QB Watch Games of the Week – Week 3 Edition

1. Ryan Fitzpatrick (5-10) @ Gardner Minshew II (7-7)

This game was originally a T3 classic – A Thursday Tanking for Trevor. The Jaguars, led by Minshew, appeared to be a natural contender for the #1 slot in next year’s draft, but thanks to strong play from Minshew the Jaguars are 1-1 this season and looking like they’re going to show signs of life. On the other side are the Dolphins, led by Fitzpatrick, who were the classic tankers last year in the Tank for Tua episode. This year, they don’t appear to be tanking for Trevor, but have found themselves at 0-2 and looking like one of the worst teams in the AFC.

The 2020 tale of the tape:

Minshew: 49/65, 75.4, 512, 6 tds, 9.2%, 2 INT, 3.1%

Fitzpatrick: 51/77, 66.2%, 519, 2 tds, 2.6%, 3 INT, 3.9%

Minshew has thrown for 7 less yards on 8 less passes but thrown triple the TDs, one less INT and completed almost 10% more. Minshew, a 6th round pick last year, has established himself as a real deal starter in the NFL. One note of concern is that Minshew only threw 6 INTs all of last year in his 12 starts and already has 2 after 2 starts. That perhaps comes with the territory as Jacksonville is more comfortable with him passing and has given him the green light more often. This has paid off as last year he had a 4.5% TD rate, and this year has a 9.2% TD rate so he’s effectively throwing a TD twice as often. Minshew has still technically not even played a full season having only 14 starts so he’s still in a rookie phase, but the leap so far has been astronomical.

Fitzpatrick, who is destined to lose his job to Tua Tagovailoa, is holding on for dear life. His numbers have been decent, but a plummeting TD rate along with a rising INT rate has many concerned that he’s not long for the NFL, especially in Miami. Fitzpatrick will get a reprieve in a sense because it’s unlikely that the Dolphins will bench him for Tua in order to let Tua recover from his injuries sustained at Alabama, so Fitzpatrick will have time to right the ship. But it’s not looking good.

This game should be pass heavy and it’s likely that Minshew will come away with another victory and secure his starting job even more.

2. Dwayne Haskins (3-6) @ Baker Mayfield (13-18)

Rare in this day and age to get a matchup in the NFL with two quarters with a sub 60% completion percentage. Haskins (56.3%) and Mayfield (59.7%) will take the field in what should be a battle of 0-2 teams, but both qbs snuck a victory out already.

The 2020 tale of the tape:

Haskins: 36/64, 56.3, 401, 2 Tds, 3.1%, 0 INT, 0

Mayfield: 37/62, 59.7, 408, 3 Tds, 4.8%, 2 INT, 3.2%

In 11 career starts, Haksins has thrown for under 60% in a game seven times, with one start exactly at 60%. Another sub 60% game here likely means a big loss for Washington as they have little else to rely on going forward. In his 11 career starts, Haskins has thrown for under 200 yards eight times meaning that it’s likelier that he’ll have a sub 60%, sub 200 yard passing game than not. Washington will have to decide fairly soon if Haskins is worth the long developmental process as early signs show that not much is changing from last season.  

Cleveland accidentally stumbled onto a winning formula for Mayfield by finding ways to take the ball out of his hands more. By relying more on the running game, Cleveland was able to take lots of time off the clock while moving at a stronger pace downfield. Mayfield only threw for 219 against Cincinnati but completed 69.5% of his passes on only 23 attempts.

Fun stat: Cleveland is 6-2 when they have Mayfield throw for under 30 passes. In those 8 games, 6 times or more he threw for 75% or higher. So what do we make of this? Mayfield, in limited operations, is a really good quarterback. Limiting his numbers takes pressure off him and it also limits plays where he has to scramble, and then make a mistake when trying to pull something off

This game will be an absolute mess unless Cleveland sticks with the winning formula: Keep Mayfield to sub 30 pass attempts. If they do that, Cleveland should dominate with their run game and keep Mayfield in check long enough to snuff Haskins’ weak offense.

3. Joe Burrow (0-2) @ Carson Wentz (32-26)

A true crossroads game. Burrow, the #1 pick in this year’s draft, appears to be on his way up in the NFL. After two starts he’s shown poise, and a comfort in the pocket that rookies don’t tend to have. He doesn’t make a lot of mistakes, and if it wasn’t for his WR getting flagged for offensive pass interference, Burrow would likely be 1-1 right now.

Wentz, a former #1 pick, and a man who has a Super Bowl ring, has been to the top but appears headed for the bottom. This season has been a total disaster so far for him and the Eagles and nothing appears to be going right. A surprise loss to Washington on opening day helped them get off on the wrong foot and now they’re 0-2.

The tale of the tape:

Burrow: 60/97, 61.9, 509, 3 TDs, 3.1%, 1, 1.0%

Wentz: 50/85, 58.8, 512, 2 TDs, 2.4%, 4, 4.7%

Burrow appears to be on the upswing after a 316 yd, 3 TD, 0 INT performance against Cleveland last week. Something that is worrying is Cincinnati’s over reliance on his arm. Cincinnati had Burrow throw 61 pass attempts last week. There are four starters in the NFL who have played both games and not thrown 61 pass attempts (Mayfield just ekes this out at 62). Cincinnati will absolutely have to develop a running game to take pressure off their young quarterback as they move forward or they’ll run the risk of both tipping their hand and getting him killed behind an awful offensive line.

Wentz is on pace for his worst season yet in the pros. This would be his only sub 60% completion percentage season, and his lowest TD rate since he was a rookie in 2016 (2.6%). He’s only thrown 7 INTS each season for the last three years and all with sub 2% INT rates compared to his 4.7% in 2020. It’s very possible that he’ll overcome some of these early stumbling blocks and put up numbers closer to what we’ve seen from him in the past, but the early returns in 2020 are quite disheartening.

This game is likely to go in Cincinnati’s favor as Burrow trends upwards and Wentz continues to trend down. If you’re a believer that someone is “due,’ then Wentz would be the person to bet on this week.

4. Sam Darnold (11-17) @ Philip Rivers (1-1)

The 2020 Tale of the Tape:

Darnold: 42/67, 62.7, 394, 2, 3.0%, 1, 1.5%

Rivers: 55/71, 77.5, 577, 2, 2.8, 3, 4.2%

Darnold is a mystifying quarterback as his numbers continue to rise each year he’s played in the NFL, but not fast enough for most people, and not fast enough to make his team any better

            %         TDs     TD%   INT      INT%

2018    57.7     17        4.1       15        3.6

2019    61.9     19        4.3       13        2.9

2020    62.7     2          3.0       1          1.5

The 2020 numbers are a work in progress, but his comp pct is going up, and his INT rate is going down. His TD numbers are sluggish to start 2020, and that’s definitely something to keep an eye on. But all signs point to incremental development for him.

Perhaps most importantly is this stat:

2018    4-9 as starter

2019    7-6 as starter

The problem is that Jets didn’t feel like a team that was improving last season. Maybe it’s because they started Luke Falk at QB, maybe because Sam Darnold had mono, or maybe it’s because they’re a team that is irrelevant in the NFL.

2020 appears to be Darnold’s biggest test as he’s spotted himself an 0-2 start and outpacing his performance from last season could be tough. But if he can’t beat those numbers then there’s little chance that he can be a long-term starter in the NFL.

Rivers, on the other hand, is trying to outpace Father Time and starting to show real signs he’s about to lose that race. He’s lost his fastball as a quarterback and his numbers have begun to shrink:

            %         TDs     TD%   INT      INT%

2018    68.3     32        6.3       12        2.4

2019    66.0     23        3.9       20        3.4

2020    77.5     2          2.8       3          4.2

Some people will point to the increased completion percentage this year as a sign that Rivers still has something left. But his TD rate is nearly down 2/3 compared to just two years ago, ,while his INT rate is close to double what it was two years ago. The Colts managed to sign Rivers to a 1-year deal which means they can bail on him before the 2021 season, which they’ll likely have to. Rivers turns 40 in December and doesn’t appear that he can play the way he used to.

But it can still work for them in 2020. Much like the Browns limiting Mayfield, the Colts limited what Rivers could do last week against Minnesota. He only threw 25 times, completing 19, and throwing for 214 yards. A very below average day for Rivers who is in the top 10 in every important passing statistic. But the Colts were able to lean on rookie RB Jonathan Taylor who helped the Colts escape with a 28-11 win. It didn’t hurt that Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins was absolutely terrible. But keeping Rivers’ numbers down on purpose in order to spread the ball around and keep things moving could be a winning formula for Indianapolis.

This game will likely come down to which QB makes the least mistakes. Rivers already has 3 INTs compared to Darnold’s 1. But Darnold has been sacked twice as much as Rivers, 4-2. A mild lean in favor of the Colts seems likely, but if Rivers’ attempts starts rising a Jets victory seems possible.

The 2020 Week 2 Replacements

We saw several backup quarterbacks have to come in and relieve, or in one case start for, their starters due to injuries in Week 2. Here is a ranking of each person’s performance:

4. Andy Dalton, Dallas

Dalton, a former decade plus starter for the Cincinnati Bengals, was relived of his starting duties midway through the previous season in Cincinnati before that job was returned to him when his backup proved to be even worse than he was. Dalton was ultimately not brought back to Cincinnati after Joe Burrow was drafted to be his successor.

Jerry Jones took a liking to what he saw in Dalton and brought him in as Dak Prescott’s backup for a cool $3 million. This number is important because they paid him almost twice as much as New England did to Cam Newton to start.

Dalton came in midway through the third quarter after Dak was rocked on a hit near the goal line. Against all common wisdom, Dallas allowed Dalton an opportunity to throw a pass which sailed out of bounds for an incompletion.

Prescott returned to the game shortly thereafter.

Final numbers for Andy Dalton: 0/1, 0 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs

3. Nick Mullens, San Francisco 49ers

Mullens is the only one on this list who was on their current team last year, as well as being the only one who started a game for their current team. The 49ers saw a lot of Nick Mullens in 2018 after Jimmy Garoppolo went down with a knee injury. Mullens went 3-5 as a starter for them, completing 64% of his passes, along with a 14 TD, 10 INT run.

He entered today’s game against the New York Jets after Garoppolo was unable to return due to an ankle injury. The ankle injury came early in the game when he was rolled up during a sack, but despite that Garoppolo played the entire first half and played well throwing 2 TDs and leaving the game with a 21-3 lead. The lead against an inferior team was the likely reason the 49ers decided Jimmy G would not play during the second half.

Mullens played solidly but did not wow anyone. He was playing without TE George Kittle who did not play at all, and then lost starting RB Raheem Mostert in the second half to a leg injury. This slowed the 49er offense for most of the second half, although Mullens did lead two scoring drives to keep the Jets at bay and give the 49ers a 31-13 victory. He also threw an interception that killed another potential drive.

Garoppolo must be hurt because head coach Kyle Shanahan said the team would look at bringing in veteran quarterbacks this week. It’s also an indictment on what Shanahan saw from Mullens. It’s possible that Mullens would get a start next week if Garoppolo is unable to play as signing a veteran qb and having him learn the system in that time is almost impossible.

Final numbers for Nick Mullens: 8/11, 71 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INTs

2. Jeff Driskel, Denver Broncos

Driskel first appeared on QB Watch’s radar last year as a backup in Detroit for Matthew Stafford. Driskel went 0-3 as the emergency starter there, and that’s after a 1-4 run as the emergency stater in Cincinnati the year before. He entered today’s game in Denver after starter Drew Lock took a vicious hit to his right shoulder in the first quarter.

It’s unlikely he had much time with the first-string offense in practice at all so far, so Driskel coming in as an emergency backup did raise alarms amongst the Denver faithful. Despite that, Driskel actually played well, having inherited a 7-0 deficit to the Pittsburgh Steelers and keeping the Broncos in the game until the end where they ultimately lost 26-21. He looked rusty during the first half, but in the second half started to loosen up, make first downs and show enough leadership that Denver was able to put several scoring drives together. He showed enough poise and flash during the game that he could be a decent starter for Denver with more practice and reps with the first-team offense.

Driskel, who also makes more than Cam Newton, is the likely starter for Denver next week should Lock’s shoulder continue to be an issue. But Denver has no other quarterbacks on the roster so they may be in a competition with San Francisco to in order to fill out their roster.

Final numbers for Jeff Driskel: 18/34, 256 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT

1. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers

Our only quarterback on this list who started a game this week, and a rookie to boot. Herbert was drafted 6th overall by the Chargers in the 2020 NFL Draft and there was a lot of speculation that he may not be game ready for the Chargers which led them to sign veteran Tyrod Taylor as the starter while Herbert developed.

In a cruel twist of fate, Taylor suffered a strange pre-game injury that has yet to be fully explained. Either way, Herbert was called into immediate action and told he was going to start his first game. Today. Against the defending Super Bowl Champs, the Kansas City Chiefs. Not an easy task for many quarterbacks, let alone someone making their NFL debut.

Herbert showed right away that he was not your average rookie. Much like the 1st pick in this draft, Joe Burrow, Herbert appears to be farther along in terms of player development than most. On his very first drive, Herbert completed several big passes and ran in for a score to put them up 7-0. He played well enough to put them up 14-6 at the half, 17-9 at the end of the third quarter and had them in a position to win the game late in the 4th quarter when the game was tied 17-17 and the Chargers were at the goal line. Head coach Anthony Lynn took the ball out of Herbert’s hands and repeatedly tried to run the ball in, which is a move that may have cost them the win as the Chargers were unable to get a TD.

A lot of the Chargers’ lead can be tied with the fact that Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes was having a disastrous game until the 4th quarter. But that still shouldn’t take anything away from the fact that Herbert never truly struggled in his pro debut. He did throw a costly interception but for the most part Herbert was able to keep the ball moving, showing great poise in the process.

While the Chargers ultimately lost in OT, 23-20, it would be impossible for the Chargers not to start Herbert next week. Even if Tyrod Taylor is healthy and ready to go, it’s now clear that the Chargers have a potential quarterback of the future on their hands and it’s time for them to begin developing Herbert.

Final numbers for Justin Herbert: 22/33, 311 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT

QB Watch Games of the Week

Daniel Jones (3-10) @ Mitchell Trubisky (24-18)

This is a look into the future and past for both men. Daniel Jones is looking to prove that he’s the true heir to the New York Giants QB legacy and avoid the pitfalls of failure that have trapped Mitchell Trubisky. Daniel Jones entered into his second season as starter with a decent performance including a small rise in completion percentage (61% last season to 63% last week). His interception rate is massively high, and while it’s only one game it’s certainly something Giants fans should be aware of as the Giants played a Pittsburgh defense that was 10th last week in giving up the most passing yards. So the Steelers were definitely allowing Jones to complete passes but somehow Jones still threw a few interceptions. Keeping that number down going forward will be crucial.

At one point, Mitchell Trubisky was comparable to Daniel Jones, and was a QB of the future for the Chicago Bears. Now, Trubisky is looking to redeem himself as he ventures into the ugly and deep waters of free agency. His first game of the season was a mixed bag. Trubisky was essentially not there for three quarters and then woke up in the fourth as he threw three TDs to push Chicago past Detroit. His 55% completion percentage was far down from last season’s 63%. Trubisky will need a major game here to prove that he’s worthy of staying above Nick Foles on the depth chart.

This one will be left up to the gods of football. If mercy is shown, Trubisky will eke out a victory and keep his comeback alive. If the gods favor fortune, then sun will shine on Daniel Jones and the Big Apple.

Gardner Minshew (6-6) @ Ryan Tannehill (8-3)

A game of two men who weren’t expected to be starting for these teams. Minshew was drafted as a 6th round pick in the 2019 NFL Draft and was thrust into the spotlight after starter Nick Foles got injured and missed most of the season. Minshew made the most of his time as the starter and is showing signs of development. Minshew will be looked upon as a failure because his passing numbers will likely never be close to the heights he hit at Washington State University, but that’s mostly because he’ll never play in an offense that devoted to the passing game.

Minshew went 19/20 with a startling 95% completion percentage last week, while only throwing 173 yards and 3 TDs. The TDs give him an absurd league leading 15% TD rate, a number that will certainly drop rapidly but it gives Jags fans hopes that Minshew can flourish at the pro level. Minshew is also showing signs of development in throwing the ball downfield. His yard per attempt last was season was a solid 7.0, but he upped that to an 8.7 last week. If he can keep throwing the ball farther and farther downfield while upping his completion percentage he’ll be on his way to reaching the next level.

Like Minshew, Tannehill was brought into Tennessee to be a backup for the middling Marcus Mariota. Mariota was banished and Tannehill took over and also made the most of his time putting up career high numbers across the board. Tannehill’s numbers were so above his usual stats that there was a concern here at QBW that he was likely to regress hard in 2020. Though he led the Titans to a big win on Monday night on the road and had a very successful final drive, Tannehill’s numbers definitely lead one to ask questions. His TD rate dropped from a career high 7.7 to 4.7, but that could be a one week aberration. The larger concern is his yards per attempt, which was a career high 9.6 and last week was 5.8. Staying at this level would put him almost a full yard below his lowest season when he averaged 6.7 Ypa in 2013.

This game will come down to whether or not Jacksonville can move the ball in any shape or form. Jacksonville is currently 31st in the league in offensive yards and will need a vast improvement in order to win this game.

Dwayne Haskins (3-5) @ Kyler Murray (6-10-1)

The battle of the surprise guys. While they were both drafted exceedingly high, there were huge questions about whether either guy was capable of leading an NFL team. Haskins was considered unready, out of shape, and still even more unready than that first one when he took over last year for the Washington Football Team. Washington seemed to have almost no use for him as they let him ride the bench and even allowed Colt McCoy to start a game over him.

Haskins showed little signs of promise last year with a dull sub 60% completion percentage, and looked almost lost every time he snapped the ball. While his completion percentage did not improve during the first week of this season (54%), Haskins did show more poise and showed signs of life during the second half against Philadelphia. A 4th quarter comeback and a game winning drive against a divisional foe has helped turn a few heads in Haskins’ direction. An improved performance this week against Arizona, one that includes a higher comp pct and signs that TDs will start raining down, will make a lot of people really think twice about him.

Similarly, Murray was considered good but too small and without the arm strength to lead a team in the NFL. THe fact that he was going to be playing for a coach who had flamed out in college and never coached in the NFL made many think twice about this pairing. But so far the results have been promising. Murray finished last season with a solid 64% completion percentage and is right back on track after a 65% showing last week against San Francisco. While he was gifted several drives due to incompetence on the 49ers part, Murray made the most of those errors and turned them into points including a game winning drive in the fourth quarter.

Murray has yet to show signs that he’s capable of reaching the next level as a quarterback but he does add an extra element with his run game. He ran 13 times for 91 yards last week, an average of 7 yards a carry. That adds extra spice to the offense and makes defense have to work twice as hard to curtail him when Arizona has the ball.

On paper this looks like an easy Arizona victory. Arizona was 7th in the league in offense last week, while Washington was dead f’n last. Yet Washington’s defense rose the occasion and is currently in 4th in yards given up while Arizona is currently in the middle of the pack. My guess is Arizona’s defense can keep Haskins in check long enough for Murray to make a few plays and give Arizona a small but narrow victory.

Honorable Mention:

Teddy Bridgewater (0-1) @ Tom Brady (0-1)

Oh yeah, that Brady guy is playing. Eh, Carolina by 7.

Flacco Boards Jets

Sam Darnold finally has a backup in New York. The Jets signed neck surgery outpatient Joe Flacco to a one-year $4.5 million deal on Friday.

Flacco provides depth at a strained quarterback position. There was a massive drop off in experience after Darnold. David Fales, Mike White, and James Morgan have a combined nine seasons in the NFL, but have only played a combined two games, and both of those belong to Fales. Flacco’s 171 starts overshadows all of them.

Flacco is a curious signing for the Jets. While he’ll bring a veteran presence at backup, his health remains a concern. It was only two months ago that the Denver Broncos cut Flacco after he failed a physical. Flacco had neck surgery but is believed out until September 1 at the earliest. If the schedule doesn’t change due to Covid-19, the Jets’ first game will be in Buffalo on September 13. Can Flacco recover from surgery, learn a playbook, and contribute by then? Or did the Jets just buy an expensive sideline decoration?

So what the did the Jets get in this transaction? The veteran backup can help provide Darnold with much needed guidance, especially with this being Darnold’s big year to shine, but Flacco’s potential on-field play looks like it’ll be minimal at best. Was that worth $4.5 million? Unlikely.

NFL Lookout! No Backup Cams in 2020

With the news that Cam Newton is refusing to take a backup deal like Jameis Winston and Andy Dalton have, it makes one wonder what are Newton’s chances of playing in 2020?

Cam Newton was already in a bad spot given that his former team, the Carolina Panthers, switched coaches while Newton was away and that left him the odd man out. New Carolina coach Matt Rhule seemed to have no interest in bringing the former MVP back and instead seems more interested in a fresh start. To that end, the Panthers have brought in former New Orleans Saints backup Teddy Bridgewater in as the presumptive starter.

Newton could try to follow that same path as a backup and play his way back into a starting job, but Newton has outright refused to do that due to his belief that he’s earned enough accolades that he shouldn’t have to.

Should he have to? This is where it gets tricky because Newton has a been an inconsistent starter for most of his career.

2011: 6-10, 60%, 21 TDs, 17 INTs

2012: 7-9, 57.7%, 19 TDs, 12 INTs

2013: 12-4, 61.7%, 24 TDs, 13 INTs

2014: 5-8-1, 58.5%, 18 TDs, 12 INTs

2015: 15-1, 59.8%, 35 TDs, 10 INTs

2016: 6-8, 52.9%, 19 TDs, 14 INTs

2017: 11-5, 59.1%, 22 TDs, 16 INTs

2018: 6-8, 67.9%, 24 TDs, 13 INTs

2019: 0-2, 56.2%, 0 TDs, 1 INT

We can discount 2019 due to him being injured after two games in the season. Much like with Star Trek films, we can see a major difference between the odd and evens. The odd seasons appear to show a rise from the declining even seasons. The lone exception appears to be 2018 which is the only even season where Newton’s stats rise with the team’s overall record dropping. Does a quarterback who has an annual fall followed by a rise the next season, rather than consistence, deserve to get a starter’s job after a lengthy injury absence?

Newton’s career stats: 29041 passing yards, 182 TDs, 108 INTs.

Again, if you ignore the two appearances in 2019, Newton’s average stats come out to be:

3558 YDS per season

23 TDS per season

14 INTS per season

This is very close to 2018 where he threw 3395 YDS, 24 TDs, and 13 INTs.

If you take those average stats (3558 YDS, 23 TDs, 14 INTS) and plug those into 2019 this is where he’d rank:

3558 Yards     This would put him at 17th in the league, just behind Kirk Cousins and ahead of Ryan Fitzpatrick.

23 TDs            This would put him at 16th, just behind Philip Rivers and ahead of Jared Goff.

14 INTs           This would put him in the bottom 6, and tied with Andy Dalton and Matt Ryan, and just ahead of Jimmy Garoppolo.

Newton’s average stats, which is what he put up the last time he played a full season in 2018, are very close to league average at this point. Even worse, Newton’s 2018 was a rise from the previous season, indicating that a potential fall was coming.

So do you pay Cam Newton starter money? The odds would suggest that he’s likelier to at best play close to his average stats while at worst he’s poised for a fall, especially coming off a near season-long injury.

PART TWO

Those stats aside, if Cam Newton is going to be a starter what are his actual options for next season?

The Old Team:

Carolina Panthers

No starting job for Cam here.

Franchises Who are Set at QB:

Atlanta Falcons, Baltimore Ravens, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Rams, Minnesota Vikings, New Orleans Saints, Seattle Seahawks, Tennessee Titans

Of these 11 teams they’re maybe not all as solid as they appear on the surface. The Packers have definitely put Aaron Rodgers on the clock and by drafting his replacement have let him know that publicly. Detroit might not want Matthew Stafford much longer, but they’re paying Stafford starting money for three more years. Everyone else either has a qb under long-term contract or is about to (Kansas City).

None of these teams have room for a new starting qb at this point so Newton is unlikely to get a starting job here.

Franchises with Aging QBs:

Indianapolis Colts, Pittsburgh Steelers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

These three teams all have an aging but certain starter at the helm for next season. Philip Rivers is only in Indianapolis for a year, but he’ll be the starter this year. Ben Roethlisberger and Tom Brady are both headed for the finish line soon but neither is going to voluntarily give up a starting job.

Newton signing here as a potential backup would make sense because he’s likely to see the field due to injuries to the starter. But if he wants a guaranteed starting job these three teams don’t make any sense for him.

Franchises With a Potential Franchise QB:

Arizona Cardinals, Buffalo Bills, Chicago Bears, Cleveland Browns, Denver Broncos, Jacksonville Jaguars, Las Vegas Raiders, New York Giants, New York Jets, Philadelphia Eagles, San Francisco 49ers, Washington Redskins

All of these teams are in a spot where they either have a definite starter but aren’t committed long term (Philadelphia, San Francisco), are struggling to determine if who they have is the guy long term (Buffalo, Jets, Cleveland, Chicago), or have a 2nd year qb at the helm (Giants, Jacksonville, Arizona).

None of these teams have committed long term starting money to their qb. San Francisco and Philadelphia both have starting qbs with large paychecks but Jimmy Garoppolo’s contract allows him to be cut after each season with little to no penalties for the team. Philadelphia has Carson Wentz but just spent a 2nd round pick on his potential replacement so both guys have targets on them.

Buffalo, Cleveland and the Jets have young qbs who may work out in the long run but none of the three teams is convinced just yet. Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield, and Sam Darnold are all coming into their very important third season and struggles for any of them will prevent the massive qb contract from arriving. But all will start because their teams want to find out if they’re the guy or not.

Daniel Jones and Kyler Murray, both second year starters, with the Giants and Arizona respectively, appear to be potential long term guys for their teams but the jury is still out. Dwayne Haskins is also a second year starter, for Washington, but he is several steps even behind Jones and Murray. Unlike them, Haskins did not start early in the season and only took over the job when everyone else was hurt. Washington needs to find out whether they have a starter or not so he’ll be getting the starting job.

Chicago declined Mitchell Trubisky’s 5th year option and they have the unreliable Nick Foles there as well, so either guy could be the starter in 2021.

Drew Lock barely played much for Denver last season but they liked what they saw. They liked his game enough to draft mostly WRs in the 2020 Draft in order to give him weapons to show off what he can do. There doesn’t appear to be an opening here this season.

Derek Carr has been a consistent starter for the Raiders, and that’s about all the nice things anyone can say about him. He shows up every week and the franchise seems to like him. How much longer they like him is the larger question. The Raiders have brought experienced vets in to back him up this season, and appear unlikely to want to bring another qb in to send Carr to the bench.

But for Cam none of these teams have an opening at starter next season.

Franchises With a Very Young QB:

Cincinnati Bengals, Los Angeles Chargers, Miami Dolphins

All three of these teams used a first round pick on a quarterback. Cincinnati even waived long time starter Andy Dalton to make room for Joe Burrow, clearing the spot for him before training camp even starts. Miami will start Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback this season in order to give rookie Tua Tagovailoa time to heal. The Chargers don’t seem super keen on starting rookie Justin Herbert right away but they’re also unlikely to pay a starter to come in since Herbert will be taking over the reins before the season is over.

Franchises Open:

Dallas Cowboys, New England Patriots

So what do we have left? The only two spots where it appears Cam Newton could realistically start are in Dallas and New England. Even Dallas is a stretch because that would be an aggressive move by owner Jerry Jones. The negotiations with current starter Dak Prescott appear to be bordering on Cold War-tension levels, and it’s unlikely to thaw soon. Jones just brought in Andy Dalton to back Prescott up/challenge Prescott for the starting job.

In New England, it’s no longer business as usual. Bill Belichick has his choice of Jarret Stidham or Brian Hoyer, an incredibly weak looking lineup on paper. Bringing a big free agent in is not unheard of for New England, and it’s possible that they could sign Newton to a deal that pays him less than market value but guarantees him the starting job.

Likeliest option: New England

When you go down the list of places where Cam Newton could realistically start right away (which is what he’s holding out for), the options get slim very quickly. New England is the only franchise with enough room at quarterback to give Cam what he wants.

A Post-Draft Look at Who All 32 QB Starters Will Be

*The number next to each team is their first drafting slot in the 2020 NFL Draft.

1. Cincinnati

Draft: Joe Burrow, 1.01

Thomas Wolfe fans rejoice! We’re about to find if it’s true that You Can’t Go Home Again. Burrow, an Ohio native, tried to find success in the Buckeye State but was rebuffed at Ohio State before achieving his dreams down in the Bayou. Now the Prodigal Son has returned and made more than a few local heads spin when he refused to say he’d love to play for the Bengals (while also not saying he didn’t want to play there either), and raised ire by saying that local restaurant chain Skyline Chili sucks. But winning cures all and if Burrow can be the first Bengal QB in 30 years to win a playoff game, no southern Ohioans will ever talk ill of him again.

Next Season Starter: Joe Burrow

Yes, Andy Dalton is still there. Yes, Cincinnati is going to pay him a lot to sit on the bench. Dalton’s time has been a mixed bag: No Bengal QB has been to as many playoff games since Boomer Esiason as Andy Dalton (4), but Dalton also didn’t win a single one of those. And he hasn’t been to one since 2014.

Burrow will have his chance to shine as the #1 pick. In the old days the logic would have been to let him sit, but that logic has passed and now Burrow will be thrown to the wolves in Year 1. Experts already believe he’s game one ready and while we won’t know if that’s true or not for months, Burrow did look spectacular at LSU. The bar will be low for him but it’s unlikely that he’ll sit, especially at the start. Dalton will likely have a chance to win the starting job, but head coach Zak Taylor knows that his clock is already running down after a disastrous rookie campaign and he needs to get results moving in a positive direction quickly.

The question that remains is which Joe Burrow is arriving? Burrow has had one great year (maybe the best year a college QB has ever had), but is that a permanent Burrow or was that a one year aberrance under a great new system? Bengals fans and Bengals coaches will hope it’s the former.

EDIT: No, Andy Dalton is not there. He was there when the initial version of this was written. Congrats to the Bengals for making a decision that makes QB Watch look slightly accurate!

5 Seasons From Now Starter: Joe Burrow

Even if Burrow isn’t the great white hope that Cincinnati is looking for, Bengals ownership has shown great loyalty to coaches and players willing to play there. Mostly because they’re cheap and too lazy to bother finding someone else but Burrow should be the long term starter.

2. Washington

No QBs taken by them after spending a first round pick last year on Dwayne Haskins. QB play was horrendous for Washington last year, but pretty much every position was horrendous for Washington last year.

Last year’s Washington team was a mess with head coach Jay Gruden getting fired after an 0-5 start. QBs Case Keenum and Colt McCoy went a combined 1-8 with 12 TDs and 10 INTs. Nothing worked right for Washington who was hoping to let Keenum play out the season and let Haskins sit and learn. That didn’t work out (see below), for a number of reasons, including mid-season coaching changes.

First year coach Ron Rivera will try to turn the team around, a difficult task for anyone, but Rivera seems a likelier bet than Jay Gruden. Rivera is a defensive first coach which may be good for Haskins who will get time to settle in without having a coach peering over his shoulder the whole time.

Next Season Starter: Dwayne Haskins

Haskins was not considered game one ready like Burrow is this year and Haskins lived up to expectations with poor play out the gate. His first outing he went 9/17 for 108 yards and 3 interceptions. His second outing, coming off the bench, he went 3/5 for 33 yards and an interception. But Haskins began to show glimmers of success near the end of the season. In his final three games, all losses, he went 47/70 for 564 yards, 5 TDs and 1 interception.

He’ll also get the job because Washington has little other options. The backups are Kyle Allen, Carolina’s starter from last year who got the job because Cam Newton died; and Alex Smith, a one-legged man who is still getting paid a lot of money from Daniel Snyder. Washington did pick up Steven Montez from Colorado as an UDFA over the weekend, but making the roster will be extremely difficult.

5 Seasons From Now Starter: None of the Above

Since 2000, only four QBs have been the official starter for three straight seasons (Mark Brunell 2004-2006, Jason Campbell 2007-2009, RG3 2012-2014, Kirk Cousins 2015-2017), but not one QB has been the starter for four straight seasons. Mark Rypien, 1989-1993, was the last Washington QB to be the starter for that long. So the odds aren’t good for Haskins.

Even if Haskins works out and develops a contract controversy will break out near the end because that’s how these things go in Washington.

3. Detroit

It was a rough season for Detroit. Matt Stafford’s back exploded and left him unable to play for the second half the season with the team at 3-4-1. The team would not win again. Backups Jeff Driskel went 0-3 and David Blough went 0-5. Amazingly, Blough was brought back for another campaign with Detroit.

Next Season Starter: Matthew Stafford

Stafford will be the guy until the wheels fall off which may be coming sooner rather than later. He’s only 32, but the back injury was nasty and left him unable to come back for the last eight weeks of the season. Stafford was on pace for his best season, but the thing with Stafford is that for as many yards and TDs he’s thrown he just doesn’t win games. 69 wins in a149 starts doesn’t appear to be that impressive. If he played in any other era of the NFL he would have been gone years ago.

5 Seasons From Now Starter: Matthew Stafford

He’ll be 37 which is going to be a high number for a guy who has had as many injuries as he’s had. While he’s had a long streak of good luck, Stafford’s time could be coming due. We at QB Watch will never root against a QB but we also won’t bet on some of them. Aaron Rodgers is 36 and his replacement (see below) is in place so at some point in the next few seasons Detroit will have to make a similar decision. Fortunately for Stafford, Detroit isn’t as good at making long term, or short term, decisions as Green Bay.

4. NY Giants

The Eli Manning era is over, so let the Daniel Jones era begin! There’s no doubt who the team leader is in on the New York Giants. While the rookie campaign was often difficult to watch, the results were not nearly as bad as one would think when they see Jones’ 3-9 record as a starter.

Next Season Starter: Daniel Jones

Not much debate here. It’s Jones’ team now, for better or worse. Colt McCoy was picked up as a backup, which was a bold move given his disastrous run in Washington last year. But hopes are high that Jones will not need any bench time. Beyond McCoy, the Giants only have Alex Tanney and UDFA/likely summer roster cut Case Cookus from Northern Arizona.

The expectations will eventually be high given he’s replacing a two-time Super Bowl winner, but Jones has shown Giants fans that there are reasons to be positive. Jones was 3-9, but led rookie QBs with 24 TD passes, averaging two a game. The 12 interceptions are high, but if he can work on getting those down he appears to be a solid starter for the time being. His 5.2% TD rate was 11th in the league. Of his four 300 yard passing games, three of them were in the final five games indicating a growing confidence both from the coaching perspective (let Jones throw more) but also with Jones himself.

It’s unclear how much of a leap forward Jones will between Year 1 and 2, but he could have his hands tied by management. Giants management is near the bottom when it comes to making good decisions, so Jones could find himself in a bad situation if they can’t find a way to keep giving him the protection and weapons he needs as he develops.

5 Seasons From Now Starter: Daniel Jones

Barring a major injury this is Jones’ team. The Giants are building around him and planning for hopeful Super Bowls down the line.

5. Miami

Draft: Tua Tagovailoa, 1.05; Malcolm Perry, 7.246

The Dolphins were the only top five team, besides Cincinnati, to pick up a quarterback in the 2020 Draft. Whether they were really #TankingForTua or not, they found a way to get the man they wanted. Now he’s here and it’ll be interesting to see what they do with him. Given that there likely won’t be a season, Tua will have a lot of time off to get healthy.

Perry is only listed here because he played QB at Navy. ESPN listed him as a WR when he was drafted, while ESPN.com listed him as a RB. It’s unlikely Perry will ever start a game at QB for anyone in the NFL, or even be an every down player, but it’s worth mentioning because he has the potential to be Miami’s version of Taysom Hill. Perry can run, pass and catch, in that order. His decision making skills are high having run the triple-option at Navy, and he has a great sense of where potential holes are. A smart offensive coach could do a lot with Perry as a Swiss Navy Knife.  

Next Season Starter: Ryan Fitzpatrick

FitzMagic is likely to be making one last run in Miami next season. Josh Rosen and trivia answer Jake Rudock are there, but it’s unlikely that all three of these guys will still be here when training camp ends.

Between Tua’s health and the fact that they have to retool the offense for a left handed QB, it will take time before they fully hand the keys over to Tua. Fitz had a decent year in 2019 but he seems to play better when there is less pressure on him.

Fitz started the first two games with Josh Rosen looking over his shoulder and played like this: 25/50, 278, 1 TD, 4 INTs in 2 losses.

Rosen flamed out after going 0-3 as a starter and Fitz regained control with no chance of Rosen returning. Fitz finished the season going 5-6, completing 63% of his passes, threw for 3255 yards, 19 TDs and 9 INTs in the last 11 games.

Post-Rosen Fitz played far, far better. But if he can’t play well with QBs looking over his shoulder he could find himself on the bench before the season is over.

5 Seasons From Now Starter: Tua Tagovailoa

If everything goes well, Tua should be the guy for Miami down the road. Tua’s health will raise questions until he can prove that he can stay healthy for the long term. Stafford had the same problem in Detroit during his first few years, but mostly quieted those critics for the better part of a decade.

6. LA Chargers

Draft: Justin Herbert, 1.06

A new city, new stadium, new look and new quarterback. The 2020 Chargers will look very different. For the first time since 2005, the Chargers will have a different starting QB under center.

Next Season Starter: Justin Herbert

The Chargers can keep saying it’s Tyrod Taylor, but there’s no reason not to start Herbert. He might not be completely game ready, but he’s clearly the QB of the future (Taylor is only under contract for this season) so they might as well kick the tires and see what they have here.

Easton Stick from North Dakota State is their only other QB so this could be a team that takes a look at someone like Cam Newton or Blake Bortles as a potential backup.

5 Seasons From Now Starter: Justin Herbert

I’m torn on this because I’m not totally convinced that Herbert is going to be a major player in the NFL but the Chargers have gone all in on him so they have to ride this as far as they can. Herbert could very well be extremely good but he’ll need a lot of protection and weapons around him. The challenge will be taking the Chargers offense that they built around Rivers and retooling it to fit Herbert’s style which will take some time. Anthony Lynn has staked his head coaching job on Herbert working out so he’ll need to fix that asap.

7. Carolina

Much like the Chargers, Carolina will have a real new look in 2020. New QB (Teddy Bridgewater), new coach (Matt Rhule), new system. Rhule is an interesting cat because he’s a major defensive guy, so maybe not that different from previous head coach Ron Rivera, but Rhule is going all in on defense this year (taking all defensive players in the draft). The lack of attention to the offense could prove problematic down the line as Teddy Bridgewater succeeded in New Orleans as a backup because he had a lot of weapons around him to work with. How will that work in Carolina?

Next Season Starter: Teddy Bridgewater

That run in New Orleans worked out really well as Teddy was able to play his way into an NFL starting job. Take note Jameis, Cam, Blake, and others.

Teddy parlayed that success into a 3 year/$63 million contract. Now he’s got the money and the starting job. Carolina has little options beyond Teddy. Will Grier is the main backup and god knows why. Grier was 0-2, with 53% completions, 0 TDs and 4 INTs in his two starts. Potential XFL MVP PJ Walker is also on the roster. Walker was 5-0 with Houston, completing 65% of his passes, throwing 15 TDs to 4 INTs. Walker should be the main backup for Teddy.

Teddy will benefit from having a coach who isn’t on top of him all the time, but if Rhule is too hands off with the offense – including not drafting help for Teddy – this offense could sink real fast. Christian McCaffrey is still there and got a huge extension but can Teddy win with just a running back?

5 Seasons From Now Starter: Some Senior HS Quarterback

Teddy’s contract is for three years, and he’s never gotten a second long term contract from a team. For now the money would be on Teddy not getting a second contract here. This means that you’ll get three years from Teddy and a first round QB is coming in 2023/24. Rhule has not tied himself to anything offensively so far so he can jettison Teddy and bring in “his” quarterback down the road.

8. Arizona

The only thing worth talking about here is Kliff Kingsbury’s pad. I knew money went far in Arizona, but hot damn that house is wild.

Next Season Starter: Kyler Murray

The duo of Murray and Klingsbury had low expectations coming into the 2019 NFL season and they both surprised a lot of people. Murray had a solid rookie season finishing 3rd in TD passes among rookies (trailing only Daniel Jones and Gardner Minshew), but Murray’s rushing TDs helps push him up to a tie with Jones. Murray made a lot of rookie mistakes including holding the ball too long and attempting rushes when he shouldn’t have. The growing pains are a part of the rookie QB experience and between that and Klingsbury gaining experience as an NFL head coach, there’s some hope that Arizona could move up a little in 2020.

Finding a way to raise Murray’s TD rate from the very low 3.7% (27th among starters) while lowering interceptions should be among Arizona’s top priorities.

5 Seasons From Now Starter: Kyler Murray

It’s possible he won’t advance much from what we saw in 2019, but the odds are likely that Murray will still be here in 5 years. That means Murray will get a massive new contract down the road and be Arizona’s franchise quarterback for a long time to come.

9. Jacksonville

Draft: Jake Luton, 6.189

Hell yeah! Go Beavs!

But seriously, Luton won’t play.

Next Season Starter: Gardner Minshew

How good is Minshew? So good that he ran Nick Foles out of town. Foles signed a four year/$88 million contract and 6th round pick Minshew took the starting job and played well enough that Jacksonville is going all in on him.

Minshew’s magical run at Washington State took on folkloric proportions on the Palouse, but now as an NFL player Minshew is taking it to the next level. The Jags went 5-11 in 2018, and Minshew alone went 6-6 in 12 starts. His 21 TDs to 6 interceptions is a solid ratio for a rookie, and finished 2nd in rookie TD passing.

Jacksonville’s defensive heavy draft seems to indicate that they believe Minshew and company are in good shape and don’t need a lot of add-ons. Minshew will have to stay healthy because his current backup is Joshua Dobbs, who was traded from Pittsburgh last season after he lost the job there to Mason Rudolph.

5 Seasons From Now Starter: A current college freshman

Minshew may develop into a good starter, and QB Watch has the belief he will, but Jacksonville history is not great with QBs. Mark Brunell is the only five season starter in Jags history (1998-2003). Minshew would have to overcome two decades of QB play to rise to that level. It’s certainly possible but feels like a bad bet. The likeliest outcome is Minshew plays well and leaves as a FA in a few seasons.

10. Cleveland

It feels like a minor victory when the Browns don’t draft a QB. They have enough faith with their current situation to give it another season before diving back into that end of the pool.

The Browns are also starting over…again. Freddie Kitchens bit the dust and first year head coach Kevin Stefanski, former Vikings OC, will take over. Stefanski is part of the new wave of sub-40 year old head coaches and the jury is way out on whether he’ll be closer to Sean McVay (reached the Super Bowl) or Zak Taylor in Cincinnati (won 2 games).

Next Season Starter: Baker Mayfield

What do the Browns have in Baker Mayfield? As a rookie, Mayfield went 6-7 and appeared to give the Browns a spark of life. But last season he went 6-10, his completion percentage dropped from 63.7 to 59.4, his TDs dropped from 27 to 22, and his interceptions rose 14 to 21. Is this the real Baker? Or was Freddie Kitchens such a train wreck that everything plummeted? QB Watch is unsure, but leaning towards Kitchens being the problem. We’ll know far more in December (ha-ha there won’t be a season), but for now the hope is that Baker will turn it around with a smarter, more offensive minded coach in place. Browns management appears to think so anyway.

5 Seasons From Now Starter: Not Baker Mayfield

This is where it gets tricky. Baker Mayfield has 29 starts as a Cleveland Brown. This puts him 11th in team history. 46 QBs in Cleveland Browns history have started between 1 and 28 games. So Baker Mayfield has already overcome a lot of bad franchise history to get where he’s at.

For Baker to still be the starter after five years seems like a really bad bet. Maybe Stefanski and Mayfield team into a wonderful Coach-QB duo like we’ve seen elsewhere (Sean Payton/Drew Brees), but it seems likelier that neither of them are here in 2025.

11. NY Jets

It can’t get much worse for the Jets after last year’s total disaster. Starting QB/Part-time Muppet Sam Darnold got mono, Trevor Siemian came in, threw six passes and died, and then Luke Falk came in to salvage what was left and was decimated by having to make his first career start on the road against the New England Patriots. Siemian and Falk were so bad that the Jets cut both of them and no one has picked either man up.

Draft: James Morgan, 4.125

Morgan is likely here to challenge for the backup spot. The Jets cut Siemian and Falk and currently have David Fales and Mike White as backups. Fales, who will turn 30 in October, has been in the league since 2014 and has only played in five games and started zero, so he doesn’t appear to be a great option as the primary backup. Mike White, a second year QB from Western Kentucky, was signed by the Dallas Cowboys last year and ultimately cut before the season started. Even though he’s a rookie, Morgan has as good a chance as any of these guys to be the backup heading into the next season.

Next Season Starter: Sam Darnold

As for Darnold, he did help the team rebound when he came back going 7-6 as a starter and posting better numbers than his rookie season. A jump from 57.7 to 61.9 completion percentage, 17 TDs to 19, and lowered interceptions from 15 to 13. The improvements were small but they show signs of Darnold getting more comfortable.

The Jets seem fairly happy with what they have so far and it’s likely that he’ll be the starter all season unless injuries get him.

This does seem like a team that they may reach out and try to sign one of the veteran free agents like a Blake Bortles as a backup.

5 Seasons From Now Starter: Sam Darnold

Between the Jets’ interest in Darnold, and their lack of interest in investing money in a decent backup, Darnold looks like he’ll be here for a while. 

12. Las Vegas

The first season for the Raiders in Las Vegas (whenever this season is played!)! The Raiders went from 4-12 to 7-9 and appear to be trending in the right direction. Not getting Tom Brady to play quarterback might hurt them a bit, but Jon Gruden seems to be grappling with what his team is and how to best utilize them.

Next Season Starter: Derek Carr….probably

Of all the 32 teams, Las Vegas appears to be the most likely team to dump its perennial starter for someone else prior to the season. Carr will be going into his 7th season as starter and with a record of 39-55 has not impressed many people. He was 2nd in completion percentage and top 10 in yards, but 19th in TDs/22nd in TD Rate, so he’s moving the ball but not finishing drives which is going to be a problem obviously. Vegas is likely to stick with Carr for this season because the other options seem worse right now, but don’t be shocked if they decide to bring in an extra veteran.

Who are those bad options? In alphabetical order: DeShone Kizer, Marcus Mariota, and Nathan Peterman.

In reverse order of likely staying with the team/ever playing:

3. Nathan Peterman (career record: 1-3)

            Peterman, who hasn’t played since 2018 due to injuries, has not made much of a splash in the NFL. His 3 TDs to 12 Interceptions is a horrendous ratio and the fact that the Raiders not only signed him last year, but re-signed him is incredible

2. DeShone Kizer (career record: 0-15)

            Yes, that career record is accurate. And yes he has a better chance of making the team. Kizer’s 0-15 record came from the infamous 2017 Cleveland Browns season where he was thrown to the wolves. Is he good or bad? We don’t really know because he hasn’t started a game since that season. He backed up Aaron Rodgers in 2018 and like Peterman was signed by the Raiders in 2019 but never saw the field. Kizer’s career 11 TDs to 24 Interceptions is a slightly better ratio than Peterman’s, and maybe with Kizer all the changes of scenery have helped him overcome that one year with Cleveland.

1. Marcus Mariota (career record: 29-32)

            Mariota is at least better than his fellow backups, and like Kizer will likely benefit from a change of scenery. Things just didn’t work out in Tennessee and that crushing blow of losing your starting job to a quarterback who had been run out of Miami was the final blow. Now, Mariota can start fresh with a new coach, city, offense and have a chance to show what he can do. Gruden is likelier to let Mariota be more of the UO Mariota than Tennessee’s coaches were, so if he does play, Mariota could have a decent showing.

5 Seasons From Now Starter: None of the Above

Carr’s contract carries him through 2022 which means that for him to still be the starter the Raiders will have to give him a massive new contract which based on current performances seems unlikely. As much as Gruden seems to like Carr, Carr has only had one winning season out of six tries. Seems far likelier that the Raiders will look to invest in either a first-round pick in the near future or a solid free agent veteran.

13. Tampa Bay

TB in TB! The Bucs pay Brady big bucks! All the new catchphrases and trademarks are here!

Next Season Starter: Tom Brady

Like there’s any doubt that Brady is going to be the starter.

But…Brady will be 43 when the season starts (or 44 when this season is played next year), and at 43 you’re going to want good backup options in case something should happen. This is where Tampa’s situation gets both dicey and hilarious.

The backups are Blaine Gabbert of backup fame; Ryan Griffin, a seven year veteran who has played in two games and started none; and 2020 UDFA Reid Sinnett. If all goes well, Tampa Bay could be a deep playoff team, or if something happens to Brady this team could be 2-14.

5 Seasons From Now Starter: Well it ain’t gonna be Tom Brady

The risk/reward for Tampa is obvious. Brady gives them a chance to win a Super Bowl now (I said now dammit!), but once he’s gone this team drops off hard. If Brady does stay a few years, Tampa will likely be drafting deep in round 1 where Brady won’t want future QBs taken anyway so this is a team that could have a crash once he’s gone. In that case, Tampa’s QB will whoever they can find at that point whether it’s a rookie QB, free agent, etc.

14. San Francisco

Next Season Starter: Jimmy Garoppolo

He’s still going to be the guy until something drastic changes. Jimmy G is the obvious starter after last year, and honestly doesn’t face much in competition so he should be fine.

The 49ers are sticking with CJ Beathard and Nick Mullens as their backups so good for them for staying consistent. One would think this is the year you trade one of them, but that remains to be seen. GM John Lynch is a wheeler and a dealer so he might decide to move one, but the 49ers do have an irrational love for both of these guys.

5 Seasons From Now Starter: Someone Not Listed Here

Hmm. Jimmy G is the guy for now, but the 49ers built him a contract that gives the team lots of options to get rid of him at almost any point without major cap damage. That’s not the kind of contract you give a quarterback who you think is a guy who will be there for a decade plus. The fact that the 49ers admitted to kicking the tires on Tom Brady makes you wonder what they really think of Jimmy G as the guy who’ll lead this franchise, so I have to say they’ll look somewhere else for their qb come 2025.

15. Denver

From one enchanted franchise of quarterbacks to another. Coming into this season, Denver is actually not far off from where people thought the qb situation would be. Joe Flacco was essentially a one-year stopgap measure to help build up Drew Lock, QB of the future. The only problem is that both Flacco and Lock got hurt during the 2019 season so Lock got less reps than Denver probably hoped for.

But Lock played well in his 5 starts, going 4-1 and boosting the team to 7-9 nearly getting them to a break even season. The sample size was small, but Lock looked better than fellow zero game starter Brandon Allen who despite winning a game for Denver played poorly throughout his three starts and was quietly let go after the season.

Next Season Starter: Drew Lock

Based off Lock’s play you have to think he’s at least the short term answer. GM John Elway didn’t add any major qbs for backup keeping Brett Rypien, who didn’t play last year, and adding Jeff Driskel (see the #3 section on Detroit). Lock should have no trouble beating these guys out during training camp so now the question is how quickly can they develop Lock? He only got to play five games because of a thumb injury and that curtailed a lot of his progress.

5 Seasons From Now Starter: Drew Lock

This spot has been troublesome for John Elway in a post-Peyton Manning world. Elway has drafted, signed, and ultimately cut a lot of quarterbacks in hopes of finding a guy to anchor this spot. Lock might be another Brock Osweiler/Paxton Lynch bust, but for now Denver has gone all in to a point it’s hard to imagine them swapping him out anytime soon.

16. Atlanta

Oh, those heady days not that along ago where the Falcons were up 28-3 and it seemed like the world was at Matt Ryan’s feet. Since then it’s been a big stink down in Atlanta and perhaps it’s time for a change.

Next Season Starter: Matt Ryan

Oh it’s definitely Ryan. The farther we move down the list, the easier this question gets. But in Atlanta’s case, it’s even easier because there’s not much else on this roster. Perennial backup Matt Schaub is still here, at age 38 and soon to be 39, to back up Ryan. Ryan’s health has been fairly good for most of his career although he did miss one game last season. As long as the OL can keep Ryan up, Schaub will be watching the game like most fans. Also on this team is Danny Etling and Kurt Benkert, one of whom won’t be there when the season starts.

5 Seasons From Now Starter: Not Matt Ryan

Ryan is going to be 35 next month (Happy Birthday Matt!), and the idea of him still starting at 40 seems plausible but unlikely. Yes, Tom Brady and Drew Brees are both playing into their 40s but after seeing how the 2004 draft class was dealt a crippling blow last season, it makes one wonder how long quarterbacks will continue to play out. Ryan’s contract also runs out after 2023, and an extension could cost Atlanta a lot of cash. By then don’t be surprised if they’ve drafted a qb and begun succession plans.

The one reason I could see Ryan wanting to stick it out is by this time Brees and Brady will be long gone and Ryan will have a realistic shot at all the passing titles. That might be hard to pass up (get it?) and Ryan might keep going.

17. Dallas

Ho boy where do we start? Dallas is in a continual state of chaos, but now that head coach Jason Garrett was finally taken out behind the barn it could be time for some stability. Mike McCarthy isn’t a sexy hire (in any sense of the word), but he can coach and likely will have more answers than Garrett did.

Draft: Ben DiNucci, 7.231

DiNucci is likely here to contend for the backup spot given the lack of backup talent on the roster. Cooper Rush and Clayton Thorson are not much to write home about so DiNucci probably has a legit shot at making the roster as a 7th round pick.

Next Season Starter: Dak Prescott

Ho boy, where do we start? Prescott should be the likely starter but given how bad the relations have become between him and Dallas management it’ll be interesting to see how things go with him this season. Prescott is by far the most talented qb on the roster, and won’t get much competition from DiNucci and Co.

EDIT: Andy Dalton is here now! He makes for a solid backup for Prescott as he comes with experience and at $7 mil is a relatively cheap backup. The other thing to watch here is if Dak doesn’t play ball in negotiations, does Dalton find a way to slide in and take the starting job in 2021?

5 Seasons From Now Starter: Some FCS guy. Not the current FCS guy.

Ho boy, where do we start? The Prescott/Dallas management situation is reminiscent of what just happened with Washington and Kirk Cousins. That ended well for Cousins who got paid well as a franchise tagged player and eventually with a full contract from Minnesota. Prescott is eager to follow that success by getting his own big contract. Prescott is asking for $40 million a year which sounds crazy now but in two years, provided the American economy doesn’t totally collapse and rely on chickens as currency, all of the top qbs will have that as their salary.

Dallas won’t pay so Prescott is unlikely to stay.

21. Philadelphia

Draft: Jalen Hurts, 2.53

This sure made things more interesting. After Carson Wentz secured the long term starting job from Nick Foles it seemed like everything was good for him. Now, he’ll have to contend with Hurts, a supremely talented but somehow overlooked qb who has a strange tendency to come up short. Hurts’ college career was interesting as he went 25-2 as a starter at Alabama, went to two CFP championships, lost one, then lost the starting job during the second. Hurts went to Oklahoma, went back to the CFP, lost to LSU and then finished second in the Heisman to LSU QB Joe Burrow. So that’s 3 playoff appearances as a starter, two championship appearances as a starter, and then fell to the second round in the draft.

Next Season Starter: Carson Wentz

The great enigma. Who would you rather have?

Player A: 32-24, 63.8% comp pct., 14191 yards, 97 TDs, 35 INTs

Player B: 28-22, 61.9% comp pct., 11901 yards, 71 TDs, 35 INTs

Player A is Carson Wentz

Player B is Nick Foles

Amazingly, there were people clamoring for the Eagles to cut Player A in favor of B. Yes, Foles won the Super Bowl when Wentz was physically unable to play. Wentz also got the team to an 11-2 start and left Foles in a great spot to finish the season. It’s been a struggle for Wentz since then as injuries have crept in far more than you want in your franchise qb. Wentz’ completion percentage has risen while his TD rate and overall TDs have fallen. He still doesn’t make a lot of mistakes. He’s consistently thrown seven interceptions a year the last three, so if he can find a way to get the TD numbers back up he’ll be a top player again.

Whether Wentz can recreate that magic remains to be seen, but the starting job should easily be his. Hurts will be the only real challenger. The only other qbs on the roster are Kyle Lauletta and Nate Sudfield, who are both more interesting for having last names that Word refuses to believe are real words.

5 Seasons From Now Starter: Jalen Hurts

Wentz is 27, but his contract runs out one year before 2025. Hard to imagine a situation where he can stay healthy long enough to get that next contract here. \Wentz looks closer to the Andy Dalton/Cam Newton situation where he’ll be looking for a new team after this big contract runs out.

Hurts is unlikely to stay here that long as a backup without winning the job which could happen after one more big Wentz injury. So let’s put him here and laugh in five years when we’re all dead.

22. Minnesota

Skol! Welcome to Cousins country. Minnesota felt like a team on the verge of breaking through last year, and given the state of the NFC North they should be back as a playoff team. Can this team make any headway though?

Draft: Nate Stanley, 7.244

Training camp fodder.

Next Season Starter: Kirk Cousins

The Vikings have their man. They like Cousins, they love Cousins, they want Cousins to be the guy for a long time, and have treated him well after his debacle in Washington. Cousins appears to have this job locked up for quite a long time.

This will be his 9th season and 6th as a full-time starter, and there’s something a bit off about him. He’s 44-42-1 overall which isn’t great, but he’s been improving in key categories. His interceptions have dropped from 13 to 10 to 6 over the last three seasons a remarkable comedown. His TDs have fluctuated: 27 to 30 to 26, but the TD rate is improving from 5.0%, 5.0% to 5.9%. Last year he had his first 10-win season as a starter which is a nice change. So it’s possible that Cousins can put it all together next season and finally take the Vikings deep in the playoffs.

The starting job should be his. Sean Mannion and Jake Browning, two good Pac-12 qbs who have done nothing in the NFL, are unlikely to beat him out or even see much action. Mannion was the backup last year and only got to play in the final game after Minnesota’s playoff spot was secure. Mannion went 12/21, 126, 0 TDs and 2 INTs. Browning was an UDFA by Minnesota last year and spent the year on the practice squad.  

5 Seasons From Now Starter: Kirk Cousins

Cousins will be 32 in August, and that would make him 37 in five seasons. The Vikings seem pretty sure that Cousins is the guy but his contract only runs through 2023 at the moment. It’s likely that he gets another small extension in 2022 which would keep him there for the full five year period.

24. New Orleans

Draft: Tommy Stevens, 7.240

This seems like training camp fodder, but when you have a franchise quarterback on the wrong side of 40 you have to start wondering what each qb move means. Stevens, a decent qb at Mississippi State, is unlikely to wrest control of the offense from those above him on the depth chart, but he might be someone who sticks around, especially since Drew Brees has had injury woes of late.

Next Season Starter: Drew Brees

Brees continues to be the King of New Orleans, although with Zion’s rise over with the Pelicans maybe his time is coming due.

As far as football goes, Brees is the only real option to work with here. Should they sign Jameis Winston (no official deal as of this writing), that at least gives New Orleans a usable backup and one that could benefit Jameis in the long run. Brees’ age is going to be a factor over the long season, and given that he didn’t make it the whole way last year, so having a capable backup is extremely necessary after the departure of Teddy Bridgewater.

Taysom Hill continues to be an interesting experiment but one that the Saints don’t appear all that interested in. Hill is going to be 30 when the season starts, and has a whopping 13 pass attempts in two seasons. New Orleans will probably have to decide soon just what they plan on doing with him.

5 Seasons From Now Starter: No one on this roster

Brees will be gone in five years, Hill will have vanished from the NFL, and Winston will have moved onto another team. The Saints will be drafting near the top of the draft as soon as Brees is gone so that’s likely when their future savior arrives.

26. Green Bay

Draft: Jordan Love, 1.26

The Packers drafted Jordan Love to replace Aaron Rodgers nearly fifteen years to the day when Green Bay drafted Aaron Rodgers to replace Brett Favre. Truly Green Bay is living the Circle of Life.

Next Season Starter: Aaron Rodgers

Rodgers is in charge here as long as he wants to be (which might not be for much longer given how angry he is right now). Rodgers has been the captain at Lambeau Field for over a decade and nothing has really changed over the last twelve months outside of having his replacement shoved in front of him.

Love won’t be ready to play this season and I doubt the Packers have any interest in putting him out there. But that leaves the backup spot in jeopardy. The main backup is Tim Boyle, a man who went 3/4 for 15 yards last season in his lone passing appearance – deep in a blowout loss to the 49ers. There’s also UDFA Jalen Morton who is unlikely to make the team but will hang on through training camp.

The Packers desperately need Rodgers to stay healthy all season because this is a team that has Super Bowl ambitions but a roster that will make the playoffs through duct tape and sheer will.

5 Seasons From Now Starter: Jordan Love

Well it kinda has to be right? They traded up for him, angered their franchise qb, and have set up expectations that Love will be the next Packer QB for 15 years following Favre and Rodgers. If the succession works, Green Bay will be looked upon as a model franchise. If not, this move will be heavily scrutinized and their GM will be looking for a new job.

27. Seattle

A quiet year in Seattle last year as they look to figure out how to get back on top of the NFC West after ceding control to the Rams in 2018 and the 49ers in 2019.

Next Season Starter: Russell Wilson

Not a controversial pick here. Wilson is one of the most reliable and consistent QBs in the league, and despite his Super Bowl success he somehow feels underrated. Wilson has started every game since arriving in the league in 2012 and there’s little doubt now as to whether he’ll be the Day 1 starter now.

Wilson will have to be good since Seattle amazingly only has one qb on the roster right now. This will likely change as they add a vet like Bortles, Dalton or Newton, but Seattle will have to take great care of the Pride of the Northwest.

5 Seasons From Now Starter: Russell Wilson

Wilson will be 36 in five years, the same age that Aaron Rodgers is right now. This likely means that Seattle can still get multiple good seasons out of Wilson before having to look to replace him long term.

28. Baltimore

Next Season Starter: Lamar Jackson

Jackson had a breakout year in 2019 and has placed himself in the upper tier of starting NFL qbs. One more season like that and people will start moving him nearer to the elite tier of qbs, of which there are precious few right now.

Jackson’s stats were eye popping. After a 6-1 start in 2018 where he completed 58.2% of his passes, threw 6 TDs and 3 INTs, he went crazy in 2019. 13-2 record, 66.1% of his passes were completed, 36 TDs with a whopping 9.0% TD rate (meaning almost one out of every ten passes was a touchdown), and only 6 INTs. While the interceptions went up, from 3 to 6, his interception rate actually went down (1.8% in 2018 to 1.5% in 2019). Jackson improved in almost every facet of the game and these numbers only cover his passing stats. He added another seven TDs as a rusher bringing him to 43 for the season!

Robert Griffith III remains as a backup on the last year of a contract, and 6th rd pick from 2019 Trace McSorley is likely to be the long term backup in B’more.

5 Seasons From Now Starter: Lamar Jackson

It’s got to be Jackson! He’s only 23 and should be here for a long time. The only thing that could mess that up is if Ravens management hassles him on a long term deal.

29. Tennessee

Draft: Cole McDonald, 7.224

For a 7th round pick he currently has a good shot of making the team since Tennessee only has two qbs on the roster. Plus he got rid of the dreads.

Next Season Starter: Ryan Tannehill

Tannehill played his way into a starting job after taking over for failed starter Marcus Mariota. Previously considered a washout in Miami, Tannehill’s resurgence under head coach Mike Vrabel in Tennessee paid off BIG. $118 million big. The deal makes Tannehill a franchise qb in Tennessee for the foreseeable future.

Backups include previously mentioned UDFA Cole McDonald and 4th year pro Logan Woodside who has never taken a snap in an NFL game. This is the Tannehill show, for better or worse.

5 Seasons From Now Starter: Ryan Tannehill

He’ll be 32 in July which makes him 37 five years from now. Ordinarily I’d say this means someone else will be there but the Titans have two reasons to go with him:

  1. They’re paying him a lot for a long time.
  2. They don’t consider him a primary weapon.

Tannehill was subservient to Derrick Henry in the playoffs, and the Titans will likely rise and fall based off Henry’s play, not Tannehill’s. It’s weird to give $118 million to a qb you don’t even trust to throw passes in the playoffs but Vrabel also said he’d cut his own penis off if it meant he’d win a Super Bowl so who knows?

32. Kansas City

The Super Bowl champs now have the tough task of trying to win back-to-back Super Bowls, a feat not done since the Patriots won Super Bowl 38 and 39.

Next Season Starter: Patrick Mahomes

A no-brainer. Mahomes got the Chiefs the elusive ring 50 years after their last championship. Mahomes has been positively deadly since arriving in the NFL and should continue to lead this franchise for years to come.

Especially since there is little else to challenge him for a starting spot. Chad Henne is here, he of 18-35 fame, who hasn’t started a game since 2014. Also XFL standout Jordan Ta’amu, of the St. Louis Battlehawks, is here off a decent campaign where he completed 72% of his passes. Ta’amu might even wind up being the main backup given his young age and recent good play. Henne’s last good year was 2009 when he had his only winning record, 7-6.

5 Seasons From Now Starter: Patrick Mahomes

I know the Chiefs and Mahomes are currently far apart in contract negotiations, but they appear to be held in good faith as opposed to the Cowboy/Dak negotiations which were a train wreck from the beginning. Mahomes is too valuable to let go and KC knows it. A deal will be done and he’ll be here for quite a while.

THE TEAMS WITHOUT A FIRST ROUND PICK

34. Indianapolis

Draft: Jacob Easton, 4.122

Eason appears to be an odd choice at first, but the Colts will have no qbs on the roster in 2021 other than Eason so he appears to be here to be a long term project/backup at worst, and a starter at best.

Next Season Starter: Phillip Rivers

Colts paid too much money for Rivers to sit. Rivers brings all of his experience to a qb-coached team and what appears to be an aggressive offense in hopes of chasing that elusive ring. The Colts have to think they have a shot this year or else this move would be kinda stupid.

Should Rivers run into trouble, Jacoby Brissett is still here, and EMCC legend Chad Kelly is as well.

5 Seasons From Now Starter: Someone in college

It’s tempting to say Jacob Eason since Rivers, Brissett and Kelly are ALL free agents at the end of the season. Eason would have the team to himself but the Colts are likely to bring a vet in to keep the team together while Eason learns.

Eason, a decent player but not a standout at the University of Washington, didn’t impress much and should have stayed in college an extra season. Instead he’ll be on the bench for awhile learning which could prove beneficial but it’s hard to pass on the idea of some other first round qb coming in and stealing the job from him.

37. New England

Let’s see, nothing to see here, right? Same coach, ownership, offense. Looks good to me.

Next Season Starter: Brian Hoyer?

Our first major question mark. New England will be playing without Tom Brady for the first time since just after Hanging Chads were an important topic in our nation’s discourse. New England drafted no qbs, and appears to be going into the season with just Brian Hoyer and Jarret Stidham as their qbs.

Hoyer would appear to be the likelier opener given his vet status and familiarity with head coach Bill Belichick’s system. Yes, Hoyer hasn’t won a start as a qb since 2016 which was four franchises ago in Chicago. But Stidham only attempted four passes in his rookie season, going 2/4, 14 with one interception. It should be Hoyer.

Yes, UDFA Brian Lewerke and J’Mar Smith were both signed and it’s tempting to think Belichick will throw a curveball but it’s hard to bet against Hoyer at this point unless something major happens like a vet signing or a major injury occurring.

5 Seasons From Now Starter: Could be anyone

For the Patriots, five years into the future means the end of everything we know about them. Tom Brady is already gone, Bill Belichick will be 73, and owner Robert Kraft will be 83. The idea that Belichick is still coaching in five years seems unlikely. A new coach means a whole new approach and the likely end of the Patriot Way. Depending on when that new coach takes over we could be talking about signing veterans or a college qb.  

40. Houston

Next Season Starter: Deshaun Watson

Watson has secured his spot on the roster as the starting qb and it appears to be his for some time to come. Watson has had three good seasons in the NFL and appears poised to make a move this season as a hot up and coming qb. He got surpassed a little by Lamar Jackson in Baltimore who was doing everything Watson did, but a little bit better and at a faster growth rate. This could be good for Watson as expectations of Super Bowls drift towards Lamar while Watson can thrive as an underdog.

Other qbs here? AJ McCarron, who once had his wife drooled on by Brent Musberger on live television, and Alex McGough, who constantly has to explained that he didn’t play at Florida Atlantic but “the other one,” Florida International.

5 Seasons From Now Starter: Deshaun Watson

Watson is a franchise qb and will be paid accordingly. His contract expires after 2021 but an extension is likely for him. The only thing that could complicate this is if head coach Bill O’Brien is fired and a new coach doesn’t like Watson.

43. Chicago Bears

Oh boy, the ultimate qb franchise right now. They once traded up one spot for their starting qb and just this week declined to pick up his fifth-year option.

Next Season Starter: Mitchell Trubisky…with peering eyes over his shoulder

This is a real strange one. Trubisky appears to have the inside spot on backup Nick Foles, but the competition will be tough in training camp. A bad performance in preseason could wreck things for either guy.

Trubisky appeared to be the long term answer after his second year when he took a big step forward, but then struggled in season three and it was enough of a decline for Chicago to decline that contract option meaning that this is Trubisky’s last year in Chicago…..unless he has a great year. Chicago’s long term outlook is part of what has kept them in the toilet for so long.

But don’t get things twisted. Foles is a good backup and likely to usurp the starting job before the season is over but he is not without his own flaws. Foles has been incredibly unlucky with injuries. This will be his ninth season and he’s only started 10 games or more twice (2013 and 2015) and even then they were only for 10 and 11 starts, respectively. He’s never started 16, 15, 14, 13, or even 12 games in a single season so reliability is a major problem. Do you want to be on a qb who has never won more than eight games in a year?

The Bears are currently making that bet right now but I think they’re headed for a long season.

Tyler Bray rounds out this crew having been in the league since 2014, with no career starts, and only ONE career passing attempt: incomplete. And that was in 2017.

5 Seasons From Now Starter: Trevor Lawrence?

This is a team that looks headed for disaster. The team has given up on Trubisky, and gambled big on Foles, something that Jacksonville did last year and dumped him for nothing to Chicago. The Bears are better off tanking, letting both guys walk and take Trevor Lawrence.

49. Pittsburgh

The Steelers, an old school franchise, represent the last of the 2004 QB Draft Class still with their original team. Ben Roethlisberger, a career Steeler, is still hanging on in the Steel City even though his time appears to be coming to a close.

Next Season Starter: Ben Roethlisberger

Roethlisberger will get the job because he has the most likely qb on the roster to actually win anything for Pittsburgh. Any chance the Steelers have of returning to the Super Bowl rests on whether or not they can keep Roethlisberger healthy and active the whole season. He only played in two games last season so it’ll be almost a year off for him before he can get back into a game.

The Steelers have some interesting choices ahead of them. They currently have five quarterbacks on the roster and will likely keep three at the most.

The backups:

Paxton Lynch: 1-3 record, 61.7% completion percentage, 4 TDs-4 INTs

Mason Rudolph: 5-3 record, 62.6% completion percentage, 13 TDs-9 INTs

Devlin Hodges: 3-3 record, 62.5% completion percentage, 5 TDs-8 INTs

J.T. Barrett: Never taken a snap

So….Barrett is a likely cut given that he has the least in-game experience. Paxton Lynch, a former first round draft pick for Denver, is the next likeliest cut given that he has not played in a game since 2017.

That leaves Rudolph and Hodges as the likely backups, who both played for Pittsburgh last year when Ben got hurt. Neither was incredibly impressive although Rudolph showed more potential than Hodges. Hodges made a larger name because announcers Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth learned that Hodges’ nickname is Duck and wouldn’t stop calling him that in his one NBC Sunday Night appearance.

5 Seasons From Now Starter: Mason Rudolph…or someone else

Roethlisberger should be long gone by then. He just turned 38 and has had injury troubles as of late so five more full seasons seems a bit unlikely. Rudolph showed the most potential of the quarterbacks on the current roster but there didn’t appear to be a big push to make him the franchise quarterback just yet. Pittsburgh will have to make a choice soon. Both Roethlisberger and Rudolph’s contacts end in 2021 and Pittsburgh will have to pay a pretty penny to keep both on the roster.

52. Los Angeles Rams

Next Season Starter: Jared Goff

Goff, a former NFC Champion, got his reward for that championship by getting a four-year/$134 million contract. The Rams paid Goff and are expecting big things from him. He’ll have to rebound from his Super Bowl Hangover which saw him drop from 32 to 22 TDs and increase his interceptions from 12 to 16. Goff’s numbers across the board dipped, but was that from him, an entire team hangover, or head coach Sean McVay trying to switch things up too much?

We don’t have the answers just yet but we’ll know quickly if the Rams are free falling or about to right the ship. They’ll have to do it carefully as they’re in major cap space trouble and had to jettison key offensive players Todd Gurley and Brandin Cooks.

The starting job at qb is at least set as Goff would get this job simply based on the other quarterbacks listed on their roster: John Wolford, Josh Love, and Bryce Perkins. You don’t know who they are. You don’t know which one is an UDFA do you? In fact, there are two UDFAs in this group and they were both picked up this week! Goff has no competition right now but also no help if anything goes sideways. None of them have any in-game experience or have taken a single snap in the NFL so if Goff gets hurt the Rams are in deep trouble.

The Rams would appear likely then to reach out and pick up a veteran to help add some depth to this team. I don’t know that you can go into the season with three backups who have a combined 0 snaps.

5 Seasons From Now Starter: Jared Goff

Goff’s contract runs out in 2024, one year shy of when this date would come up. Given their salary cap troubles now it’s easy to see how the Rams could decide to move on from a very expensive qb at that point. Annual contracts could be $40-$45 for elite qbs at this point so the Rams might be better off finding a rookie qb and grooming him the way McVay did with Goff a few years ago. But if there was one player the Rams would decide to hold onto given their cap troubles it’s Goff. It’s hard to replace Super Bowl caliber qbs in the NFL and the Rams have their guy for now.

54. Buffalo

Last up are the Bills.

Draft: Jake Fromm, 5.167

This is an interesting pickup given that he slid for days, but wound up on a team where the backups aren’t good, and their contracts are close to being over. Fromm could be a steal for Buffalo who in 2021 could have Josh Allen as the starter and Fromm as the backup as he learns on the job. And with Allen entering his third-year, if he doesn’t work out, Fromm is a very cheap alternative to slide in.

Next Season Starter: Josh Allen

This is the big year for Allen. He’s had two rough years on the job but took a step forward last year, and now the Bills are looking for another massive leap forward. Allen still has a lot of question marks on him in terms of whether he can be the franchise quarterback that the Bills are hoping for. Allen has a 56.3% completion percentage after two years, although it did jump from 52.8% to 58.8% last year. His touchdowns doubled from 10 to 20 as well but he only has a 3.8% career TD rate which is very low compared to other starters. He did drop his interceptions from 12 to 9, a good improvement but he’s also dead last among starting quarterbacks completing passes of 20 yards or more downfield. If he’s to take a step forward he needs to up his completion percentage overall this season, keep the TD rate increasing and find a way to complete bombs downfield. That’s a lot for a third-year quarterback who is trying to lead this team to its first playoff win in 25 years.

Allen has Matt Barkley again as his primary backup, but Barkley is entering his final year of his contract and could be gone soon. That doesn’t leave much for Buffalo besides Davis Webb, a third-year player out of Cal who has never taken a snap in the NFL. Having Fromm there should make for a fun training camp (if there is one) as Webb is likely to find himself the odd man out.

5 Seasons From Now Starter: Josh Allen or Jake Fromm

Buffalo seems to have a fairly easy decision to make at the end of this upcoming season. If Allen plays well, he’ll get his fifth-year option picked up followed by a large extension. If he doesn’t work out, Fromm takes over in 2021 on the cheap and Buffalo finds out if he’s the real deal or not.

NFL Wild Card Playoff Preview

1. Josh Allen (0-0) @ DeShaun Watson (0-1)

This is a real matchup of inexperienced playoff QBs. During the regular season, Allen was 6-2 on the road, and Watson was 5-2 at home, so it appears to be a wash.

Watson certainly had the far better numbers during the year, but Allen played just well enough to win games and keep Buffalo alive all season.

Allen’s 58% completion percentage is going to have to improve in order to keep drives moving deep in this game. Watson’s ability to keep plays alive on the ground is likely to give Houston an edge against a formidable Buffalo defense.

Prediction: Houston wins

2. Ryan Tannehill (0-0) @ Tom Brady (30-10)

This has to be the largest disparity in playoff experience in NFL history. 40 games for #12 against 0 for Tannehill. Tannehill’s 2019 could be described as miraculous. The starter flames out and the wily vet Tannehill comes in and leads a team that was headed nowhere to a playoff spot. Going on the road against a very playoff tested team is going to be a massive problem even though Tannehill is having a career year.

He’ll need that career year to extend for four more quarters. That 70%+ completion percentage and 7.7% TD rate will both have to remain high if they want to slip past New England. New England is coming off one of the worst losses of the Belichick-era so I imagine they won’t let their guard down a second week in a row.

Prediction: New England wins

3. Kirk Cousins (0-1) @ Drew Brees (8-7)

I never know what to make of New Orleans in the playoffs. They’re heavily snake bit and manage to lose games in ways that seem almost impossible. Case in point: Two years ago against Minnesota in the playoffs.

I don’t think Kirk Cousins is particularly good even though he’s two years away from joining Andy Dalton in the 30k club. Minnesota is 4-4 away from home, and New Orleans is 7-1 at home, meaning that Cousins will need a near perfect day to keep the Vikings in this.

Prediction: New Orleans wins

4. Russell Wilson (8-5) @ Carson Wentz (0-0)

Wentz finally gets his chance to show off what he can do in the playoffs. It’s going to be tough because even though it’s a home game, this Philly team has appeared overmatched in almost every game they’ve played. Philly is only 5-3 at home, and will take on a battle tested Seattle team that is 7-1 on the road. Seattle also has extra motivation to win this as a win would likely send them back to the Bay Area to take on the 49ers.

These are two QBs who are especially good at not turning the ball over. Wilson was 3rd in the league with a 1.0% INT rate with Wentz right behind in 5th with a 1.2% INT rate. Whichever QB makes the first mistake is likely to cost their team the game so keep an eye out for that first turnover.

Thank god for this game as I’m not sure I want to pick all four home teams this weekend.

Prediction: Seattle wins

Turkey Day + Lucky Week 13 QBs

Perhaps it’s because it’s the week of giving thanks along with an unlucky number that has caused such QB turmoil in the NFL.

Who’s in? Who’s Out?

1. The incomparable David Blough is in

The Detroit Lions announced that third-string QB David Blough will be starting tomorrow on Turkey Day against the Chicago Bears.

Blough, an UDFA from Purdue, was picked up by the Cleveland Browns in 2018. The Lions liked Blough so much that they gave a 7th rd pick to get Blough and like a turkey stuff him on their practice squad.

Now that Matthew Stafford has a broken spine, and Jeff Driskel is both bad and injured, it’s Blough time in the Motor City.

2. Andy Dalton is back. Deal with it.

The Cincinnati Bengals announced that Andy Dalton is going to return to his starting job after a three week sojourn on the bench. Bengals fans can give thanks that while they’ll lose again this weekend, the team will continue their run at the #1 pick.

3. Devlin Hodges is going to start. Sure, why not?

The Pittsburgh Steelers are handing the reins back to third-string QB Devlin Hodges after he came in and looked competent against the Bengals last week. Mason Rudolph, who has had perhaps the most trying 2019 of any QB, has been benched for the foreseeable future.

In an interview about getting the job back, Hodges stated: “I don’t have anything to lose,” he said. Hard not to be confident in a QB like that!

While no other official QB switches have been announced, here are teams to keep an eye on this week:

1. Atlanta Falcons – While Matt Ryan is the franchise leader in everything, including embarrassing Super Bowl losses, he no longer appears to have a stranglehold on the starter’s job. He was benched last week for Matt Schaub of all people.

2. Oakland Raiders – Derek Not David Carr was benched in favor of Mike Glennon last week. That sort of sums up how things are going for the soon-to-be Las Vegas Raiders.

3. Philadelphia Eagles – Carson Wentz’ hand appears to be holding together through a combination of sheer will and Gorilla Glue. The Eagles may stick with him in hopes of keeping in the race for the NFC East Title, but if things go awry you’ll see Josh McCown taking snaps under center. Normally you only see him when visited by two other spirits on Christmas Eve.

4. Washington – Dwayne Haskins finally got a win! His job appears safe, but there’s lingering resentment among the fan base over a black QB celebrating his first career win. Bill Callahan is coaching for a potential HC job next year so he may be forced to let Case Keenum, Colt McCoy, or a Case McCoy hybrid take snaps in order to quell the noise.

5. Minnesota Vikings – As always at QBW, we look after our own, so we continually root for the demise of Kirk Cousins so Sean Mannion can get a chance to play.

Happy Thanksgiving!

NFL QB Starts

Here’s the current state of the NFL at the Quarterback position. Below is every QB who has started a game this year, along with how many overall starts they have, and their record as starter.

*QBs in bold are not currently starting.

Takeaways:

1. The old guard is disappearing. 6 of the top 12 quarterbacks, and 7 of the top 14 are no longer starting. Some have lost their jobs due to injury (Roethlisberger, Flacco, Stafford) and some have lost their jobs due to younger bucks coming along (Eli Manning) and some have just lost them (Andy Dalton).

The NFL feels like we’re in the midst of a generational shift as the older guard moves away and the younger QBs begin filling their spots in. Brady and Brees are both coming close to the end, and in fact Brees was out for five games earlier this season. The ’04 Triplets (Manning, Roethlisberg, and Rivers) all appears close to the end. Rivers is the only one still starting and he hasn’t looked great. That means Aaron Rodgers, ’05 draft pick, should be getting a bit worried as he’d be next on that list.

2. The second quadrant (9-16) is in flux.

James Winston (#11), Nick Foles (#15) and Mitchell Trubisky (#16) all are questionable to be starters next year. Winston is in the last year of his contract, and while it looks like he may be franchised for another year, the Bucs have not confirmed that Winston will be back in 2020.

Foles, in the first year of his contract, got overshadowed by his replacement Gardner Minshew. Jacksonville will have to flip one of these qbs, and while it’ll be easier to flip Minshew, dumping Foles and his now very large salary may be the wiser move. Building around a QB on a rookie contract makes more financial sense.

Trubisky is under contract through 2021 on his rookie deal, along with a rookie-option year, so he’s not costing Chicago very much right now. Chicago should and will likely bring him back to get one more good look at him before making a real decision. But because he’s on a rookie contract, this is a good situation for Chicago to sign a veteran qb to push Trubisky.

Others: Derek Carr and Kirk Cousins both appear to be overpriced, and potential cap hits in the near future.

RIP Marcus Mariota, we hardly knew ye.

3. Half the league’s starters have under 32 starts, the equivalent of two years or less. While many of these QBs are filling in for injured qbs, the NFL will get a good look at what the next generation of QBs will be.

Watson (#17) and Mahomes (#19) appear headed to be decade-long starters.

The jury remains out on Garoppolo (#22) despite his absurd 17-3 record.

But the jury is really out on Brissett (#18), Mayfield (#20), Allen (#21) and Darnold (#23). Three of the four have a losing record, only Allen at 12-9 bucks that trend, and none of the three have stood out enough to really declare any of them a franchise qb. Each of the four should be back next year on team friendly/rookie deals that give the teams another year to monitor progress and gather intel.

Low-key winner of this group: Lamar Jackson. This guy appears to be the real deal and while a lot of his stats aren’t eye popping, like passing yards, he’s putting together an incredible season with 19 TDs and a 6.8% TD rate (the second highest in the league).

QBS STARTS W-L

1. Tom Brady              277      216-61

2. Drew Brees             268      158-110

Eli Manning              232      116-116

3. Philip Rivers           218      122-96

Ben Roethlisberger   216      144-71-1

4. Matt Ryan               183      105-78

5. Aaron Rodgers        168      108-59-1

Joe Flacco                  161      98-73

Matthew Stafford     149      69-79-1

6. Ryan Fitzpatrick     133      52-80-1

Andy Dalton              128      68-58-2

Cam Newton              124      68-55-1

7. Russell Wilson       122      83-38-1

Matt Schaub              93        47-46

8. Ryan Tannehill       92        45-47

9. Derek Carr              88        38-50

10. Kirk Cousins         84        42-40-2

11. Jameis Winston    64        24-40

Case Keenum            61        27-34

Marcus Mariota        61        29-32

12. Dak Prescott         58        38-20

13. Carson Wentz       50        28-22

14. Jared Goff             48        30-18

15. Nick Foles            46        26-20

Brian Hoyer              38        16-22

16. Mitchell Trubisky 35        19-16

Teddy Bridgewater   34        22-12

17. Deshaun Watson   32        20-12

Matt Moore               32        16-16

Colt McCoy               28        7-21

18. Jacoby Brissett     26        11-15

19. Patrick Mahomes  25        18-7

Trevor Siemian         25        13-12

20. Baker Mayfield    23        10-13

21. Josh Allen             21        12-9

22. Jimmy Garoppolo 20        17-3

23. Sam Darnold         20        7-13

24. Lamar Jackson      17        14-3

Josh Rosen                 16        3-13

25. Kyler Murray        11        3-7-1

26. Kyle Allen             9          6-3

Gardner Minshew    8          4-4

27. Daniel Jones         8          2-6

28. Mason Rudolph    7          4-3

Chase Daniel             5          2-3

29. Brandon Allen      2          1-1

30. Dwayne Haskins   2          0-2

31. Ryan Finley          2          0-2

32. Jeff Driskel           2          0-2

Luke Falk                  2          0-2

Devlin Hodges           1          1-0

Cap out of the bag?

Former Super Bowl appearer and modern day NFL disappearer Colin Kaepernick is suddenly back in the limelight.

The NFL is allowing teams to come watch Kaepernick go through a full workout and have the chance to interview him on this Saturday. Why this Saturday? Because the teams wanted it to be next weekend so they could prepare, and the NFL told them no it had to be this Saturday.

So is this a real tryout? NFL teams have only a handful of days to decide if a) they want to look at Kap; b) they have someone available to see Kap; and c) even if they want to look at Kap, go to see Kap, they then only have a short amount of time to decide to sign him lest someone beat them to the punch.

While this is a likely publicity stunt, it may cause some interest in Kap. The NFL has seen a rash of QB injuries, so a team could do worse than taking a shot on a 32-year-old QB who has less than average miles given he’s had three years off.

If you’re a team like Denver, why wouldn’t you?