QB Watch Mid-Season Review

Post-Mid-Season QB Watch Review

This has been a record season for QB Watch. We’re nine weeks into the season and a whopping SEVENTEEN teams, just over half the league, have found themselves on QB Watch. Some have been on for only a quarter (Oakland) while others have been on QB Watch since the beginning of the season (Arizona, Pittsburgh). Let’s see where we stand.

Presented in Chronological Order

1. Kyler Murray, Arizona

Games played: 9/9

Games started: 9/9

Record as starter: 3-5-1

Reasons to believe this will work:

1. Murray has looked better every week. First-year coach Kliff Kingsbury has been slowly giving Murray more and more plays to work with, and the results are showing. The first week he completed only 53.7% of his passes and has improved seemingly every week. Only once since then has he been under 60%.

2. He doesn’t turn the ball over much. He’s only thrown 3 INTs, on a very low 1.3% of his passes. He did fumble twice, but has had many games without a turnover at all. While his passing yards are often low (only 104 in a win over the Giants), the lack of turnovers has shown he’s more likely to keep his team in games than other QBs.

3. He got 3 wins in his first 8 games. Rosen got 3 wins in 13 starts last year, so there’s at least the small hurdle of Murray was probably the right decision over Rosen. It’s possible that last sentence just jinxed him and he doesn’t win again this year, but the smart money appears to be that at least Arizona made the right decision.

Reasons to believe this won’t work

1. While Murray has had four multiple TD games, he’s had five games without a passing TD. It’s not like he’s picking other TDs up on the ground as he only has two, so there are simply multiple games without any TDs coming in via the quarterback. How long can that be sustainable?

2. His Yards per Attempt remain a roller coaster of a number. He’s had as low as 4 ypa, and as high as 10 ypa. It’s possible he’ll eventually settle on a comfortable range, but through nine games he’s been up and down and inconsistent.

2. Gardner Minshew II, Jacksonville

Games Played: 9/9

Games Started: 8/9

Record as starter: 4-4

It’s no surprise to QB Watch loyalists that Minshew is the true Chosen One in the NFL, with apologies to Josh Rosen. Minshew came in under extreme duress. Starter Nick Foles went down on the second series of the season and Minshew came in with no experience and no reps.

The returns on Minshew have been mixed to say the least. Some weeks he looks like the eventual successor to Drew Brees, and others he looks like he’ll be pumping gas soon if he doesn’t get things turned around.

Reasons to believe this will work:

1. You can’t doubt that mustache.

2. He throws a lot of TDS. They don’t seem to win many games, but the Jags offense can really cook under Minshew. Minshew has thrown 13 TDs in his 9 appearances, with a very high 5.0% TD rate.

3. He gets sacked a lot. His failures mostly come from the fact that he plays behind an incredibly bad offensive line. He’s been sacked 18 times and hurried even more. If Minshew could get time behind a competent o-line there’s little doubt that he could succeed.

Reasons to believe this won’t work:

1. His completion percentage is dropping rapidly every week. 88% in Week 1, 69.7% in Week 2, 66.67% in Week 3, 57 & 59% in Weeks 4/5, then 48 & 46 in Weeks 6/7, before a rebound in Week 8 at 64%.

This is a bad trend. Either defenses have completely figured him out, or he’s not reading defenses correctly, or he’s making bad decisions. Lots of options, but they all appear to be bad. Jacksonville coaches are partially to blame for not correcting things after it had slipped to this degree. With the bye week coming up, it’s likely that Minshew will be out and Foles will reclaim his starting spot. Foles looked good on the one full drive he had this season against Kansas City, so it’ll be interesting to see if he can revive the Jags in ways that Minshew hasn’t.

2. Fumbles. Minshew currently leads all quarterbacks in fumbles at 11. This is possibly due to Minshew trying too hard to make plays happen and not being willing to abandon plays by throwing it out of bounds when he should. It’s possible that Minshew can be trained with time to be better at ball control, but 11 fumbles in 9 appearances is not good.

3. Case Keenum, Washington Redskins

Games played: 7/9

Games started: 7/9

Record as starter: 1-6

Reasons to believe this will work:

1. He has some good numbers. The 1-6 record isn’t good, but Keenum himself is on pace to have his best season yet as a starter. His TD% rate (4.8) is the highest he’s ever had, his career average is 3.6 and 2017 (4.6) was the only other time he’s been above 4%. Likewise, his INT rate, 2.1%, is his 2nd lowest, (1.5 in 2017). If Keenum can play this well, but with slightly better players, he can really make a go of it.

Reasons to believe this won’t work:

1. Nomad. Keenum is on his 6th team in 8 years. He’s on his 4th team in 4 years. Keenum is here to keep the seat warm for Haskins.

2. The rest of the crew. Washington is bad. Real bad. They beat a winless Miami team by a point.

3b. Colt McCoy, Washington Redskins

Games played: 1/9

Games started: 1/9

Record as starter: 0-1

Reasons to believe this will work:

Lol

Reasons to believe this won’t work:

1. He’s never played a full season. He’s been in the league since 2010 and the most he’s played in one season is 13 games.

2. He doesn’t win much. He’s 7-21 as a starter. He hasn’t won a game since 2014. The most he’s ever won in a season is 4 games.

3. He’s a walking concussion. He should have retired after the double concussion he doesn’t remember getting.

3c. Dwayne Haskins, Washington Redskins

Games played: 3/9

Games started: 1/9

Record as starter: 0-1

Reasons to believe this will work:

1. Lack of experience. Washington has taken it slow with Haskins. They’ve refused to rush him into play the way Arizona did with Murray. Washington does not believe Haskins is ready, and has gone to great pains to prevent him from taking the field. They even started Colt McCoy when Keenum was out with a concussion rather than let Haskins be rushed into action and hurt his development. Of course, they had no choice and did eventually start him and he had a less than stellar game: 15/22, 144, 0 TDs. A 68% completion rate, but the other numbers were real low. But if Washington can slowly improve his game each week, there’s certainly room for improvement.

Reasons to believe this won’t work:

1. The curve may be too high. QB Watch doesn’t expect rookies to come in and dominate right away. There’s a large learning curve for every quarterback, and honestly every position. Haskins appears to be very far into the curve, and it also appears that this project may take a while. Haskins has played in two games, and started one. He’s completed a respectable 61.4% of passes, but has thrown 0 TDs and 4 INTs, leaving those two games with a 9.1% INT rate. That’s very high.

2. Who’s in charge? Haskins’ biggest problem may be that he won’t get the support from coaching that he really needs at this time. With Bill Callahan being a placeholder coach until the end of the season, Haskins is stuck waiting to see who his next coach will be. If Washington chooses a defensive coach, Haskins will have to rely on whatever offensive coordinator/qb coach gets dragged along with him. A bad coach hire could damage Haskins for a long time.

4. Luke Falk, New York Jets

Games played: 3/8

Games started: 2/8

Record as starter: 0-2

History probably won’t be very kind to Luke Falk’s brief NFL career. After a successful run at Washington State in college, Falk meandered around the NFL landing on three teams in two years. The Jets wound up having no choice but to play him after a series of bizarre events:

            1. Sam Darnold got mono under circumstances that haven’t been explained.

            2. Trevor Siemian died in a MNF game against Cleveland.

Falk came in off the bench and went 20/25 for 198 yards, and it looked like the Jets might have something. But then he started the next week against New England, which is a bit unfair, and got destroyed. After a bye week where it seemed like the Jets were going to help him out and give him reps, but delayed and delayed hoping that Darnold would be ready they reluctantly gave Falk a few first-team reps and let him sink like a stone against Philadelphia.

After three appearances and two starts, Falk had 0 wins, 0 TDs, 3 INTs, and was sacked 16 times! 16 times in 3 games!

Reasons to believe this will work:

1. None. The Jets cut him as soon as they could and replaced him with David Fales.

Reasons to believe this won’t work:

1. Despite being a young quarterback with potential, Falk has found no takers for his services. It’s certainly possible that over halfway through the season that most teams would rather keep their current backup who has familiarity with the system rather than teach someone everything from scratch, especially as we inch towards the playoffs. So maybe he gets a job in the offseason when franchises have the opportunity to start over. But it’s a bad sign that no one is calling.

4b. Trevor Siemian, New York Jets

Games Played: 1/8

Games Started: 1/8

Record as starter: 0-1

Siemian is really a footnote here as he only survived one full drive before his leg was ripped off by the Browns. Siemian finished the season 3/6, 3 yards. Pretty bad.

Best of luck with your next team!

5. Daniel Jones, New York Giants

Games played: 8/9

Games started: 7/9

Record as starter: 2-5

Reasons to believe this will work:

1. Great White Hope. He’s big, tall, and white. He’s everything a franchise could want in a QB.

2. He’s getting more consistent. After the first two wins, the wheels really fell off for Jones. He threw for less than 200 yards in each of the next two games and completed 55% & 48% respectively. But in the last three games, he’s 223, 322, and 210; and all three games he was well over 60% (63, 68 & 63). The numbers are steadying, and as Jones gets more comfortable his base level should rise.

Reasons to believe this won’t work:

1. What happened? He started his career 2-0 and has now lost the last five. Jones does not have a great crew around him, but he’ll need to find ways to improve to avoid taking Ls every week. If the Giants are going to repeatedly lose they’re almost better off with Eli Manning.

2. Turnovers. He’s thrown 8 INTs and also fumbled 10 times, including 7 fumbles in the last 3 games. Jones does like to run when things fall apart, but he’s going to need to take better care of the ball. The Giants cannot afford to have him turn the ball over 18 times in 6 appearances. He’s averaging 3 turnovers a game!

6. Kyle Allen, Carolina Panthers

Games played: 6/8

Games started: 6/8

Record as starter: 5-1

Reasons to believe this will work:

1. He’s playing well on a team that has holes. Allen’s numbers may not be top of the league, but he’s playing behind a bad o-line, and has been sacked 20 times, putting him in the top half of the league. If the team can develop a solid o-line and give Allen time to make plays with McCaffrey, it’s very possible Carolina could be a playoff team soon.

2. Is it Cam’s team? Cam Newton was 0-8 in his last eight starts (going back to last season). Allen’s 5-1 record is a vast improvement. While Cam may always be associated with Carolina, it’s possible that for 2019 and beyond, the Panthers may feel the need to switch QBs. Cam only has one year left on his contract and it’s possible that Carolina will take the small cap hit by cutting him and letting Kyle Allen develop as the long-term starter.

Reasons to believe this won’t work:

1.  Consistency. Despite his good play, Allen has not been particularly consistent with his numbers. In his three best games he threw 8 TDs and 1 Int. In his three other games he threw 1 TD and 3 Ints. His first two games he had a 70%+ completion rate, and in the four games since he has won 60%+ completion rate and 3 games in the 50% range. His numbers have dipped throughout the season, and Ron Rivera will need to fix that.

2. The numbers don’t appear to be there. He’s 28th in completions, 29th in completion percentage, 27th in yards and 26th in TDs. Yes he’s young, and he may develop but after six starts he’s still in the bottom six in all the major categories. He’s ahead of Andy Dalton in only one category (completion percentage. Andy Dalton is 30th). Allen’s numbers may be too low to be a viable starter in the NFL.

7. Mason Rudolph, Pittsburgh Steelers

Games played: 6/8

Games started: 5/8

Record as starter: 3-2

Reasons to believe this will work:

1. When they let him air, he can air. When Rudolph played at Oklahoma State, he would put up monster numbers. Admittedly, that has more to do with the offensive system that Mike Gundy has put in place than an individual QB, but Rudolph did prosper. When they let him air it downfield in Pittsburgh, he’s had decent success. This is partially due to one of his WRs being a fellow teammate at Oklahoma State.

2. His TD% is incredible. Rudolph is currently 5th in the league for TD rate, only behind Russell Wilson, Matthew Stafford, Kirk Cousins and Patrick Mahomes. 6.1% is a very high TD rate, and one that the Steelers can build off of as they continue to develop Rudolph. For a guy who has only 5 starts, Rudolph is starting at a very high level.

Reasons to believe this won’t work:

1. The short passing. I still haven’t been able to find out if Rudolph’s short passing relates to decisions he’s making or advice he’s getting from the coaching staff. Either way, Rudolph loves the short passing game. And when I mean short, I mean real short. No QB has thrown more passes that fail to reach the line of scrimmage than Rudolph. There were weeks where his average pass was completing two yards behind the line of scrimmage. Rudolph is 30th in YPA at 6.6. He’ll need to improve that if he wants a starting job.

2. It’s not his job. Rudolph, unlike Murray, did not get the starter’s job because he won it, but because the starter got hurt. Ben Roethlisberger should get the starter’s job back as soon as he’s able. While this may not be until next year, it’s unlikely that Rudolph will play so well that the Steelers will choose him over Big Ben.

3. He’s not alone. Even if Big Ben were to hang up the cleats sometime soon, Rudolph is not alone in competing for the job. Devlin Hodges (see below) will be a real contender as he managed to play well in his start. The Steelers will have a choice to make fairly soon about who the long term starter will be and it’s not a slam dunk for Rudolph, based on his play so far.

7b. Devlin Hodges, Pittsburgh Steelers

Games played: 2/8

Games started: 1/8

Record as starter: 1-0

Reasons to believe this will work:

1. Accuracy. In his one start, Hodges went 22/29, for just a hair under 76%. That’s a great start for a rookie qb making a first start under duress. Hodges looked comfortable on the field, and while he did throw

Reasons to believe this won’t work:

1. Announcers seemed far more interested in his nickname and extracurriculars than they were in his QB play. His play wasn’t bad, but it definitely left the impression that he’s more of a sideshow than a potential starter.

8. Teddy Bridgewater, New Orleans Saints

Games played: 7/8

Games started: 5/8

Record as starter: 5-0

Reasons to believe this will work:

1. His play has been damn good. Bridgewater won and won a lot. He won all five starts for the Saints. He completed almost 68% of his passes, and had a very low interception rate, 1.0%. Bridgewater appeared to have total control over the field,

Reasons to believe this won’t work:

1. It’s not his spot. Much like with the Steelers QBs (see above) Bridgewater cannot demand the Saints give him the job. Drew Brees is the all-time passing leader and has earned enough accolades and respect to give him the right to leave when he wants on his terms. Bridgewater, despite his very good play as a backup, will have to wait if he wants the job.

2. Injuries. Bridgewater has played extremely well so far, but something that lurks in the back of the minds of everyone watching (and possibly Bridgewater himself) is the idea that he’s one snap away from going back on the IR. He’s been there many times, and often for long periods of time. While there is no current injury that’s preventing him from playing, there’s a big risk in making him your long term starter.

3. Game management. Lots of people would say that Bridgewater played just well enough not to lose. 3 of his 5 wins were one-score games that the Saints nearly lost. He only averaged 196 passing yards per game, which is good enough for 29th in the league. His intangibles can help make up for that, but Bridgewater may not be the kind of starter the Saints are looking for long term in 2019.

9. Josh Rosen, Miami Dolphins

Games played: 5/8

Games started: 3/8

Record as starter: 0-3

Reasons to believe this will work:

1. Age. He’s still young (not even 23), and has a lot of miles left on him. It’s very possible that if he does bounce around to another team or two, he can find the permanent home/coach he’s looking for. Alex Smith was also bad as a very young quarterback and eventually got enough help to turn it around. It’s far too early to say that Rosen is completely done.

Reasons to believe this won’t work:

1. He’s already been benched for the starter that they benched for him. Rosen being benched for Fitzpatrick was a sign that Rosen was even too bad for the Dolphins to deal with. Miami hadn’t won a game with Fitzpatrick, and hadn’t won a game with Rosen either, but decided that Fitzpatrick was the better option moving forward. Being benched for a previously benched player is never a good sign.

2. 0-2. Rosen struck out last year with the Arizona Cardinals, although most of that wasn’t his fault.. He was drafted into a bad system with a bad coach (who was fired), and he wound up traded for a younger qb. Since coming to Miami, Rosen got beat out by Fitzpatrick, then regained the starter’s job only to lose it. It’s very likely that in 2020 Rosen will be playing for his third team in three years. Unprecedented for a top-10 draft pick to have that happen to him in his first three seasons. The constant bouncing indicates that there are no teams willing to keep him around once they’ve seen him play.

3. 0-3. Rosen lost all his starts, and was horrendous in all three. He threw 200 yards once, getting exactly 200. He also threw 180 yards and 85 yards. He only threw for 85 yards against the Redskins! Rosen is also dead last among all qbs who started a game in 2019 for yards per game: 113.4. This is over 50 yards less than the nearest qb, Matt Moore, who has 164.8.

9b. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Miami Dolphins

Games played: 7/8

Games started: 5/8

Record as starter: 1-4

Reasons to believe this will work:

1. Renewed energy. Being benched for Josh Rosen had to be a wake up call for Ryan Fitzpatrick. His three games since returning to being a starter have been his three best games all season.

His first 4 games: 39/70, 435 yards, 2 TDs, 4 Ints

His last 3 games: 70/105, 760 yards, 6 TDS, 3 Ints

Look at the difference! Fitzpatrick is performing at a much higher level in his 2nd go round this season as Dolphins starter. If he can keep this up, the Dolphins have a legit chance to maybe pick up an extra win or two.

Reasons to believe this won’t work:

1. He’s been benched once already. Getting benched for Josh Rosen was a real slap in the face, and after Rosen’s three starts, Fitzpatrick’s regaining of the job seemed to indicate Miami saying “We have no other options” rather than “We totally trust you.” Miami doesn’t seem to think Fitzpatrick is good, just better than Rosen.

2. Lack of consistency. Fitzpatrick has only started 16 games three times in his 15 year career. The Dolphins are his 8th team in that time span. Fitzpatrick has not been able to find a permanent home, making it clear that most teams (1/4 of the league) don’t think much of him.

3. Age. Fitzpatrick will turn 37 in a few weeks. He’s not only on the wrong side of 30, he’s close to the wrong side of 40. Fitzpatrick’s playing days are closer to the end than the beginning so it’s unlikely that a team, even lowly Miami, will fully invest in him as a starter going forward.

10. Matt Barkley, Buffalo Bills

Games played: 1/8

Games started: 0/8

Record as starter: 0-0

Reasons to believe this will work:

1. Age. He’s still only 29, and has only started more than one game once: 2016. He’s been in the league for seven years but has very few miles on him.

2. Competent. He came off the bench for Buffalo after Josh Allen got hurt, and played pretty well in a bad spot against New England. He kept Buffalo in the game until the very end.

Reasons to believe this won’t work:

1. The end. That very end he got Buffalo to came to a screeching halt when he threw a crippling pick that ended the potential game winning drive.

2. The league has spoken. Much like on “Survivor,” the NFL as a tribe seems to have come to a collective decision on Barkley. He’s had 7 seasons and only started 7 games, 2-5. He may back people up for a long time to come (see Moore, Matt) but the idea of him being a starter seems unrealistic.

11. Chase Daniel, Chicago Bears

Games played: 2/8

Games started: 1/8

Record as starter: 0-1

Reasons to believe this will work:

1. Daniel played well off the bench for Chicago going 22/30, 73% in his first appearance, and then 22/30, 73% in his lone start for the Bears. Daniel appears to be fairly consistent and had a decent showing in both games.

2. The Bears like him. Daniel played well in his two starts last season, going 1-1, and completing just under 70% of his passes. His TD rate has improved from 3.9% last season to 5.0% this season. Daniel may be a potential

3. Trubisky. Is Trubisky good? The Bears still seem to think so, but it’s possible that they’re getting close to making a big decision. Trubisky is 24th in completions, 25th in completion percentage, 28th in passing yards, and 33rd in passing TDs. Yes, a backup has thrown more TDs than Trubisky! Spoilers, it’s Ryan Tannehill in Tennessee, who in 3 starts has thrown more TDs than Trubisky has in 7.

Trubisky’s last start was 10/21, 47.62% and 125 yards with 0 TDs. For a team that still has playoff hopes, Chicago may have to switch things up and fast.

Reasons to believe this won’t work:

1. Age. Daniel turned 33 last month, and while he doesn’t have a lot of NFL miles on him, it’s going to be tough to build a franchise around a QB who is 33 and has 5 career starts (2-3). It’s certainly possible that the Bears will turn to Daniel and ask him to lead, but QB Watch is very concerned because that’s a rare situation and without a real precedent for this, QB Watch remains wary.

2. Turnovers. Despite his good play, Daniel’s INT rate is 3.3%, which would place him 6th highest in the league, only Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jameis Winston, and Ryan Tannehill have been worse. Daniel does only have a small sample size to work with, but the returns show that he may be turning the ball over too much, especially in comparison to Trubisky’s very low 1.4%, which puts him as one of the 10 lowest for starters.

12. Matt Moore, Kansas City Chiefs

Games played: 4/8

Games started: 2/8

Record as starter: 1-1

Reasons to believe this will work:

1. Moore is good. In his two starts, Moore has shown incredible poise and skill in the pocket. He’s thrown 4 TDs and 0 INTs in his starts, and is averaging 271 YPG as a starter which puts him 12th, just behind Aaron Rodgers. Moore has shown that even with limited practice time, and not playing in two years that he’s still capable of being a high-level NFL qb.

Reasons to believe this won’t work:

1. Less is Moore. Moore has never been a full-time starter, never even considered to be a full-time starter, and he seems ok with it. The most games he’s ever started in one season was 12 and that was in 2011. He was a long-time backup in Miami, where he was always serviceable but never good enough to get the starter job. It’s unlikely that he’ll suddenly develop into a starter, especially ahead of Patrick Mahomes, a qb who appears to be a perennial MVP candidate.

13. Mike Glennon, Oakland Raiders

Games played: 1/8

Games started: 0/8

Record as starter: 0-0

Reasons to believe this will work:

1. His brief appearance (just one quarter in one game) left him with ok numbers: 2/3, 36 yards and a TD. It was a limited but nice showing.

Reasons to believe this won’t work:

1. Past experience. Glennon has never been that great as a qb. He’s 6-16 as a starter in the 6 years he’s been in the league. The idea that Glennon will turn it around is possible, but he hasn’t won a start since 2017 and is creeping up on the wrong side of 30. It all adds up to ‘ain’t happening.’

14. Matt Schaub, Atlanta Falcons

Games played: 3/8

Games started: 1/8

Record as starter: 0-1

Reasons to believe this will work:

1. Not much. Schaub hasn’t been a full-time starter since 2012and the injury to Matt Ryan doesn’t appear to be severe enough to fully oust him as starter. So Schaub is a plug-in, and his time as starter will likely be short.

2. No other options. If Atlanta does need Schaub to fill in more, he’ll have a chance to succeed because Atlanta has no other qbs on the roster outside of Danny Etling, practice squad legend, and the free agent market is dire. Hi, Luke Falk!

Reasons to believe this won’t work:

1. Been here before. Schaub was already a Falcons backup (2004-06), went 0-2 during that stretch and then conned the Texans into making him a starter. He wasn’t good there either. He’s 47-46 in 15 years of starting. The Falcons can’t hope for much with

2. The bye week. The bye week came at a great time for Atlanta. Matt Ryan appears to have healed enough that the Falcons will let him start, but as of right now it’s not 100%. Either way, Ryan is getting closer and closer to returning so Schaub’s time is nearing an end.

15. Brian Hoyer, Indianapolis Colts

Games played: 1/8

Games started: 0/8

Record as starter: 0-0

Reasons to believe this will work:

1. Why not? Hoyer went 10-6 over two seasons with a bad Browns team so he’s had success before. This Colts team is much better than those Browns teams, so perhaps coach Frank Reich can manage to get him going.

Reasons to believe this won’t work:

1. His history. Look, I’m sure he’s a nice guy, and I’m sure his teammates love him. But he’s in his 11th season, he’s on his 7th team (not counting his multiple runs with New England), is 16-21 as a starter, and has never started a full 16 game season.

2. Age. He’s also 34. He’s bounced around for many years, and hasn’t been able to stick anywhere. He’s a journeyman qb which is fine for a backup, but it’s unlikely that a team will decide to ever go with him as a full-time starter.

3. Playoffs. The Colts are precariously holding onto the 6th seed in the AFC. While they’re a game out of first in the AFC South, it looks like they’ll need to catch them and snag that division title because the Colts have little room for error in the Wild Card. At 5-3, they’re a game ahead of the Steelers and Raiders (4-4), and 1.5 ahead of the Jags (4-5). All three teams appear to have better qb situations than the Colts if Hoyer has to start for a long stretch.

16. Brandon Allen, Denver Broncos

Games played: 1/9

Games started: 1/9

Record as starter: 1-0

Reasons to believe this will work:

1. Did what was asked and looked good doing so. Allen wasn’t asked to throw 30 or 40 times. He was asked to make a few throws, and made the big ones when they counted. 6 of Allen’s 12 completions were throws that got Denver a first down. That’s a high percentage and it kept many of Denver’s drives alive. He also never looked too rattled.

2. No options. Denver is desperate. Real desperate. With starter and big money qb Joe Flacco out, the Broncos turned to their only healthy qb: Brandon Allen. Even rookie Drew Lock is hurt, so Allen will get to be the starter for what appears to be the rest of the season.

Reasons to believe this won’t work:

1. Mild success. Allen had decent numbers for a guy with 0 NFL starts, 12/20, 60%, 193 yards and 2 TDs. Those are all solid for a person’s first start. But they played Cleveland so what can we really determine? Not much, to be honest. Allen played ok, and Cleveland likely aided him to a degree. We’ll know more after a few starts.

17. Ryan Finley, Cincinnati Bengals

Games played: 0/9

Games started: 0/9

Record as starter: 0-0

Reasons to believe this will work:

1. Faith from the franchise. Finley was named starter after long-time punching bag Andy Dalton was sent to the bench. Finley, just a rookie, is going to be given a real chance by the Bengals to showcase what he can do.

Reasons to believe this won’t work:

1. Well….it’s the Bengals. Even if Finley plays well, he’s going to be surrounded by an awful crew and there’ll be limited chances for him to get the team moving. Perhaps in 2020 if he gets to keep the job, Finley will also have some new good players to work with. But it’s also the Bengals so the odds of that happening are low.

Jaco-be Gone? Last Chance U time in Indy

Indianapolis Colts starter Jacoby Brissett does in fact have an MCL sprain and will be re-evaluated later in the week to determine if he can start against the hapless, but surging Miami Dolphins.

Brian Hoyer, who hasn’t started since 2017, and hasn’t won a game as starter since 2016, will get the start if Brissett is unavailable.

Backing up Hoyer will be Chad Kelly, late of the Colts practice squad, and formerly an enrollee at Last Chance U’s East Mississippi Community College in lovely Scooba, MS.

Most people will point to Kelly being a nephew of Jim Kelly, which is interesting, but QB Watch will tell you that the only real connection to Buffalo that Chad Kelly has is he was arrested there for trying to fight a bouncer.

Why the Broncos Are the Team to QB Watch this Week

1. The Denver Broncos have been hilariously bad all season. They’re 2-6, have lost 4 games by a single score, and somehow weren’t really in some of those games.

2. New coach Vic Fangio is a walking aneurysm. The man finally gets to be a head coach after decades of assistant coaching and this is his reward. He’s one more bad game away from being the guy in Scanners. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qnp1jfLhtck

3. The QB situation is a mess. Joe Flacco hasn’t worked out. Well I’m sure he worked out and lifted weights at some point, but Flacco has not been the success that people hoped for.

4. The O-line is a mess. Flacco has been sacked 26 times in 8 games, which isn’t surprising as to why Flacco’s body is banged up.

5. The New QB situation is a mess. Brandon Allen will get the starting job now that Flacco is out 4-6 weeks, but the backup situation is a disaster. Rookie Drew Lock appears to be the Bronco QB of the future, but the Broncos are unsure as to whether or not they’ll let him backup Allen this weekend. Lock’s thumb was injured, but he claims it’s healthy, the team does not. Excellent situation.

6. The backup. Brett Rypien, both former and current Bronco, is likely to get the backup spot. Rypien, an undrafted free agent, has never taken a snap in an NFL game.

7. This weekend. Brandon Allen hasn’t taken a snap in an NFL game either so both the starter and backup will be flying blind out there behind one of the league’s worst offensive lines.

8. Be sure to watch Cleveland @ Denver this weekend because the Broncos are likely to put on a classic QB Watch display.

QBs coming soon to QB Watch

1. Ryan Finley, rookie backup to Andy Dalton

It’s hard to imagine Dalton hanging onto his job for much longer. He’s in his 9th season as Bengals QB, but is also 0-8 this year as a starter. Dalton hasn’t won a game since October 28, 2018 when he beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 37-34. It will over a calendar year since that win this week.

Despite the 0-8 start, and the many bad games that have transpired this year, Ryan Finley hasn’t been tapped for any garbage time play. Dalton has taken every snap in eight horrendous games. But that will have to change relatively soon. How long can first year Sean McVay-lite coach continue to wallow in despair without trying anything new? Wasn’t he hired to be the genius coach that all 33 year olds are?

Finley is likely to see some time soon, and the possibility is that it could revitalize Cincy in a way that Dalton simply can’t provide at this point. Dalton only has one more year on his contract after this so they could choose to cut or trade him during the offseason with minimal cap hits.

Finley may not be the long-term answer at quarterback for Cincinnati, but neither is Dalton. Cincinnati sure looks like they’ll either have the first or second pick in the 2020 Draft, and should likely take that opportunity to investigate a potential QB of the future.

2. Brandon Allen, backup to Joe Flacco.

            Allen is in his fourth season in the NFL, and is relatively untested, but Flacco is getting tested every week and is failing hard. Flacco, the next in the Tall White QB Saviors series in Denver, has proven to be just as big a bust as the previous entries: Brock Osweiler, Paxton Lynch, Trevor Siemian, etc.

            Flacco had a good run with Baltimore, culminating in a Super Bowl win and today he joined the 40,000 passing yards club. A very solid career, but clearly he has little left, and the poor surrounding cast isn’t helping.

            While Brandon Allen is unlikely to turn the ship around, John Elway might want to consider youth, and someone who can scramble when the pocket inevitably collapses, over the old tried and true QB who isn’t lighting the world on fire in 2019.

But let’s look at the facts:

            1. Joe Flacco has thrown 6 TDs and 5 INTS in 7 games.

2. His 2.6% TD rate is the lowest in his career.

3. It’s the first time he’s ever been under 3.0%.

            3. Flacco is 2-5 this season as a starter, and hasn’t won 10 games in a season since 2014.

            4. It’s time.

            Denver may need to look elsewhere for a long term answer at QB, but just like with Finley and the Bengals, the Broncos could gain a sliver of momentum by switching QBs.

3. David Fales, backup to Sam Darnold

            Signing a QB named Fales is tempting fate even if it’s only a homophone. Darnold has had mono so he may get a pass going forward, but the Jets need something and they need it fast.

            Yes, the Jets have been unlucky. Besides Darnold getting mono, Trevor Siemian died in the first quarter of his first appearance and the Jets were forced to play Luke Falk despite the fact that Falk does not appear to understand what a quarterback does.

            Fales may not either, but at 1-6, what do they have to lose?

            Well, more games of course. But they’re losing those games anyway!

            “But Sam Darnold beat Dallas….”

            Yes, that’s a great point. But how did he beat Dallas? Nobody knows. Dallas doesn’t know, and the Jets sure don’t know because they haven’t figured out how to replicate it since.

            “But his numbers aren’t terrible…”

            True, Darnold is far from the worst QB in the league, and his completion percentage is up over last season. But  he’s a turnover machine. His 4.8% INT rate is way over his 3.6% from last year. His 2.9% TD rate is way down from 4.1% last year.

            Maybe it’s the mono, and Darnold just isn’t ready to be a full time starter again. If that’s the case, the Jets need to give him the proper rest and let Fales take over. If he is healthy, he may need to be benched in order to give him some time to contemplate.

The Curious Case of Andy Dalton and Ryan Fitzpatrick: 30K, But Mostly Ls

Andy Dalton and Ryan Fitzpatrick joined the 30,000 passing yard club on the same day. It was a major achievement for two quarterbacks who have managed to elude major achievements most of their career. Besides Dalton and Fitzpatrick, 23 quarterbacks have finished their career between 30,000 and 39,999 passing yards.

The 30k club is certainly a less prestigious club than the 40k club, which remains an outside possibility for both Dalton and Fitzpatrick. Both qbs will need 3-4 more seasons as a starter which for Fitzpatrick seems really unlikely given that he was benched earlier this season for Josh Rosen. Dalton probably doesn’t have 3-4 seasons left in Cincinnati as a starter, so he may need to accomplish with another franchise.

But beyond their future possibilities, who exactly is in this club with them?

The makeup of this club is quite staggering as it ranges from multiple hall of famers to qbs who managed to hang around for a long time without winning anything (Dalton at least won’t be lonely).

1. Modern Hall of Fame QBs (4): Troy Aikman, Jim Kelly, Kurt Warner, Steve Young,

            All four of these men are here because of either injuries or years spent in another league that limited their ability to reach 40,000.

            Aikman, a former #1 pick, won three Super Bowls in Dallas as part of their successful early 90s regime. 40k eluded him as he had to retire at a relatively young age due to concussions (34). Besides the concussions, Aikman played with the all-time leading rusher, Emmitt Smith, who because of his success limited Dallas’ passing game at times.

            Kelly, went to four consecutive Super Bowls (the only one on this list to do that), and was the leader of a hyper-effective passing game in Buffalo. Kelly should have easily finished in the 40k club, but missed two NFL years because of playing in the USFL where he put up 9800 yards as a passer there. Had he played in the NFL, he might not have thrown for 9800 yards in two years, but he needed less than 5k to reach 40,000. Kelly also retired young (36) due to concussions.

            Warner started his career late rather than have it end early. Because the NFL is run by morons, Warner didn’t get a chance to start until he was 28. The prior four years he was either bagging groceries at a supermarket, playing in the Arena League or even in NFL Europe. By the time he was done, he had won a Super Bowl, reached another, and finished as a top ten passer all time in QB rating. The four years he missed would have pushed his 32k up into the 40k range.

            Young, a 6 time league leader in passer rating, had a career that was a real Catch-22. Had he wound up somewhere other than San Francisco he likely would have started for the five years he sat as a backup, but also would have put up lesser numbers considering he would have played without Jerry Rice. But he did wind up in SF, after 2 years in the USFL, and 2 years in Tampa that were rather unproductive. After five more years sitting on the bench, Young took over as starter of the 49ers and never looked back. He won a Super Bowl, got to two other NFC Championships, and led the league in almost everything during that time. Young retired in 1999 at age 38 due to concussions, but because he had sat for so many years as a backup his overall body was in good shape which possibly prevented another run or two for him and the team. He finished at 33k, but having either played in another league or sat as a backup for eight years, he could have easily finished higher.

. Other Hall of Famers (3): John Brodie, Sonny Jurgensen, Y.A. Tittle

            This group mostly played in the Super Bowl era, but played prior to the passing boom that came later. This group is unlikely to have finished any higher than where they did.

            Brodie retired with 31,548, which was the 3rd highest total when he retired in 1973. He was also a Scientologist so success continued to elude him in most facets of his life.

            Jurgensen was a success for Philadelphia and Washington, but never quite got over the hump as a starter. Limiting his legacy is the 1973 season where he led the team to the Super Bowl but couldn’t play in it due to injury.

            Tittle, who like Dalton has never won a playoff game, is unlikely Dalton in that he led the Giants to 3 straight NFL Championship Games. Tittle’s 33k was unheard of in a mostly running/pre-Super Bowl era.

3. The Super Bowl Winners, Who aren’t HOFers: Phil Simms

            This relatively small group is home to just one man: Phil Simms. Simms led the Giants to Super Bowl XXI, and was the starter for most of the 1990 season before getting hurt and turning things over to Jeff Hostetler who won Super Bowl XXV for them. Had Simms won a 2nd Super Bowl as a starter, there’s a chance he’d be better remembered. As it is, most considered him a good qb who played with an elite defense, essentially being listed as a slightly better Trent Dilfer/Brad Johnson. This is a bit unfair as Simms is far ahead of both of them in every category, but Simms was also mostly unremarkable on the field, though you could make the case that’s because Bill Parcells favored a strong run game which often didn’t take advantage of Simms’s skills.

3b. John Hadl

            Hadl gets his own subset of this group because much like Jurgensen he was heavily responsible for the Chargers winning the 1963 AFL Championship, but due to injuries he did not play in the game so he did not get the win as a starter. He played 15 more years but never was able to get his teams back to postseason success, finishing 0-2 as a playoff starter.

4. The Super Bowl Runnerups (5): Ken Anderson, Boomer Esiason, Matt Hasselbeck, Donovan McNabb, Steve McNair

            Anderson, the all-time passing leader for the Bengals, took the team to Super Bowl 16, where he lost by 6 to the 49ers. This section of the list is perfect for Anderson as this list favors above-average qbs who often played on teams that weren’t good.

            Esiason is probably most remembered for standing on the sideline while Joe Montana took his Super Bowl ring away from him, but Boomer Esiason had a very good career, even winning the MVP in 1988. He finished 2nd all-time in most categories for the Bengals, and would have been first but he was abruptly traded to the Jets in 1993. Esiason was seemingly never on a good team and it most likely cost him a shot at 40k (he finished with 37,920). The Bengals suffered for a long time on his watch, either due to strange injuries (Ickey Woods) or the defense was bad (almost every year). With the Jets, Esiason played three years for three coaches, a dubious feat (Bruce Coslet, Pete Carroll and Rich Kotite). The three years amounted to very little and he found himself in Arizona playing for the Cardinals. For a former MVP he probably deserved better but found himself mired playing for garbage teams for over a decade.

            Hasselbeck is a weird one. He was a consistent starter for a decade, always solid but never great (pretty common for a lot of this group) and his time in Seattle did lead to one Super Bowl appearance. Despite all his success in Seattle, the Seahawks decided that Tavaris Jackson of all people was a better option and let Hasselbeck walk to the Tennessee Titans in 2011. Jackson was bad enough that Seattle wound up with Russell Wilson a few years later so maybe it worked out.

            McNabb had an uphill fight from day one. When he was drafted and walked across the stage to shake the commissioner’s hand, the Eagles fans lit him up with boos. Years later, the Eagles fans would come around and appreciate the success McNabb compiled in Philly. Four NFC Championships, and one Super Bowl Appearance put him as one of the more successful QBs of the early 2000s. His 9 win playoffs are tied for 2nd with Kurt Warner and Jim Kelly in this club.

            McNair was a solid but mostly unsuccessful quarterback. He led the Titans to within a few yards of tying Super Bowl 34, but lost by a TD 23-16. Possibly more well known for what happened off the field at this point.

5. The Conference Runnerups: Mark Brunell, Jay Cutler, Jim Everett, Alex Smith

            Brunell, the all-time leader in every passing category for the Jacksonville Jaguars, was also involved in their first trade. He was traded to Jacksonville from Green Bay in 1995. Brunell took the Jags on a miracle run in 1996 where they came up just short to the New England Patriots, also missing a chance for Brunell to play his former team, the Green Bay Packers, in Super Bowl 31.

            Cutler, where to start? One of the first many Next Big Things in Denver and never quite lived up to the hype there. After a move to Chicago, Cutler settled down and even made the playoffs once in 2010, reaching the NFC Championship that year before losing to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Cutler wasn’t able to do what Rex Grossman did. Cutler also became a staunch anti-vaxxer, an odd move for a guy who has lived his whole life with Type-1 diabetes, and presumably would want a vaccination for that.

Everett, who does not like being called Chris, is another that may surprise people to be on here. Everett eked out a semi successful career passing for over 34k yards in an era where not many were able to do that. Everett led the Rams to the 1989 NFC Championship where the Rams likely could have had a strong start if not for Ronnie Lott’s miracle block of a pass to a wide open Flipper Anderson. The Rams never got back on track and Everett got so rattled that he sacked himself on what became known as “The Phantom Sack.” Everett never quite got things back on track and despite starting for teams for eight more years he never got back to the postseason.

            Smith might be the most surprising name on this list. A former #1 pick by the San Francisco 49ers, Smith was headed towards the all-time bust category before QB Whisperer Jim Harbaugh turned Smith’s career around. Smith flourished under Harbaugh, taking the 49ers to the NFC Championship in the very first year Harbaugh got there. In Year 2, Smith took an even bigger step finishing the year with a 70.2% completion percentage, his best ever. He threw 13 TDs in 9 games, while only throwing 17 the year before in 16 games. Had he not got injured Smith likely would have had the best year of his career in San Francisco. Instead, he lost his starting job and watched as a different QB took them to the Super Bowl. After leaving San Francisco, Smith continued his newfound winning ways. Smith, who had never had a winning season prior to Harbaugh, only had winning seasons the rest of his career, going 50-26 with Kansas City over 5 seasons. Smith went 6-4 in his one season with Washington, which may be his last due to a crippling leg injury.

Despite the slow start to his career, Smith is in the top 25 in wins all-time for QBS.

6. The Modern Era Guy: Tony Romo

            Uncle Tony is here all by himself, a dubious distinction. This group could be called the Unlucky QB because Romo seemingly never got any good break. Despite passing Aikman and becoming the all-time Dallas leader in TDs and Yards, Romo always felt like a runner-up given that he could never reach those playoff heights that Aikman and others reached before him. Romo has to be the most successful Dallas QB to never even reach the NFC Championship.

            His best break may have been when he was picked to be the next analyst for CBS and has quickly risen to become one of the most popular analysts in the game.

7. The Not Modern Era Guys: Steve DeBerg, Dave Krieg

            DeBerg is the ultimate runner-up quarterback in NFL History

                        – Was the starter in San Francisco until Joe Montana was deemed ready

                         – Was the starter in Denver until John Elway was drafted

                         – Was the starter in Tampa Bay until Vinny Testaverde was brought in

                         – Was the starter in Kansas City until Dave Krieg was brought in

            He ultimately retired in 1993, but was talked into coming out of retirement in 1998 by the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons then went on a miracle run, ultimately reaching the Super Bowl, losing mostly because Eugene Robinson got arrested the night before for trying to hire an undercover cop as a prostitute. DeBerg did start one game that season but played terribly, and was benched for Tony Graziani.

            Krieg, a legend in Seattle, has to kick himself some times for when he was born. He finished his career with 38k, but looking at how modern QBs throw, Krieg could have been in the 60k club right now. He played 19 years (1980-1998) and was often the quarterback on good, but mostly average teams: The early 80s Seahawks, the early 90s Chiefs (Krieg was also benched for Montana), and the Detroit Lions (any time period).

Krieg didn’t win a playoff game after 1984, but somehow finished 3-6 overall.

8. The Real Not Modern Era Guys: Jim Hart, Norm Snead

            Hart, who played from 1966 to 1983, is still the Cardinals’ all-time passing leader, despite the fact that he played when they were in Chicago and they haven’t been there in over 35 years. He played on a massively unsuccessful team and had he played elsewhere it’s possible that he would have found more success at winning even if it meant giving up personal success (yards, Tds, etc.)

            Norm Snead was the last quarterback to win a game despite having a passer rating of zero. On November 14, 1976, against his former team, the Washington Redskins, he won the game while completing 3 of 14 passes for 26 yards in a game that had no touchdowns, winning 12-9.

Yes, it’s strange to arrange guys on a passing yard list by overall success, but it’s a stronger way of looking at how each QB ultimately fared.

So where will Andy Dalton and Ryan Fitzpatrick fit? Dalton is currently 0-4 in the playoffs and hasn’t even sniffed a whiff of playoff success so it’s unlikely that he fits anywhere near the top of this list. Dalton may wind up with Romo in the “Modern Era” category, but even Romo managed to win multiple playoff games and was always considered a near the top QB, even if he was never elite. Dalton may have been considered a Top-10 QB back when he was younger, but it has been years since he was able to have that mantle applied to him. The likelihood is that Dalton will be the leader in a new category: Post 2004 rules change QBs who found no on-field success. Now that’s a wordy title, but it fits.

            For Fitzpatrick, he’s a real enigma. He was the first quarterback in NFL history to throw 400 yards or more in three straight games, but has also been benched for Geno Smith and Josh Rosen. Unlike Dalton, who has made the playoffs four times (all losses), Fitzpatrick has never played in a playoff game, or even been on a team that made the playoffs.

            A new category of Playoff Failure QBs is likely.

Ryan is cryin’, New Matt is where it’s at

Matt Ryan’s 154 consecutive games started streak has come to a shocking end as he has been ruled out for tomorrow’s game with the Seattle Seahawks. The Atlanta Falcons will start long time backup Matt Schaub, who will get his first start since 2015.

Schaub has been with the Falcons for the last three years, but he hasn’t started a game during that time, last starting for the Baltimore Ravens.

He last started for the Falcons in 2005 before tricking the Houston Texans into letting him start for them over the next seven years.

Schaub is one of the forgotten QBs from the great 2004 Draft. He’s only 30,000 yards behind Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, and Eli Manning, and only several hundred TDs behind them.

Danny Etling, former New England Patriot, has been signed off the practice squad to be the backup in the game.

Kansas City to get More More Moore

The Kansas City Chiefs have confirmed that Matt Moore will start on Sunday after Patrick Mahomes was officially ruled out for this weekend’s game against the Green Bay Packers.

Mahomes’ knee is not healed enough for play, and he was unable to be cleared.

Matt Moore will get his first start since 2017. He will be backed up by Kyle Shurmur (whoooooo?), son of New York Giants coach Pat Shurmur. Kyle Shurmur survived several years under Derek Mason at Vanderbilt, so I imagine he’ll be just fine against Green Bay should he see action.

Falk on the Road

The Pac-12’s all-time passing leader is off to find his forever home. Luke Falk, a one-time New York Jet, and two-time NY Jet starter, was sent packing after failing to make the entire 0-4 Jets team good.

Now that the starter Sam Darnold has sort of recovered from mono, the Jets are confident that they’re better off watching Darnold’s spleen implode this week rather than watch Falk flail around the dumpster fire the Jets have put together.

Falk would have been the backup but the aptly named David Fales, who has already been released once this season by the Jets, was still available.

Fales briefly played in last Sunday’s debacle in Philadelphia, but was unable to even attempt a pass as he was sacked in his only play that was likely to be a forward pass.

Fales has never started an NFL game, and not thrown a pass in a regular season game since 2017 when he played for Miami.

Keenum back on the Case

The Washington Redskins don’t do anything normally.

After choosing broken leg recovered and walking concussion poster boy Colt McCoy at QB last week, Washington has turned around and decided 0-4 starter Case Keenum is the man to take down Miami.

Keenum’s baffling 68% completion rate has someone netted nothing positive for the team.

Dwayne Haskins continues to exist on the sideline.

Sit Sit Rudolph, Welcome in Devlin

The Pittsburgh Steelers continual QB struggles roll along. Mason Rudolph, forced into replace Ben Roethlisberger, has been ruled out for Sunday’s game against the Los Angeles Chargers.

Devlin Hodges, undrafted QB out of Samford, is going to get the start this weekend.

Hodges was 7/9, 68, 0 TD, 0 INT in relief work last weekend against Baltimore.