and had to jettison key offensive players Todd Gurley and Brandin Cooks.
The starting job at qb is at least set as Goff would get this job simply based on the other quarterbacks listed on their roster: John Wolford, Josh Love, and Bryce Perkins. You don’t know who they are. You don’t know which one is an UDFA do you? In fact, there are two UDFAs in this group and they were both picked up this week! Goff has no competition right now but also no help if anything goes sideways. None of them have any in-game experience or have taken a single snap in the NFL so if Goff gets hurt the Rams are in deep trouble.
The Rams would appear likely then to reach out and pick up a veteran to help add some depth to this team. I don’t know that you can go into the season with three backups who have a combined 0 snaps.
5 Seasons From Now Starter: Jared Goff
Goff’s contract runs out in 2024, one year shy of when this date would come up. Given their salary cap troubles now it’s easy to see how the Rams could decide to move on from a very expensive qb at that point. Annual contracts could be $40-$45 for elite qbs at this point so the Rams might be better off finding a rookie qb and grooming him the way McVay did with Goff a few years ago. But if there was one player the Rams would decide to hold onto given their cap troubles it’s Goff. It’s hard to replace Super Bowl caliber qbs in the NFL and the Rams have their guy for now.
54. Buffalo
Last up are the Bills.
Draft: Jake Fromm, 5.167
This is an interesting pickup given that he slid for days, but wound up on a team where the backups aren’t good, and their contracts are close to being over. Fromm could be a steal for Buffalo who in 2021 could have Josh Allen as the starter and Fromm as the backup as he learns on the job. And with Allen entering his third-year, if he doesn’t work out, Fromm is a very cheap alternative to slide in.
Next Season Starter: Josh Allen
This is the big year for Allen. He’s had two rough years on the job but took a step forward last year, and now the Bills are looking for another massive leap forward. Allen still has a lot of question marks on him in terms of whether he can be the franchise quarterback that the Bills are hoping for. Allen has a 56.3% completion percentage after two years, although it did jump from 52.8% to 58.8% last year. His touchdowns doubled from 10 to 20 as well but he only has a 3.8% career TD rate which is very low compared to other starters. He did drop his interceptions from 12 to 9, a good improvement but he’s also dead last among starting quarterbacks completing passes of 20 yards or more downfield. If he’s to take a step forward he needs to up his completion percentage overall this season, keep the TD rate increasing and find a way to complete bombs downfield. That’s a lot for a third-year quarterback who is trying to lead this team to its first playoff win in 25 years.
Allen has Matt Barkley again as his primary backup, but Barkley is entering his final year of his contract and could be gone soon. That doesn’t leave much for Buffalo besides Davis Webb, a third-year player out of Cal who has never taken a snap in the NFL. Having Fromm there should make for a fun training camp (if there is one) as Webb is likely to find himself the odd man out.
5 Seasons From Now Starter: Josh Allen or Jake Fromm
Buffalo seems to have a fairly easy decision to make at the end of this upcoming season. If Allen plays well, he’ll get his fifth-year option picked up followed by a large extension. If he doesn’t work out, Fromm takes over in 2021 on the cheap and Buffalo finds out if he’s the real deal or not.
QB Watch 